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Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack
Colorado Rockies
The Colorado Rockies have found plenty of success in 2019, ranking eighth in the MLB in runs scored and OPS, 21st in home runs, and fifth in team batting average through 134 games. Colorado has found significantly more success at home, where they are hitting for a .306 average with a .526 slugging percentage and a .893 OPS through 65 games. They are averaging 6.3 runs and 4.3 extra-base hits per game in those contests, as well. The Rockies are currently -110 favorites in a game set at 14.5 runs, giving them the highest implied run total on the slate at 7.4 runs.
Colorado gets a matchup against Trevor Williams, who has struggled through 20 starts this season. In those starts, he owns a 6-6 record with a 5.35 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP. He has also struggled with a 5.22 xFIP and a 5.12 SIERA. Williams has also allowed his opponents to record 38.7% fly ball and 14.2% HR/FB rates against him this season. He has given up a 33.2% hard hit rate to go along with an 18.4% soft hit rate in 2019, as well. He enters this game with 17.1% strikeout and 10.5% swinging strike rates. Williams has been at his worst against left-handed batters, allowing them to hit for a .337 average with a .572 slugging percentage and a .393 wOBA. He struggled against right-handed batters, as well, giving up a .246/.469/.315 line to them. Furthermore, Williams has allowed his opponents to post a .270/.478/.332 line against him on the road this season. Williams will be traveling into the most hitter friendly stadiums in the MLB tonight, and with limited games on this slate, Coors is the clear chalk.
Wildcard GPP: Low Owned Stack
Seattle Mariners
The Seattle Mariners have featured plenty of ups and downs throughout the season, ranking 14th in the MLB in runs scored, seventh in home runs, 27th in team batting average, and 16th in OPS through 134 games. They have found more success outside of Seattle, where they boast a .244 average with a .461 slugging percentage and a .782 OPS. They are also averaging 5.0 runs and 3.7 extra-base hits per game through 65 road contests. The Mariners are +147 underdogs in a game set at 10.5 runs, but they still own an implied run total of 4.7 runs tonight.
Lance Lynn will be taking the mound for the Texas Rangers tonight. He has thrown well through 27 starts, posting a 14-9 record with a 3.85 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP. His numbers are backed by a 3.79 xFIP and a 3.87 SIERA. Still, Lynn has given up a 36.1% fly ball rate, while holding his opponents to an 8.9% HR/FB rate in 2019. He has given up a 39.1% hard hit rate to go along with a 16.2% soft hit rate this season, as well. He also brings 27.4% strikeout and 12.4% swinging strike rates into this game. Lynn has struggled more against left-handed batters this season, allowing them to his for a .279 average with a .407 slugging percentage and a .318 wOBA. He has also given up a .260/.382/.293 line in Texas in 2019. The Mariners possess an offense that generally goes overlooked, but they feature elite power that can take down a tournament on a smaller slate like tonight.
Hidden Gem: Value Pitcher
Robert Dugger
Dugger has struggled in the Triple-A in 2019 after performing well in the Double-A through 13 starts. He then gave up six runs over five innings against the New York Mets in his MLB debut. The sample size is far too limited to trust, but it’s reasonable to believe he’ll never be a solid MLB pitcher. He’s currently a +148 underdog in a game set at 8.5 runs, giving his opponents an implied run total of 4.8 runs.
With that being said, Dugger gets an elite matchup against the Cincinnati Reds, who lead the slate in strikeouts per at-bat. They also feature a below average team wOBA. Most importantly, Dugger will be throwing in one of the most pitcher friendly stadiums in the MLB tonight. He’s cheap enough to pair with someone like Jacob deGrom, and there aren’t many solid salary relief options on this slate.
Hidden Gem: Value Hitter
Greg Garcia
Garcia is only hitting .200 with a .240 slugging percentage and a .595 OPS over his last 10 games. He owns one extra-base hit and one RBI over that span, as well. Over the last 15 days, Garcia possesses 37% hard hit and 29% fly ball rates with a 93 MPH exit velocity. He also brings 0.137 wOBA and 0.115 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching into this game.
Garcia gets a great matchup against Dereck Rodriguez, who enters this game with a 5.39 xFIP and a 5.52 SIERA through 21 games (12 starts). He has struggled against left-handed batters, allowing them to hit for a .238 average with a .462 slugging percentage and a .342 wOBA. Garcia is expected to lead off for the San Diego Padres, making him a solid option in all leagues tonight.
Follow Justin Bales on Twitter (@BalesSJustin)
