Pitcher
Justin’s Pick: Trevor Williams
There are only five games tonight, and it’s an odd slate, so let’s get weird, right? Trevor Williams has seen plenty of ups and downs in 2019, posting a 4-4 record with a 4.75 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP through 16 starts. He also owns a 4.85 xFIP and a 4.76 SIERA this season. He has also been a better option at home, where he boasts a 4.40 xFIP. Williams only owns an 18% strikeout rate in Pittsburgh, but he gets a matchup against the Milwaukee Brewers, who lead the league in strikeouts per at-bat. He has flashed upside recently, scoring 22.8 and 19.1 fantasy points in two of his last three starts. Williams is a +108 underdog in a game set at 9.5 runs, but Milwaukee has struggled to produce on the road this season, and Williams comes with solid upside for a low price tag tonight.
Jason’s Reaction: It is difficult to deny any pitching recommendation tonight with only five games, and I won’t be denying Williams. He is a very solid tournament option.
Jason’s Pick: Eduardo Rodriguez
Justin is getting too weird. I have to settle things down. Eduardo Rodriguez is the best pitching option on tonight’s five-game slate, and he should see plenty of success against the Kansas City Royals. The game is set at 11 total runs, but the Boston Red Sox are -319 betting favorites, giving the Royals an implied run total of only 3.9. Rodriguez also boasts 9.8 strikeouts per nine innings pitched, and despite the Royals not being a strikeout-friendly lineup, he should find some success. He is a very safe option, and he needs to be rostered in cash games.
Justin’s Reaction: I have no problems here.
Infielder
Justin’s Pick: Carson Kelly
Carson Kelly is only hitting .233 over his last 10 games, but he owns a .567 slugging percentage and a .870 OPS over that span. He also owns four extra-base hits (three home runs) and six RBIs in those games. Furthermore, Kelly has posted 68% hard hit and 54% fly ball rates to go along with a 99 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days. He gets a plus matchup against Jason Vargas, who is due for regression. Kelly has found plenty of success against left-handed pitching, as well, bringing 0.185 wOBA and 0.164 ISO differentials against lefties into this game. He’s only hitting eighth in the Arizona Diamondbacks’ lineup, and he comes with elite upside for his position and price tag.
Jason’s Reaction: Kelly has a lot of upside at a position that doesn’t tend toward upside. He is a great option in all leagues on a small slate.
Jason’s Pick: Gio Urshela
Gio Urshela took a foul ball off of his leg twice on Sunday, and he has been absent from the New York Yankees’ lineup since. Fortunately, he has been available to pinch hit, and it looks like he is scheduled to return to action tonight. The Yankees are playing in Baltimore against the Orioles, and with John Means on the mound, they are a great team to target. In his last 10 games, Urshela is approaching a .500 batting average with 2 home runs and 5 RBIs. The Yankees are expected to score about six runs tonight, and Urshela will be part of the reason why. He is in a great spot for RBI opportunities, as he is hitting fourth, and over the last 15 days, he has an average exit velocity on batted balls of 97 MPH. Combine that with a fly ball rate over 35% and a hard hit rate just under 60%, and Urshela has clear home run upside.
Justin’s Reaction: I was considering Urshela tonight, so I’m in on this play.
Outfielder
Justin’s Pick: Wil Myers
Wil Myers continues to come with a low price tag, but he’s hitting .324 with a .486 slugging percentage and a .861 OPS over his last 10 games. He has posted four extra-base hits (one home run), six RBIs, and one stolen base over that span. Myers has found success over the last 15 days, as well, recording 57% hard hit and 39% fly ball rates with a 97 MPH exit velocity over that span. He gets a great matchup against Yusei Kikuchi, who has struggled at home against right-handed batters. Myers has also found success against left-handed pitching, as he enters this game with 0.057 wOBA and 0.037 ISO differentials against lefties. Myers is only expected to hit seventh in the San Diego Padres’ offense, but he still makes a solid option on this smaller slate.
Jason’s Reaction: Myers has a very favorable price tag for his upside. I like him in tournaments.
Jason’s Pick: Aaron Judge
Aaron Judge has been struggling at the plate over his last 10 games, hitting under .200 with 1 home run and 1 RBI. Tonight, he gets a great matchup against the Baltimore Orioles and John Means, and the New York Yankees are the team to target. Judge is expected to hit second in the lineup, and based on his advanced metrics, he should start producing from a fantasy perspective. He has over five fantasy points in six consecutive games, but double-digit performances are coming. Over the last 15 days, he has an average exit velocity on batted balls of 93 MPH and a hard hit rate over 50%. Judge is risky due to his high price tag, but he always has two-home-run-upside, which most players do not have. Use him in tournaments.
Justin’s Reaction: You nailed it. Feel free to use Judge on this slate.
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