Pitcher
Chris Paddack (1.65x multiplier)- Paddack is the second-best pitcher on the slate behind Clayton Kershaw, and I love that we are getting him over 1.5x points. He still struggles to put batters away, but for his career he sports a solid 3.77 SIERA with over 26% strikeouts. The best part about him is his control, which helps neutralize the pitch count concerns. He has walked just won batter this season after posting a sub-6% walk rate in 2019. Despite being a tough offense, he has faced Arizona four times in his career and never allowed more than a run against them. They have the second-lowest implied team total on the slate at just three runs putting him firmly in play.
Building Blocks
Matt Kemp (1.45x multiplier)- This is one of my favorite spots on the slate. Playing the Rockies out of Coors is never something people like to do. Tonight should be different, however, against Nick Margevicius and the Mariners bullpen. This is legitimately one of the worst pitchers in the entire MLB, and I couldn’t be more excited to stack against him. He allowed a .200 ISO to both sides of the plate in 2019, and struggles with power. He allowed a .250+ ISO on his fastball, a pitch he throws over half the time to both right and left-handed hitters. We know that Kemp crushes lefties, and he looks to be having a renaissance in Colorado.
Matt Davidson (1.5x multiplier)- The second Matt I’m looking at today is the Davidson variety against Brett Anderson. The last time we saw Davidson for a full season in 2018, he posted an ISO above .200 against left-handed pitching with a massive strikeout rate. Opposing pitcher Brett Anderson owns just a 12.5% strikeout rate since the start of 2019, which help neutralize those free-swinging concerns. He’s good at generating ground balls, but Davidson has the power to get the ball up in the air and beat him.
For my final spot, I will be looking to grab one of the studs like Christian Yelich or JD Martinez who you can both get for greater than the flat one point scoring.
Written by Ben Hossler (Follow @BenHossler on Twitter)
