Pitcher
Justin’s Pick: Max Fried
Max Fried has been enjoying an outstanding season, posting a 14-4 record with a 4.03 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP through 27 games (25 starts). He could see positive regression as the season progresses, as he owns a 3.46 xFIP and 3.98 SIERA in those games. Fried has held his opponents to a 22.5% fly ball rate, although he has given up a 19.1% HR/FB rate in 2019. He has also held his opponents to a 36.4% hard hit rate with a 16.7% soft hit rate this season. He brings 23.7% strikeout and 10.8% swinging strike rates into this game, as well. Fried gets an elite matchup against the Chicago White Sox, who lead the slate in strikeouts per at-bat. They feature a below average team wOBA. Fried is a -197 favorite in a game set at 9.5 runs tonight, and he can be considered in all leagues.
Jason’s Reaction: Fried is easily the best pitching option on tonight’s slate for his price tag and upside.
Jason’s Pick: Dinelson Lamet
The only other pitching option on the board tonight that has similar upside, at least concerning strikeout potential, to Max Fried is Dinelson Lamet. Lamet gets a tough matchup tonight against Madison Bumgarner, so it is possible that he does not pick up the win, but the San Francisco Giants are not one of the better offenses in the league. On the season, Lamet has a 11.7 K/9, and the Giants strikeout at a rate of 0.294 times per at-bat. Vegas has this game set at 7.5 total runs, and Bumgarner is the betting favorite at -131. That gives the Giants an implied run total of 4.0. Pitchers like Anibal Sanchez and Kyle Gibson have lower opponent implied run totals, but their strikeout upside is not nearly as high. In tournaments, roster Lamet. His higher price tag can be neutralized by the lower price tag of Fried.
Justin’s Reaction: I likely won’t pay Lamet’s price tag tonight. There are a few other options I’d use instead of him, but I understand it.
Infielder
Justin’s Pick: Jason Castro
Jason Castro’s numbers don’t pop off the page, as he’s only hitting for a .176 average with a .382 slugging percentage and .646 OPS over his last 10 games. He owns three extra-base hits (two home runs) and two RBIs over that span. With that being said, Castro possesses 55% hard hit and fly ball rates to go along with a 99 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days (5 games). He gets an elite matchup against Edwin Jackson, and he brings 0.161 wOBA and 0.253 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching into this game. Castro is only expected to hit eighth in the Minnesota Twins’ lineup, but they should find plenty of success on this slate. He can be considered in all leagues because of his low price tag.
Jason’s Reaction: I’ve been advocating for Castro since before it was cool. I love this recommendation.
Jason’s Pick: Brandon Belt
This recommendation probably seems odd considering the Dinelson Lamet recommendation above, but Brandon Belt has been playing too well of recent to ignore. In his last 2 games, Belt has a combined 33 fantasy points. In the last 15 days, he has an average exit velocity on batted balls of 95 MPH, a fly ball rate of 50%, and a hard hit rate of 55%. He enters tonight’s game with positive 0.051 ISO and 0.051 wOBA differentials against right-handed pitching. Expected to hit second in the San Francisco Giants’ lineup tonight, Belt has plenty of upside. His price tag is low for his position, and he is a great tournament play, even with Lamet in the same lineup. It is possible that Lamet allows three or four runs and still returns value, or more.
Justin’s Reaction: Belt makes a great value option tonight.
Outfielder
Justin’s Pick: Aaron Judge
Aaron Judge has finally caught fire, as he boasts a .364 average with a .864 slugging percentage and 1.241 OPS over his last 10 games. He has recorded 10 extra-base hits (6 home runs), 10 RBIs, and 1 stolen base over that span. Judge enters this game with 65% hard hit and 37% line drive rates to go along with a 95 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days. He gets a plus matchup against Brett Anderson, and brings 0.155 wOBA and 0.183 ISO differentials against left-handed pitching into this game. Judge will be playing in one of the most hitter-friendly stadiums in the MLB, and he is expected to hit second in the New York Yankees’ lineup. He’s no longer a “cheap” option, but he can be considered in all leagues tonight.
Jason’s Reaction: I’ll never say no to Judge, especially when he has been playing this well.
Jason’s Pick: Matthew Joyce
Matthew Joyce is expected to hit fifth tonight for the Atlanta Braves, and he gets a great matchup against Ivan Nova and the Chicago White Sox. He enters tonight’s game with a positive 0.053 ISO differential against right-handed pitching, and the Braves are expected to score just under 6 runs according to Vegas. In the last 15 days, Joyce has an average exit velocity on batted balls of 93 MPH, a fly ball rate just under 35%, and a hard hit rate over 40%. In his last 10 games, that has translated to a .375 batting average, 1 home run, and 5 RBIs. He has plenty of upside, especially considering the RBI opportunities that he should be presented with. Joyce is cheap enough to be rostered in all leagues.
Justin’s Reaction: Joyce is likely who I would’ve recommended had I not used Judge. A+ on this recommendation.
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