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Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack
Boston Red Sox
The Boston Red Sox continue to make up the “Chalk Stack.” They feature an elite offense, leading the league in runs scored and team batting average, while also ranking eighth in the MLB in home runs and fourth in OPS through 115 games. Boston has been significantly better at home, where they are hitting for a .287 average with a .502 slugging percentage and a .859 OPS through 57 games. They are averaging 6.0 runs and 4.4 extra-base hits per game in those contests, as well. The Red Sox are -182 favorites in a game set at 10.5 runs, giving them one of the highest implied run total on the slate at 6.1 runs.
Boston gets a plus matchup against Jakob Junis, who has struggled through 23 starts this season. In those starts, he owns a 6-10 record with a 5.03 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP. He has also posted a 4.57 xFIP and a 4.60 SIERA. Junis has also struggled with 34.4% fly ball and 17.5% HR/FB rates this season. He has given up a 42.9% hard hit rate, while recording a 13.5% soft hit rate in 2019. He brings 21.8% strikeout and 10.3% swinging strike rates into this game, as well. Junis has been at his worst against left-handed batters, allowing them to hit for a .287 average with a .477 slugging percentage and a .348 wOBA. He has also given up a .247/.460/.324 line to right-handed batters this season. Furthermore, Junis has struggled on the road this season, where his opponents have been able to post a .258/.498/.347 line against him in 2019. Boston continues to feature a high upside offense at home, and Junis’ inability to control his opponents power outside of Kansas City could pose a major problem for him tonight.
Important Odds: Vegas Stack
New York Yankees
The New York Yankees continue to possess a dominant offense, ranking second in the MLB in runs scored and home runs, and third in team batting average and OPS through 112 games. The Yankees have found more success away from home in 2019, where they boast a .276 average with a .489 slugging percentage and a .840 OPS through 51 games. They are also averaging 6.4 runs and 4.0 extra-base hits per game in those contests. New York is a -200 favorite in a game set at 11 runs, and they feature the highest implied run total on the slate at 6.6 runs.
The Yankees get an elite matchup against Jimmy Yacabonis tonight. He has struggled through 28 games (4 starts) in 2019, posting a 1-2 record with a 6.98 ERA and a 1.85 WHIP. He has also posted a 6.14 xFIP and a 5.48 SIERA this season. Yacabonis enters this game with 42% fly ball and 16.4% HR/FB rates. He has allowed his opponents to post a 40.5% hard hit rate against him, while recording only a 15.3% soft hit rate in 2019. He has posted 17.5% strikeout and 8.7% swinging strike rates this season. Yacabonis has struggled against everyone in 2019. He’s allowing right-handed batters to hit for a .324 average with a .556 slugging percentage and a .405 wOBA, while left-handed batters have posted a .291/.582/.398 line against him. He has also given up a ridiculous .375/.675/.466 line to his opponents in Baltimore this season. This is an elite matchup for the Yankees, and they should have no problems finding success tonight. They will make up a second “Chalk Stack” on this slate, and both of these stacks can be considered in cash games tonight.
NOTE: Asher Wojciechowski will be taking the mound for Baltimore. The recommendation remains, but New York is a bit riskier at this point.
Wildcard GPP: Low Owned Stack
Minnesota Twins
The Minnesota Twins are another elite offense, as they lead the league in home runs and OPS through 112 games this season. They also rank third in the MLB in runs scored and fourth in team batting average this season. The Twins have been better on the road, but they still own a .266 average with a .486 slugging percentage and a .826 OPS through 56 home games. They are averaging 5.5 runs and 3.9 extra-base hits per game in Minnesota this season. Tonight, they are -156 favorites in a game set at 10.5 runs, and they own an implied run total of 5.6 runs.
Mike Foltynewicz will be taking the mound for the Atlanta Braves tonight. He has started 11 games this season, posting a 2-5 record with a 6.37 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP. He has also struggled with a 5.23 xFIP and a 5.00 SIERA this season. Most importantly, Foltynewicz has given up 42.9% fly ball and 20.5% HR/FB rates in 2019. He has also allowed his opponents to post a 44.1% hard hit rate against him, while he owns an 18.1% rate. He enters this game with 19.2% strikeout and 10.8% swinging strike rates, as well. Foltynewicz has allowed left-handed batters to hit for a .273 average with a .573 slugging percentage and a .366 wOBA this season. He has also allowed right-handed batters to post a .276/.537/.362 line against him. Furthermore, he has struggled on the road, where his opponents own a .282/.553/.367 line in 2019. The Twins come with elite power as an offense, meaning they have limitless potential against a fly ball pitcher.
Hidden Gem: Value Pitcher
Jake Arrieta
Arrieta has seen plenty of ups and downs in 2019, posting an 8-8 record with a 4.44 ERA and a 1.45 WHIP through 22 starts. He also owns a 4.46 xFIP and a 4.82 SIERA this season. He has held his opponents to a 24.9% fly ball rate, while giving up a 19.2% HR/FB rate. He also owns 37.6% hard hit and 16.4% soft hit rates in 2019. Arrieta brings 18% strikeout and 7% swinging strike rates into this game, as well. He’s currently a +127 underdog in a game set at 9.5 runs, giving his opponents an implied run total of 5.2 runs.
Arrieta gets a plus matchup against the Arizona Diamondbacks, who rank second on the slate in strikeouts per at-bat. They also rank as an average offense in terms of team wOBA on this slate. Arrieta has found significantly more success against right-handed batters in 2019, holding them to a .248 average with a .368 slugging percentage and a .294 wOBA. He has struggled on the road in 2019, but he’s due for positive regression in road starts. Arrieta should strictly be considered in tournaments tonight, though.
Hidden Gems: Value Hitters
Wil Myers
Myers has found plenty of success recently, posting a .303 average with a .485 slugging percentage and a .846 OPS over his last 10 games. He owns four extra-base hits (one home run) and five RBIs in those games, as well. Meyers possesses 64% hard hit and 44% fly ball rates to go along with a 99 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days. He brings 0.068 wOBA and 0.088 ISO differentials against left-handed pitching into this game.
Myers is expected to get a matchup against Wade LeBlanc, who has struggled with a 5.14 xFIP and a 4.77 SIERA this season. He has also struggled against right-handed batters, allowing them to hit for a .291 average with a .491 slugging percentage and a .345 wOBA. Myers is expected to hit second in the San Diego Padres lineup, and he makes a solid option in all leagues tonight.
Follow Justin Bales on Twitter (@BalesSJustin)
