Pitchers
Charlie Morton/Lucas Giolito- For it being a big slate, I have a pretty tight pitching pool and it starts with choosing one of these “aces” at the top. Both have been extremely good this season with 30% strikeouts, and both have positive matchups with teams that are projected to strikeout over 24% of the time. Morton is at home against the Blue Jays, and this is a big boost given that he has some huge home/road splits this season. He sports a 2.88 xFIP with over 35% strikeouts at home compared to 3.70/26% marks on the road. Giolito has our favorite matchup with the Detroit Tigers, who are one of the worst teams in the MLB against right-handed pitching. Overall, these are far and away the top two pitchers for me on this slate and I will absolutely be choosing one for cash games on FanDuel, and starting with one on multi-pitcher sites. Both have upside given their matchups, and i don’t think you can go wrong with either, but as of now I’m leaning slightly towards Morton who I feel is a tad safer given his stronger control.
Spencer Turnbull- These next two arms are simply going to be SP2 options on DraftKings, as I search for someone to pair up with Morton (or Gio). I do believe that Rick Porcello will be the chalky SP2 option as he matches up with the Royals at $6,400, and I simply will be avoiding him if that’s the case. So, I’m looking for pitcher’s in Porcello’s general pricing range, and the first that sticks out is Spencer Turnbull against the Chicago White Sox. I feel like Turnbull isn’t getting a ton of run across the industry today despite his matchup…I mean, Drew Smyly was 40% owned in this same exact matchup yesterday! I wish there was a few more righties in this White Sox lineup, but regardless, these are not good hitters — there’s only three players in the lineup tonight with over a .325 wOBA against right-handed pitching. Woof. Turnbull doesn’t allow a ton of power and he’s able to get ground balls to both sides of the plate, I think he is a bit too cheap for this matchup and I’m willing to consider him in all formats tonight.
Aaron Civale- Our other option, if looking to pivot off of Porcello, is the Indians youngster Aaron Civale against the Texas Rangers. We don’t exactly know who Civale is yet, but he profiles to have strong control and he gets nice boost against a strikeout-prone Texas Rangers team. This Rangers lineup projects to strikeout 25% of the time, and they are even worse on the road this season with over 27% K’s. I probably trust Turnbull a little more, but this is definitely a positive matchup and at his price we can consider Civale in all formats.
UPDATE: With News that Turnbull is being limited to 70 pitches, I am bumping Civale above him.
Building Blocks
Anthony Rizzo- We kick off the building blocks with a Cubs player, who, for some reason, DraftKings forgot to price accordingly today. There’s positive hitting weather in Chicago today, but Rizzo sits at just $4,000 in a matchup with Chris Bassitt. Bassitt is not a bad pitcher, but he does allow a .202 ISO to left-handed batters and we know that Rizzo has pop himself. Furthermore, Bassitt’s most used pitch to lefties this season has been his sinker, a pitch that Rizzo has mashed to the tune of a .482 xwOBA and a .367 ISO over the last two seasons.
Mike Moustakas- The Brewers are one of my favorite tournament stacks tonight against Dario Agrazal, someone I have picked on relentlessly the last few weeks. The regression has started to hit Agrazal, but it’s still better than it appears as he owns a 3.65 ERA compared to a 5.80 SIERA. Agrazal has allowed over a .200 ISO to both sides of the plate, and that comes with over 50% fly balls to left-handed batters. This plays into Moustakas’ strength, and at $4,200 on DraftKings he appears mis-priced tonight.
JD Martinez- I’ve written up Martinez countless times this season against left-handed pitchers, and we can go right back to the well tonight against Mike Montgomery. As I pointed out last week, people have been “down” on Martinez this season for his lack of homeruns despite still owning a .500 ISO against southpaws. Montgomery is not a good pitcher, and Martinez grades out as my favorite overall spend-up on this Monday night slate.
Written by Ben Hossler (Follow @BenHossler on Twitter)
