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Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack
Pittsburgh Pirates
The Pittsburgh Pirates have seen mixed results throughout the 2019 season, ranking 17th in the MLB in runs scored, 26th in home runs, sixth in team batting average, and 18th in OPS through 135 games. Pittsburgh has been slightly better on the road, where they are hitting for a .267 average with a .432 slugging percentage and a .752 OPS through 69 games. They are averaging 4.7 runs and 3.2 extra-base hits per game in those contests, as well. The Pirates are -121 favorites in a game set at 13.5 runs, giving them the highest implied run total on the slate at 7.1 runs.
Pittsburgh gets an elite matchup against Tim Melville, who has only thrown in two starts this season. In those starts, he has posted a 1-0 record with a 0.75 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP. He is due for regression, though, as he also owns a 5.29 xFIP and a 5.23 SIERA in 2019. Melville has given up a 50% fly ball rate this season, although he has held his opponents to a 6.7% HR/FB rate. He has also posted 35.5% hard hit and 12.9% soft hit rates. He brings 21.7% strikeout and 13.4% swinging strike rates into this game, as well. Throughout his short MLB career, Melville has been at his worst against right-handed batters. He’s allowing righties to hit for a .333 average with a .648 slugging percentage and a .443 wOBA, while left-handed batters have posted a .235/.471/.382 line against him. With that being said, his xFIP (7.23) against left-handed batters suggests he could see major regression against them. Melville has struggled in both the MLB and MiLB throughout his career, and there’s no reason to believe he’ll find success in Colorado tonight.
Wildcard GPP: Low Owned Stack
Atlanta Braves
The Atlanta Braves feature one of the best offenses in the MLB, as they rank sixth in the league in runs scored and OPS, seventh in home runs, eight in team batting average through 136 games. They have found more success in Atlanta, where they boast a .269 average with a .481 slugging percentage and a .830 OPS. They are also averaging 5.4 runs and 3.7 extra-base hits per game through 67 home contests. The Braves are currently -208 favorites in a game set at 9.5 runs, and they own one of the highest implied run totals on the slate at 5.7 runs.
Reynaldo Lopez will be taking the mound for the Chicago White Sox tonight. He has struggled through 27 starts this season, recording an 8-11 record with a 5.08 ERA and a 1.44 WHIP. He has also posted a 5.36 xFIP and a 4.96 SIERA in those starts. Lopez has struggled with 44.1% fly ball and 13.1% HR/FB rates in 2019. He has given up a 34.4% hard hit rate to go along with a 19.7% soft hit rate. He enters this game with 20.6% strikeout and 10.7% swinging strike rates, as well. Lopez has struggled mightily against left-handed batters, allowing them to hit for a .289 average with a .486 slugging percentage and a .364 wOBA. He has also given up a .259/.467/.324 line to right-handed batters in 2019. Furthermore, Lopez has allowed his opponents to post a .290/.507/.358 line on the road this season. Atlanta comes with elite upside, and they’re likely to go overlooked with two bad pitchers in Colorado.
Hidden Gem: Value Pitcher
Brock Burke
Burke has thrown well through two starts in 2019, posting an 0-1 record with a 0.75 ERA and a 0.92 WHIP. With that being said, he is due for regression, as he owns a 4.63 xFIP and a 4.77 SIERA. Burke has held his opponents to a 22.6% fly ball rate without allowing a home run, though. He has only given up a 31.3% hard hit rate to go along with a 25% soft hit rate. Burke brings 18.8% strikeout and 7.3% swinging strike rates into this game, as well. He’s currently a -145 favorite in a game set at 10 runs, giving his opponents an implied run total of 4.6 runs tonight.
Burke gets a great matchup against the Seattle Mariners, who rank sixth on the slate in strikeouts per at-bat. They also rank fourth last on the slate in team wOBA. Surprisingly, Burke has been better against right-handed batters, holding them to a .118 average with a .147 slugging percentage and a .187 wOBA. He also boasts a 4.43 xFIP against righties, suggesting his reverse splits could continue. Burke shouldn’t truly be considered in cash games, but he makes a strong tournament option.
Hidden Gem: Value Hitter
Ryan O’Hearn
O’Hearn is hitting for a .235 average with a .529 slugging percentage and a .879 OPS over his last 10 games. He owns four extra-base hits (three home runs) and five RBIs over that span, as well. O’Hearn possesses 60% hard hit and 32% fly ball rates with a 96 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days. He also brings 0.087 wOBA and 0.119 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching into this game.
O’Hearn gets a plus matchup against Dylan Bundy, who enters this game with a 4.55 xFIP and a 4.52 SIERA through 25 starts. He has struggled against left-handed batters, allowing them to hit for a .263 average with a .430 slugging percentage and a .314 wOBA. O’Hearn is expected to hit fifth in the Kansas City Royals lineup, and he can be considered in all leagues for his low price tag.
Follow Justin Bales on Twitter (@BalesSJustin)
