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Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack
Colorado Rockies
The Colorado Rockies continue to make up the “Chalk Stack” when they play at home. They have found plenty of offensive success, ranking seventh in the MLB in runs scored, 21st in home runs, fifth in team batting average, and eighth in OPS through 135 games. Colorado has been significantly better at home, where they boast a .306 average with a .527 slugging percentage and a .893 OPS through 66 games. They are averaging 6.4 runs and 4.3 extra-base hits per game in those contests, as well. The Rockies are currently -137 favorites in a game set at 14 runs, giving them the highest implied run total on the slate at 7.6 runs tonight.
Colorado gets an elite matchup against Dario Agrazal, who has seen plenty of ups and downs through 10 games (9 starts) in 2019. In those games, he owns a 3-3 record with a 4.41 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP. He’s due for regression, though, as he also possesses a 6.38 xFIP and a 5.84 SIERA this season. Agrazal has struggled with 43.2% fly ball and 14.3% HR/FB rates in 2019. He has also given up a 31.7% hard hit rate, while recording an 18.3% soft hit rate this season. He brings 11.9% strikeout and 5.8% swinging strike rates into this game, as well. Agrazal has been a reverse splits pitcher this season, allowing right-handed batters to hit for a .302 average with a .500 slugging percentage and a .360 wOBA. He has given up a .217/.446/.323 line to left-handed batters this season, and his 6.71 xFIP against lefties suggests he’s due for massive regression in that area. Agrazal has also allowed his opponents to post a .268/.526/.359 line against him on the road in 2019. Colorado is the easiest stacking option on this slate tonight.
Important Odds: Vegas Stack
Minnesota Twins
The Minnesota Twins possess arguably the best offense in the MLB, leading the league in home runs through 133 games. They also rank second in the MLB in runs scored and OPS, while also ranking third in team batting average. The Twins have found more success on the road in 2019, where they are hitting for a .277 average with a .517 slugging percentage and a .856 OPS through 65 games. They are also averaging 6.2 runs and 4.3 extra-base hits per game in those contests. Minnesota is a -258 favorite in a game set at 10 runs, and they feature an implied run total of 6.3 runs.
The Twins get a great matchup against Edwin Jackson, who has posted a 3-7 record with an 8.70 ERA and a 1.87 WHIP through 12 games (9 starts) this season. He has also struggled with a 5.70 xFIP and a 5.43 SIERA. Jackson has allowed his opponents to post 36.8% fly ball and 26.6% HR/FB rates against him. He has given up a 46.3% hard hit rate to go along with a 13.7% soft hit rate in 2019, as well. He enters this game with 16% strikeout and 9.4% swinging strike rates. Jackson has been at his worst against right-handed batters, allowing them to hit for a .379 average with a .750 slugging percentage and a .477 wOBA. He has also given up a .281/.594/.395 line to left-handed batters this season. Furthermore, Jackson has allowed his opponents to post a .237/.740/.453 line against him in Detroit in 2019. Similarly to Agrazal, Jackson is due for quite a bit of regression against left-handed batters, but there’s very little reason to believe he’ll find any success against Minnesota tonight. They would likely be the chalk on this slate if we didn’t have such a great matchup in Colorado.
Wildcard GPP: Low Owned Stack
Washington Nationals
The Washington Nationals feature one of the highest upside offenses in the MLB this season. They rank eighth in the league in runs scored, 18th in home runs, seventh in team batting average, and sixth in OPS through 132 games. They have been more successful in Washington, where they have posted a .273 average with a .486 slugging percentage and a .838 OPS. They are also averaging 5.5 runs and 3.8 extra-base hits per game through 64 home games. The Nationals are -243 favorites in a game set at 10 runs, and they own an implied run total of 6.2 runs tonight.
Elieser Hernandez will be taking the mound for the Miami Marlins tonight. He has recorded a 3-5 record with a 4.97 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP through 17 games (11 starts). He has also posted a 5.21 xFIP and a 4.46 SIERA this season. Hernandez has struggled with 49.4% fly ball and 20% HR/FB rates in 2019. He has allowed his opponents to post a 40.3% hard hit rate against him, while recording a 17.6% soft hit rate. He enters this game with 24.1% strikeout and 11.3% swinging strike rates, as well. Hernandez has struggled against left-handed batters, allowing them to hit for a .274 average with a .632 slugging percentage and a .402 wOBA. He has also struggled on the road where his opponents boast a .263/.611/.401 line against him in 2019. The Nationals are likely to go overlooked because of Coors, making them an elite tournament stack tonight.
Hidden Gem: Value Pitcher
Max Fried
Fried has thrown well this season, posting a 14-4 record with a 4.03 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP through 27 games (25 starts). He also owns a 3.46 xFIP and a 3.99 SIERA in those games. Fried has held his opponents to a 22.5% fly ball rate, while giving up a 19.1% HR/FB rate. He enters this game with 36.4% hard hit and 16.7% soft hit rates, as well. Fried also brings 23.7% strikeout and 10.8% swinging strike rates into this game. He’s a -203 favorite in a game set at 9.5 runs, giving his opponents an implied run total of only 3.9 runs tonight.
Fried gets an elite matchup against the Chicago White Sox, who lead the slate in strikeouts per at-bat. They also rank in the bottom-seven of the slate in team wOBA. Fried has been significantly better against left-handed batters, holding them to a .231 average with a .331 slugging percentage and a .265 wOBA. He has also held his opponents to a .277/.431/.322 line at home this season. Fried is entirely too cheap, and he can be considered in all leagues on this slate.
Hidden Gem: Value Hitter
Brandon Belt
Belt is hitting for a .229 average with a .457 slugging percentage and a .757 OPS over his last 10 games. He owns four extra-base hits (two home runs), nine RBIs, and one stolen base over that span. Belt also boasts 55% hard hit and 50% fly ball rates to go along with a 95 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days. He brings 0.051 wOBA and 0.051 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching into this game, as well.
Belt gets a tough matchup against Dinelson Lamet, who enters this game with a 3.84 xFIP and a 4.01 SIERA through nine starts. He has been significantly worse against left-handed batters, though, allowing them to hit for a .274 average with a .440 slugging percentage and a .336 wOBA. Belt is expected to hit second in the San Francisco Giants lineup, and he makes a solid option for a low price tag tonight.
Follow Justin Bales on Twitter (@BalesSJustin)
