Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack
Boston Red Sox
The Boston Red Sox are obviously one of the best offenses in the MLB, and that is going to be a problem for the Los Angeles Angels tonight with Jaime Barria on the mound. Currently, the Red Sox are first in the league in team batting average (.273), second in the league in team runs scored (668), and ninth in the league in team home runs (180). Vegas has this game set at 12 total runs, and the Red Sox are -150 betting favorites, giving them an implied run total of 6.7, the highest on the slate. Most fantasy owners are going to ensure exposure to this game, and that makes it the chalk stack of the night.
Jaime Barria has struggled with the long ball this season, allowing 1.5 HR/9, and tonight should be no different. In the last 15 days, he has an average exit velocity on batted balls of 97 MPH, a fly ball rate of 60%, and a hard hit rate over 50%. The Red Sox are better at home, and Barria is worse on the road. He is currently sporting a 10.13 road ERA compared to a 2.38 home ERA. His batting average allowed to opposing teams is .349 on the road and .214 in Los Angeles. Though he has been pitching well of recent, allowing only six earned runs in his last three games, all of those earned runs came via home runs. The power bats scattered throughout Boston’s lineup should be able to take advantage of Barria’s mistakes, and home runs are bound to happen tonight. This is definitely a stack that fantasy owners will want to partake in, especially in cash games.
Wildcard GPP: Low Owned Stack
Baltimore Orioles
The Baltimore Orioles are a sneaky stack tonight, as their 38-76 record tends to not interest most fantasy owners. With only 143 team home runs and a .244 team batting average, it is always difficult to justify stacking such a terrible offense, but tonight is different. The Houston Astros are traveling to Baltimore, and with Wade Miley scheduled to take the mound, the Orioles could put up enough offense to benefit fantasy owners in tournaments.
Wade Miley is a fantastic pitcher at home. He sports a 2.02 home ERA, and his batting average allowed is .187 in Houston. However, on the road, both those numbers drop significantly. His road ERA is almost 4.00, and his road batting average allowed is .235. Vegas has this game set at 10.5 total runs, and the Astros are -235 betting favorites, which gives the Orioles an implied run total of 4.1. In the last 15 days, Miley has a strike percentage of only 56%, which could cause problems down the road, and he is allowing fly balls at a 37% rate. His hard hit rate is identical to his fly ball rate, and the Orioles have a serious chance to impress tonight. Batters like Trey Mancini always perform well, and even batters like Pedro Severino are starting to step up for the team. There is enough power scattered throughout this lineup to make them worth considering in tournaments.
Hidden Gem: Value Pitcher
Drew Smyly
Drew Smyly is too cheap tonight against the San Francisco Giants. In his only road game this season, he struck out 8 batters and allowed only 1 earned run, scoring just under 25 fantasy points. Against left-handed starters, the Giants team batting average dips from .308 to .290, and their power drops as well, as their team slugging percentage is .403 against right-handed pitching and .378 against left-handed pitching.
Smyly has impressed since getting a chance to prove himself earlier this season. He is still technically on the bubble, and it is unsure whether or not he will remain in the Philadelphia Phillies’ rotation as time progresses, but for now, he has plenty of upside. In his last 3 games, he has over 20 fantasy points in two of them and under 10 fantasy points in none. He allowed 5 earned runs to the Chicago White Sox, but he also struck out 7 batters, scoring 12.3 fantasy points. He has great strikeout upside, and if the Giants fail to score runs tonight, which frequently happens with their offense, Smyly should easily hit value. His price tag should be much closer to the $7.5K range, especially considering he is a -119 betting favorite tonight.
Hidden Gems: Value Hitters
Guillermo Heredia
Guillermo Heredia is worth consideration tonight in tournaments due to his very low price tag. He has home run upside, as well as stolen base upside, and despite not being consistent, he is far too cheap. In his last 10 games, he is hitting .235 with 1 double, 1 home run, 4 RBIs, and 1 stolen base, averaging 6.6 fantasy points per game. He is expected to hit seventh tonight for the Tampa Bay Rays, and he enters the game with positive 0.113 ISO and 0.129 wOBA differentials against left-handed pitching. As far as advanced metrics are concerned, he is due for positive regression. In the last 15 days, he has an average exit velocity on batted balls of 97 MPH, a fly ball rate over 50%, and a hard hit rate over 60%. He is also currently expected to be owned at under two percent, which makes him an even better tournament option.
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