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Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack
Minnesota Twins
The Minnesota Twins have featured an elite offense in 2019, leading the league in home runs and OPS, while also ranking second in the MLB in runs scored and third in team batting average through 109 games. Minnesota has found more success on the road this season, but they still own a .265 average with a .484 slugging percentage and a .826 OPS through 53 home games. They are averaging 5.5 runs and 4.0 extra-base hits per game in those contests, as well. The Twins are -213 favorites in a game set at 10 runs, giving them an implied run total of 6.0 runs tonight.
Minnesota gets a great matchup against Danny Duffy, who has posted a 5-5 record with a 4.42 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP through 17 starts. He also owns a 5.04 xFIP and a 4.85 SIERA this season. Duffy has struggled with the long ball, allowing his opponents to post 40.3% fly ball and 13.2% HR/FB rates in 2019. He has given up a 39.6% hard hit rate to go along with a 14.4% soft hit rate this season, as well. He also brings 20.7% strikeout and 10% swinging strike rates into this game. Duffy has struggled more against left-handed batters, allowing them to hit for a .266 average with a .457 slugging percentage and a .354 wOBA. He has also given up a .263/.453/.327 line to right-handed batters, though. Duffy has also allowed his opponents to post a .261/.428/.331 line on the road against him in 2019. The Twins are likely to go slightly overlooked with this being a Coors slate, but they feature as much upside (and safety) as the Colorado Rockies in their particular matchups. Sometimes it’s smart to zig when everyone else zags in cash games.
Important Odds: Vegas Stack
Colorado Rockies
The Colorado Rockies continue to feature a strong offense, ranking sixth in the MLB in runs scored and team batting average, 22nd in home runs, and seventh in OPS through 110 games. The Rockies have found significantly more success at home, where they boast a .305 average with a .522 slugging percentage and a .888 OPS through 54 games. They are also averaging 6.5 runs and 4.3 extra-base hits per game in those contests. Colorado is a -122 favorite in a game set at 11.5 runs tonight, and they feature the highest implied run total on the slate at 6.1 runs.
The Rockies get a matchup against Madison Bumgarner tonight. He has thrown well this season, posting a 6-7 record with a 3.74 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP through 23 starts. He has also recorded a 4.07 xFIP and a 4.03 SIERA in those starts. Bumgarner owns 38.4% fly ball and 12.2% HR/FB rates this season. He has given up a 44.8% hard hit rate, while recording only a 14.2% soft hit rate, though. He also enters this game with 24.5% strikeout and 12% swinging strike rates. Bumgarner has struggled more against right-handed batters, allowing them to hit for a .270 average with a .447 slugging percentage and a .320 wOBA. He has also been at his worst on the road, as well, where he has allowed his opponents to hit for a .272/.465/.331 line. Those road woes are backed by a 4.41 xFIP in those innings. The Rockies may be the chalkiest stack on this slate, and both sides of this game can be considered in cash games for their price tags.
Wildcard GPP: Low Owned Stack
Toronto Blue Jays
The Toronto Blue Jays have seen plenty of ups and downs through 112 games in 2019. They currently rank 21st in the MLB in runs scored, 12th in home runs, 29th in team batting average, and 24th in OPS. They have found more success on the road, where they are hitting for a .248 average with a .415 slugging percentage and a .731 OPS. The Blue Jays are also averaging 4.8 runs and 3.1 extra-base hits per game away from Toronto this season. Tonight, they are -113 favorites in a game set at 10 runs, and they own an implied run total of 5.2 runs.
Dylan Bundy will be taking the mound for the Baltimore Orioles tonight. He has struggled through 20 starts in 2019, posting a 5-11 record with a 5.24 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP. He also owns a 4.81 xFIP and a 4.53 SIERA in those starts. Bundy has struggled with home runs this season, giving up 41.5% fly ball and 18.4% HR/FB rates. He has allowed his opponents to post a 32.5% hard hit rate against him, while recording only a 15.9% soft hit rate. He possesses 23.3% strikeout and 12.9% swinging strike rates in 2019, as well. Bundy has given up a .259 average with a .557 slugging percentage and a .368 wOBA to right-handed batters this season. He has also allowed lefties to post a .261/.443/.323 line against him in 2019. Bundy has also been at his worst at home, where his opponents have recorded a .299/.574/.382 line this season. The Blue Jays are arguably the hottest offense in the MLB over the last week, and they are likely to go overlooked on this slate. Everything is working in their favor, though, and they make an elite tournament stack tonight.
Hidden Gem: Value Pitcher
Aaron Sanchez
Sanchez has looked awful in 2019, posting a 3-14 record with a 6.07 ERA and a 1.69 WHIP through 23 starts. He has also struggled with a 5.08 xFIP and a 5.25 SIERA this season. He has also his opponents to a 28.7% fly ball rate, while allowing his opponents to post a 14.7% HR/FB rate against him. He has also given up a 39.2% hard hit rate to go along with a 17.7% soft hit rate. Sanchez owns 18.9% strikeout and 8.7% swinging strike rates in 2019. He’s a -200 favorite in a game set at 10 runs, giving his opponents an implied run total of only 4.2 runs.
Sanchez gets a matchup against the Seattle Mariners, who rank seventh on the slate in strikeouts per at-bat. They do feature an above average team wOBA, though. Sanchez has struggled against nearly everyone this season, but he now throws for the Houston Astros, who are known for fixing pitchers with their pitch mix. Will that happen in his first start after the trade? Maybe not, but I’m willing to take the chance for his current price tag.
Hidden Gems: Value Hitters
Yonder Alonso
Alonso has found plenty of success recently, posting a .353 average with a .706 slugging percentage and a 1.127 OPS over his last 10 games. He owns four extra-base hits (one home run) and three RBIs over that span, as well. Alonso also boasts 38% hard hit and 53% line drive rates to go along with a 93 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days. He has been slightly better against left-handed pitching this season, as he brings 0.041 wOBA and 0.038 ISO differentials against lefties into this game.
Alonso gets a matchup against Madison Bumgarner, who has already been outlined above. Alonso is expected to hit fourth in the Colorado Rockies lineup, and he’s far too cheap for his potential. Alonso can safely be considered in all leagues for a sub-$4K price tonight.
Follow Justin Bales on Twitter (@BalesSJustin)
