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Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack
Boston Red Sox
The Boston Red Sox feature an elite offense, leading the league in runs scored and team batting average, while also ranking eighth in the MLB in home runs and fourth in OPS through 114 games. Boston has found significant more success at home, where they are hitting for a .287 average with a .502 slugging percentage and a .858 OPS through 56 games. They are averaging 6.0 runs and 4.4 extra-base hits per game in those contests, as well. The Red Sox are -253 favorites in a game set at 11.5 runs, giving them the highest implied run total on the slate at 7.2 runs.
Boston gets a great matchup against Mike Montgomery tonight. He has struggled through 23 games (3 starts) in 2019, posting a 1-4 record with a 6.34 ERA and a 1.77 WHIP. He has also posted a 4.78 xFIP and a 5.25 SIERA in 2019. Montgomery has held his opponents to a 23.3% fly ball rate this season, although he has given up a 25.8% HR/FB rate. He has also allowed his opponents to post a 43% hard hit rate against him, while recording only a 12.6% soft hit rate. He brings 13.2% strikeout and 7.6% swinging strike rates into this game, as well. Montgomery has been worse against left-handed pitching this season, allowing them to hit for a .489 average with a .851 slugging percentage and a .547 wOBA. That is in somewhat limited innings, though. He has also allowed right-handed batters to post a .275/.486/.351 line against him this season. Furthermore, Montgomery has been at his worst on the road, where he has given up a .423/.845/.529 line in 2019. The Red Sox feature an elite offense in Boston against left-handed pitching, and they should have no problems finding success in this game.
Important Odds: Vegas Stack
New York Yankees
The New York Yankees have found plenty of offensive success in 2019, ranking second in the MLB in runs scored, and third in home runs, team batting average, and OPS through 111 games. Surprisingly, the Yankees have found more success on the road, where they boast a .275 average with a .483 slugging percentage and a .834 OPS through 50 games. They are also averaging 6.4 runs and 4.0 extra-base hits per game in those contests. New York is currently a -247 favorite in a game set at 10.5 runs, and they feature an implied run total of 6.6 runs tonight.
The Yankees get a great matchup against Gabriel Ynoa, who has recorded a 1-6 record with a 5.55 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP through 24 games (7 starts) this season. He has also struggled with a 5.46 xFIP and a 5.12 SIERA in 2019. Ynoa has allowed his opponents to post 37.4% fly ball and 15.2% HR/FB rates. He has also given up a 34% hard hit rate, while recording only a 14.2% soft hit rate. He also enters this game with 14.3% strikeout and 8.7% swinging strike rates. Ynoa has been a reverse splits pitcher this season, allowing right-handed batters to hit for a .307 average with a .493 slugging percentage and a .355 wOBA. He has also allowed left-handed batters to post a .241/.461/.317 line against him in 2019. Furthermore, he has allowed his opponents to hit for a .280/.466/.325 line in Baltimore this season. The Yankees will benefit from playing in a hitter friendly stadium, and they should find plenty of success against Ynoa and the Baltimore bullpen, which has been one of the worst in the MLB this season.
Wildcard GPP: Low Owned Stack
Milwaukee Brewers
The Milwaukee Brewers have seen plenty of ups and downs through 113 games this season. They currently rank 16th in the MLB in runs scored, fifth in home runs, 18th in team batting average, and 13th in OPS. They have struggled through 56 road games in 2019, as they’re hitting for a .237 average with a .422 slugging percentage and a .736 OPS in those games. The Brewers are averaging 4.6 runs and 3.3 extra-base hits per game on the road this season. They are -140 favorites in a game set at 10 runs tonight, and they own an implied run total of 5.5 runs.
Dario Agrazal will be taking the mound for the Pittsburgh Pirates tonight. He has looked solid through seven starts, posting a 2-2 record with a 3.65 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP. He’s due for major regression, though, as he also owns a 6.20 xFIP and a 5.80 SIERA this season. Agrazal has allowed 41.7% fly ball and 16% HR/FB rates in 2019. He has also allowed his opponents to post a 34.7% hard hit rate against him, while recording a 16.5% soft hit rate. He enters this game with 11.6% strikeout and 5.9% swinging strike rates this season. Agrazal has been significantly worse against right-handed batters in 2019, allowing them to hit for a .304 average with a .580 slugging percentage and a .393 wOBA. He’s due for major regression to left-handed batters, though, as his advanced metrics suggest he is a similar pitcher against both left- and right-handed batters. The Brewers are likely to go overlooked because of their road struggles, but they make an elite tournament stack tonight.
Hidden Gem: Value Pitcher
Tony Gonsolin
Gonsolin has only thrown in two games this season, posting an 0-1 record with a 5.63 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP in those games. He owns a 3.19 xFIP and a 3.32 SIERA, as well. He has also held his opponents to a 22.2% fly ball rate, although he has given up a 16.7% HR/FB rate this season. Gonsolin also owns a 17.1% strikeout rate, but he could see positive regression on that, as he also boasts an 11.1% swinging strike rate. He’s currently a -158 favorite in a game set at 9.5 runs, giving his opponents an implied run total of 4.2 runs.
Gonsolin gets a great matchup against the St. Louis Cardinals, who rank seventh on the slate in strikeouts per at-bat. They have also been struggling a bit recently, and Gonsolin can take advantage of that. He has been slightly better against right-handed batters, and that is to be expected from young right-handed pitchers. His pitch count is a bit of a concern, and he should strictly be used in tournaments tonight.
Hidden Gems: Value Hitters
Jason Heyward
Heyward has been playing well recently, posting a .300 average with a .525 slugging percentage and a .858 OPS over his last 10 games. He owns six extra-base hits (two home runs), four RBIs, and one stolen base over that span. Heyward also owns 36% hard hit and 39% fly ball rates with a 93 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days. He brings 0.104 wOBA and 0.102 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching into this game, as well.
Heyward gets a decent matchup against Chris Bassitt, who has posted a 4.75 xFIP and a 4.63 SIERA this season. He has been surprisingly good against left-handed batters, holding them to a .187 average with a .389 slugging percentage and a .286 wOBA. With that being said, he is due for regression against lefties. Heyward is leading off for the Chicago Cubs, and he can be considered in all leagues tonight.
Follow Justin Bales on Twitter (@BalesSJustin)
