Pitcher
Justin’s Pick: Max Scherzer
Max Scherzer is an interesting option tonight. He has looked elite through 21 starts, posting a 2.92 xFIP and 2.95 SIERA in those games. He enters this game with elite 34.8% strikeout and 17% swinging strike rates. Scherzer gets an elite matchup against the Baltimore Orioles, who don’t strikeout at the highest rate on this slate, but do rank fourth last on the slate in team wOBA. Scherzer is coming back from an injury, so he’s expected to throw around 80-85 pitches tonight. With that being said, we get him at a bit of a discount, as he hasn’t been $11K or less in 10 consecutive games. Scherzer is a -391 favorite in a game set at 9 runs, and he makes for an outstanding option on this slate.
Jason’s Reaction: Scherzer is pitching against one of the worst teams in baseball. That is probably all that fantasy owners need to hear tonight.
Jason’s Pick: Kenta Maeda
Kenta Maeda provides at least a little bit of salary relief tonight on a slate that does not offer too many solid value pitching options. On the season, he has a K/9 over 10.0, and Vegas has this game set at 9 total runs. The San Diego Padres strikeout at an average rate, and Maeda should find around seven or eight, if he pitches deep into the game. The Los Angeles Dodgers are -180 betting favorites, giving the Padres a lowly implied run total of 3.9. San Diego is a pitcher-friendly stadium, and over the last 15 days, Maeda has a good ground ball rate of 39%. His strike percentage is 64%, and his average speed on pitches is up 0.7 MPH from his 12-month average. Most importantly, his lower price tag makes it much easier for him to hit value.
Justin’s Reaction: I’m 100% a fan of Maeda tonight. He’s a great option for a relatively low price tag.
Infielder
Justin’s Pick: Harold Castro
If you’re going to play Scherzer tonight, you need to find a few salary relief options. Harold Castro fits the bill. He’s hitting .300 with a .425 slugging percentage and .718 OPS over his last 10 games. He boasts three extra-base hits (one home run), six RBIs, and one stolen base over that span, as well. He owns 56% hard hit and 26% fly ball rates with a 98 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days. Castro gets a solid matchup against Aaron Civale, and brings 0.108 wOBA and 0.119 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching into this game. He’s expected to hit second in the Detroit Tigers’ lineup, and he makes a solid option in all leagues.
Jason’s Reaction: Castro is cheap enough to use in all leagues, yes.
Jason’s Pick: Ryan O’Hearn
Ryan O’Hearn is not a good baseball player, but he recently hit 2 home runs against the Cleveland Indians, posting 34 fantasy points in 3 at-bats. The Kansas City Royals are comfortable starting him at first base against right-handed pitching with Cheslor Cuthbert struggling for the time being. He is expected to hit fifth tonight, and he has plenty of upside for his price tag. Forget about all the advanced metrics, O’Hearn is $2.8K, and he has plenty of home run power. With so many high-priced pitching options available, he is worth consideration in all leagues, despite his lackluster 2019 campaign thus far.
Justin’s Reaction: O’Hearn’s advanced metrics suggest he’s in line for a breakout, and he’s entirely too cheap. Great call.
Outfielder
Justin’s Pick: Victor Reyes
Victor Reyes is the perfect pairing with Castro, as he’s expected to leadoff for the Detroit Tigers. He has been playing well recently, as he’s hitting for a .289 average with a .422 slugging percentage and .741 OPS over his last 10 games. Over that span, he has posted four extra-base hits (one home run), four RBIs, and one stolen base. Reyes also possesses 47% hard hit and 36% line drive rates to go along with a 93 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days. He gets the plus matchup against Civale, and brings 0.073 wOBA and 0.107 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching into this game. Reyes (and Castro) isn’t the sexiest player on the slate, but he’ll allow you to pay up for at least one pitcher on a slate that is loaded with expensive arms.
Jason’s Reaction: This is very similar reasoning to the O’Hearn recommendation above. I like it. Reyes has decent upside, especially at the leadoff spot.
Jason’s Pick: Robbie Grossman
Robbie Grossman continues to provide quite a bit of value at the outfield position. He is expected to hit second tonight for the Oakland Athletics, and they, as a team, are expected to score over five runs. In the last 15 days, Grossman has an average exit velocity on batted balls of 94 MPH, a fly ball rate just under 35%, and a hard hit rate over 45%. Much like Victor Reyes, he is not the sexiest recommendation available, but his lower price tag will open up salary room for higher-priced pitching options, as well as higher-priced stacks. If fantasy owners are looking to spend up, Nelson Cruz is all but definitely going to hit a home run off of Ross Detwiler. You are welcome.
Justin’s Reaction: We have all the salary relief plays tonight, eh? Count me in. Bonus content on Cruz here.
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