Pitcher
Justin’s Pick: Tony Gonsolin
Tony Gonsolin has only thrown in two games (one start) in 2019. He has struggled with a 5.63 ERA, but he’s due for positive regression [already], as he owns a 3.19 xFIP and a 3.32 SIERA. He could also see positive regression on his strikeout potential, as his strikeout rate (17.1%) doesn’t match his swinging strike rate (11.1%). He has posted significantly higher strikeout rates in the MiLB, and had a relatively difficult “luck of the draw” schedule this season, as he threw against the Arizona Diamondbacks and Colorado Rockies on the road in 2019. He gets a matchup against the St. Louis Cardinals in Los Angeles tonight, and they have struggled offensively recently. Gonsolin is a -166 favorite in a game set at 9 runs. He has yet to scratch the surface of his upside yet in the MLB, and his price tag doesn’t represent that.
Jason’s Reaction: I’m not targeting Gonsolin, but the recommendation makes sense.
Jason’s Pick: Charlie Morton
Charlie Morton is the best pitching option on tonight’s slate due to his strikeout upside. He is averaging 10.5 K/9, and the Toronto Blue Jays strikeout 0.280 times per at-bat. With a strikeout prediction over seven tonight, Morton has great tournament upside. Vegas has this game set at 8 total runs, and the Tampa Bay Rays are -250 betting favorites, giving the Blue Jays a lowly implied run total of 3.1, which is the lowest on the slate. Morton has both the highest strikeout upside, and the team he is pitching against has the lowest implied run total. That is a great combination, and he can be used in all leagues.
Justin’s Reaction: Morton makes a great option in all leagues tonight.
Infielder
Justin’s Pick: Ji-Man Choi
Ji-Man Choi is one of the most mispriced players on the slate. He’s hitting .344 with a .531 slugging percentage and a .979 OPS over his last 10 games. He boasts four extra-base hits (one home run) and four RBIs in those games, as well. Choi enters this game with 57% hard hit and 42% fly ball rates to go along with a 96 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days. He gets a plus matchup against Jacob Waguespack, and he brings 0.122 wOBA and 0.107 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching into this game. Choi is expected to lead off for the Tampa Bay Rays again tonight, and he’s entirely too cheap for his recent production.
Jason’s Reaction: I agree on all fronts here. Choi is a great option in all leagues.
Jason’s Pick: Stephen Vogt
Stephen Vogt is expected to hit fourth tonight for the San Francisco Giants, and his price tag does not reflect his recent surge in fantasy production. In his last 10 games, he is hitting over .450 with 1 home run and 2 RBIs. His RBI production should increase with the change to his position in the lineup. Vogt enters tonight’s game with 0.202 ISO and 0.178 wOBA differentials, and over the last 15 days, his advanced metrics have been solid. He has an average exit velocity on batted balls of 99 MPH, a fly ball rate over 40%, and a hard hit rate over 60%. There is no reason to avoid him right now, as the Giants attempt to ride him into the playoffs.
Justin’s Reaction: Vogt is an extremely cheap option at catch, and he can be used in all leagues.
Outfielder
Justin’s Pick: J.D. Martinez
J.D. Martinez has been playing at a high level over his last 10 games, as he has recorded a .324 average with a .757 slugging percentage and a 1.213 OPS over that span. He has posted 7 extra-base hits (4 home runs) and 10 RBIs over that span, as well. Furthermore, Martinez boasts 51% hard hit and 39% fly ball rates with a 96 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days. He gets an elite matchup against Mike Montgomery, and enters this game with 0.164 wOBA and 0.278 ISO differentials against left-handed pitching. Martinez is expected to hit fourth in the Boston Red Sox’s lineup, and they feature the highest implied run total on the slate. He’s an elite cash game play, and can be considered in tournaments tonight, as well.
Jason’s Reaction: Martinez is one of the best outfielder options on the slate. If Justin didn’t recommend him, I would have.
Jason’s Pick: Corey Dickerson
Corey Dickerson is expected to leadoff tonight for the Philadelphia Phillies against the Arizona Diamondbacks in hitter-friendly Chase Field. In his last 10 games, he is hitting over .300 with 3 home runs and 9 RBIs. His numbers should only increase now that he is out of Pittsburgh. The Phillies are a much more high-powered offense, and Dickerson’s price tag will increase over $5.0K. Take advantage of it while it is down. In the last 15 days, he has an average exit velocity on batted balls of 93 MPH, a fly ball rate of 45%, and a hard hit rate the exact same as his fly ball rate. As an added bonus, he will benefit from the right-handed Merrill Kelly being on the mound.
Justin’s Reaction: Dickerson is a bit expensive, and Kelly is due for positive regression at home, but the former can still be considered in tournaments.
Be sure to follow Justin (@BalesSJustin) and Jason (@BalesTJason) on Twitter!
