What’s up, Karma Nation!? I have some great news for you! If you’re thinking about joining the Karma Nation, use Promo Code “TOUCHDOWN” to get 20% of ANY package for the lifetime of that subscription! Click here for our packages.
Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack
Boston Red Sox
The Boston Red Sox are in a great position of make up the “Chalk Stack” once again. They currently lead the league in team batting average, while also ranking second in the MLB in runs scored, 10th in home runs, and fourth in OPS through 117 games. Boston has been at their best at home, where they boast a .287 average with a .498 slugging percentage and a .853 OPS through 59 games. They are averaging 5.9 runs and 4.3 extra-base hits per game in those contests, as well. Tonight, the Red Sox are -240 favorites in a game set at 11 runs, giving them the highest implied run total on the slate at 6.8 runs.
Boston gets a great matchup against Dillon Peters tonight. He has performed well this season, posting a 2-0 record with a 3.20 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP through seven games (two starts). With that being said, he is due for regression, as he owns a 5.00 xFIP and a 4.74 SIERA in those games. Peters has struggled with 36.6% fly ball and 16.7% HR/FB rates in 2019. He has also given up a 40.2% hard hit rate, while recording only a 14.6% soft hit rate this season. He enters this game with 17.4% strikeouts and 8.6% swinging strike rates, as well. Peters has struggled more against right-handed batters, allowing them to hit for a .302 average with a .524 slugging percentage and a .357 wOBA. He has also given up a .270/.486/.349 line to left-handed batters in 2019. Furthermore, Peters has struggled on the road this season, where his opponents have posted a .264/.434/.306 line against him this season. Peters is due for quite a bit of regression, and he’s likely to find some of that against one of the best offenses in the MLB in a hitter friendly stadium tonight.
Wildcard GPP: Low Owned Stack
Detroit Tigers
The Detroit Tigers have struggled offense throughout the 2019 season, ranking 29th in the MLB in runs scored, home runs, and OPS, while also ranking 30th in team batting average through 112 games. They have struggled in Detroit, where they are hitting for a .235 average with a .369 slugging percentage and a .659 OPS through 54 games. They are also averaging 3.3 runs and 2.8 extra-base hits per game in Detroit this season. With that being said, the Tigers are currently -159 favorites in a game set at 9 runs, and they own one of the highest implied run totals on the slate at 5.1 runs.
Jorge Lopez will be taking the mound for the Kansas City Royals tonight. He has struggled through 29 games (10 starts), posting a 1-7 record with a 6.19 ERA and a 1.52 WHIP. He also enters this game with a 4.64 xFIP and a 4.54 SIERA. He has also allowed his opponents to record a 33.5% fly ball rate to go along with a 19.5% HR/FB rate in 2019. He has also given up a 39.8% hard hit rate, while possessing only a 13.8% soft hit rate this season. He brings 21.2% strikeout and 9.5% swinging strike rates into this game, as well. Lopez has been at his worst against left-handed batters, allowing them to hit for a .345 average with a .588 slugging percentage and a .410 wOBA. He has also given up a .234/.439/.313 line to right-handed batters this season. Lopez has struggled on the road, as well, where his opponents boast a .258/.458/.325 line. The Tigers have struggled to produce offensively for the majority of the season, but this is an elite matchup, and they may go overlooked because of their previous struggles.
Hidden Gem: Value Pitcher
Dallas Keuchel
Keuchel has only thrown in nine games this season, posting a 3-4 record with a 3.86 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP. He also owns a 4.06 xFIP and a 4.51 SIERA in those starts. He has held his opponents to a 19.6% fly ball rate, although he has given up a 24.2% HR/FB rate, as well. Keuchel has allowed his opponents to post a 37.8% hard hit rate against him, while posting a 19.8% soft hit rate. He also brings 17.8% strikeout and an 8.1% swinging strike rate into this game. He’s currently a -189 favorite in a game set at 8.5 runs, giving his opponents an implied run total of 3.6 runs.
Keuchel gets a great matchup against the Miami Marlins, who lead the slate in strikeouts per at-bat, while also ranking third last on the slate in team wOBA. Keuchel has been at his best against left-handed batters, holding them to a .167 average with a .429 slugging percentage and a .258 wOBA. He has been significantly better at home in 2019, but he’ll be throwing in one of the most pitcher friendly stadiums in the MLB. Keuchel is cheap enough to be considered in all leagues on this slate.
Hidden Gems: Value Hitters
Kyle Higashioka
Higashioka has only played in 10 games this season, posting a .256 average with a .590 slugging percentage and a .840 OPS. He owns seven extra-base hits (three home runs) and nine RBIs in those games, as well. Higashioka has also posted 66% hard hit and 33% fly ball rates with a 99 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days. He boasts 0.015 wOBA and 0.008 ISO differentials against left-handed pitching, as well.
Higashioka gets a great matchup against Thomas Pannone tonight. He has struggled with a 5.39 xFIP and a 4.67 SIERA this season. Pannone has also allowed right-handed batters to hit for a .255 average with a .416 slugging percentage and a .324 wOBA in 2019. Higashioka is expected to hit seventh in the New York Yankees lineup, and he makes an elite option in all leagues tonight.
Follow Justin Bales on Twitter (@BalesSJustin)
