What’s up, Karma Nation!? I have some great news for you! If you’re thinking about joining the Karma Nation, use Promo Code “TOUCHDOWN” to get 20% of ANY package for the lifetime of that subscription! Click here for our packages.
Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack
Boston Red Sox
The Boston Red Sox continue to make up the “Chalk Stack.” They have featured a dominant offense in 2019, leading the league in team batting average through 133 games. They also rank second in the MLB in runs scored, ninth in home runs, and fourth in OPS. Boston has been better at home, but they are still hitting for a .266 average with a .454 slugging percentage and a .792 through 65 games. They are averaging 5.6 runs and 3.5 extra-base hits per game in those contests. The Red Sox are -174 favorites in a game set at 13.5 runs, giving them the highest implied run total on the slate at 7.8 runs.
Boston gets an elite matchup against Peter Lambert, who has posted a 2-4 record with a 6.40 ERA and a 1.61 WHIP through 14 starts. He has also struggled with a 5.17 xFIP and a 5.45 SIERA in those starts. Lambert has held his opponents to a 28.8% fly ball rate, although he has given up a 20% HR/FB rate in 2019. He has allowed his opponents to post a 37.8% hard hit rate against him, while recording a 17.7% soft hit rate. He brings 13.7% strikeout and 6.5 swinging strike rates into this game, as well. Lambert has been at his worst against left-handed batters, allowing them to hit for a .320 average with a .576 slugging percentage and a .393 wOBA this season. He has also given up a .290/.519/.361 line to right-handed batters in 2019. Lambert has struggled in Colorado this season, giving up a .293/.561/.373 line to his opponents at home. The Red Sox possess an implied run total that is 1.6 runs higher than the next closest on this slate, and there are more than enough salary relief options at pitcher to easily fit Boston in cash games.
Important Odds: Vegas Stack
Minnesota Twins
The Minnesota Twins possess one of the highest upside offenses in the MLB, leading the league in home runs. They also rank third in the MLB in runs scored, fourth in team batting average, and second in OPS through 131 games. The Twins have found more success on the road, where they boast a .275 average with a .513 slugging percentage and a .850 OPS through 63 games. They are also averaging 6.2 runs and 4.3 extra-base hits per game in those contests. Minnesota is a -193 favorite in a game set at 10.5 runs, and they feature one of the highest implied run totals on the slate at 6.2 runs.
The Twins get an outstanding matchup against Ross Detwiler, who enters this game with a 2-3 record, 5.51 ERA, and 1.48 WHIP through 12 games (7 starts). He also possesses a 4.72 xFIP and a 4.58 SIERA in those games. Detwiler has only given up a 32.1% fly ball rate in 2019, but he has allowed his opponents to record a 30% HR/FB rate against him this season. He has posted 36.1% hard hit and 17.1% soft hit rates in 2019, as well. Furthermore, he brings 16.9% strikeout and 7.2% swinging strike rates into this game. Detwiler has been worse against right-handed batters, as they are hitting for a .326 average with a .617 slugging percentage and a .410 wOBA against him in 2019. Left-handed batters have found success against him, though, as they own a .235/.510/.317 line against him this season. Detwiler has been at his best at home, but he’s due for regression in Chicago. It isn’t likely that he throws overly deep into this game, and the White Sox only feature an average bullpen. That’s another part of this game that Minnesota’s offense can take advantage of tonight.
Wildcard GPP: Low Owned Stack
Cleveland Indians
The Cleveland Indians have seen mixed results throughout the 2019 season, ranking 17th in the MLB in runs scored, 18th in home runs, 16th in team batting average, and 15th in OPS through 132 games. They have found more success outside of Cleveland, where they possess a .258 average with a .447 slugging percentage and a .777 OPS this season. They are averaging 4.9 runs and 3.6 extra-base hits per game through 64 games in Cleveland, as well. The Indians are currently -185 favorites in a game set at 9.5 runs, and they own an implied run total of 5.6 runs tonight.
Jordan Zimmermann will be taking the mound for the Detroit Tigers tonight. He has struggled through 17 starts in 2019, posting a 1-9 record with a 6.48 ERA and a 1.46 WHIP. He has also struggled with a 5.00 xFIP and a 5.03 SIERA. Zimmermann has given up 35.4% fly ball and 12.5% HR/FB rates in 2019. He has allowed his opponents to post a 41.5% hard hit rate against him, while recording only a 13.4% soft hit rate this season. He also owns 16.8% strikeout and 8.7% swinging strike rates. Zimmermann has allowed left-handed batters to hit for a .313 average with a .513 slugging percentage and a .376 wOBA this season. He has given up a .279/.477/.321 line to right-handed batters, as well. As if that isn’t enough, Zimmermann’s opponents possess a .357/.580/.412 line against him in Detroit in 2019. Cleveland is likely to go overlooked on this slate, but they come with tremendous upside.
Hidden Gem: Value Pitcher
Anthony DeSclafani
DeSclafani has thrown well in 2019, posting an 8-7 record with a 4.27 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP through 25 starts. He has also recorded a 4.46 xFIP and a 4.38 SIERA in 2019. DeSclafani has given up 39.9% fly ball and 16.9% HR/FB rates, though. He has also allowed a 40.6% hard hit rate to go along with an 18% soft hit rate in 2019. DeSclafani brings 23.8% strikeout and 10.6% swinging strike rates into this game, as well. He’s currently a -149 favorite in a game set at 8 runs, giving his opponents an implied run total of only 3.6 runs tonight.
DeSclafani gets a plus matchup against the Miami Marlins, who rank second on the slate in strikeouts per at-bat and fourth last in team wOBA. DeSclafani has been better against right-handed batters, holding them to a .232 average with a .378 slugging percentage and a .266 wOBA. He has given up a .268/.471/.330 line on the road, though. With that being said, this is an elite matchup in one of the most pitcher friendly stadiums in the MLB. DeSclafani makes an outstanding option in all leagues tonight.
Hidden Gem: Value Hitter
Ryan O’Hearn
O’Hearn has been struggling recently, as he’s only hitting .152 with a .364 slugging percentage and a .627 OPS over his last 10 games. He owns three extra-base hits (two home runs) and three RBIs over that span, as well. O’Hearn may be in line for a breakout, as he possesses 56% hard hit and 32% fly ball rates to go along with a 97 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days. He brings 0.085 wOBA and 0.112 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching into this game, as well.
O’Hearn gets a plus matchup against Tanner Roark, who owns a 4.48 xFIP and a 4.51 SIERA this season. He has been at his worst against left-handed batters, allowing them to hit for a .302 average with a .498 slugging percentage and a .377 wOBA this season. He has also given up a .276/.440/.333 line on the road in 2019. O’Hearn is expected to hit fifth in the Kansas City Royals lineup, and he’s a solid option in all leagues for his current price tag.
Follow Justin Bales on Twitter (@BalesSJustin)
