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Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack
Boston Red Sox
The Boston Red Sox feature one of the best offenses in the MLB, leading the league in team batting average through 132 games. They also rank third in the MLB in runs scored, ninth in home runs, and fourth in OPS. Boston has been better at home this season, but they are still hitting for a .266 average with a .451 slugging percentage and a .788 OPS through 64 road games. They are averaging 5.5 runs and 3.4 extra-base hits per game in those contests, as well. The Red Sox are -138 favorites in a game set at 13.5 runs, giving them the highest implied run total on the slate at 7.4 runs.
Boston gets a matchup against Rico Garcia, who will be making his MLB debut tonight. He has struggled through 12 games in the MiLB, posting a 2-4 record with a 7.16 ERA and a 1.75 WHIP. He has also given up a 6.23 xFIP in those starts. Garcia has also struggled with 38.9% fly ball and 18.1% HR/FB rates in Triple-A this season. Furthermore, he enters this game with a 17.4% strikeout rate, although that is a bit below his MiLB career average. Garcia is a right-handed pitcher, suggesting he could struggle more against left-handed batters at the Major League level. With that being said, there’s very little reason to believe he’ll find success against right-handed batters at this level either. Garcia now finds himself in a matchup against one of the best offenses in the MLB in the most hitter friendly stadium in the league. Garcia isn’t likely to ever find success at the Major League level, as he was only a 30th round draft pick in 2016. The Red Sox make up the safest stacking option on this slate tonight.
Important Odds: Vegas Stack
Colorado Rockies
The Colorado Rockies have seen mixed results in 2019, ranking eighth in the MLB in runs scored and OPS, 20th in home runs, and fifth in team batting average through 132 games. The Rockies have found significantly more success at home, where they boast a .305 average with a .528 slugging percentage and a .894 OPS through 63 games. They are also averaging 6.4 runs and 4.3 extra-base hits per game in those contests. The Rockies are +126 underdogs in a game set at 13.5 runs tonight, but they feature one of the highest implied run totals on the slate at 6.3 runs.
The Phillies get a great matchup against Rick Porcello tonight. He has struggled through 26 starts, posting an 11-10 record with a 5.49 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP. He has also struggled with a 5.42 xFIP and a 5.09 SIEAR in those starts. Porcello has given up a 43.1% fly ball rate, although he has held his opponents to a 12.7% HR/FB rate. He also enters this game with 33.1% hard hit and 21.3% soft hit rates in 2019. He brings 17.6% strikeout and 7.7% swinging strike rates into this game. Porcello has been at his worst against left-handed batters, allowing them to hit for a .282 average with a .491 slugging percentage and a .347 wOBA this season. He has also given up a .266/.472/.325 line to right-handed batters in 2019. Furthermore, Porcello has allowed his opponents to record a .313/.572/.381 line against him on the road. He’ll be throwing in the most hitter friendly stadium in the MLB tonight, and the Rockies could go a bit overlooked in this game. They should still feature a bit of ownership, but they won’t be the “Chalk Stack” on this slate.
Wildcard GPP: Low Owned Stack
Philadelphia Phillies
The Philadelphia Phillies have featured plenty of ups and downs throughout the 2019 season. They currently rank 15th in the MLB in runs scored, 23rd in home runs, 22nd in team batting average, and 20th in OPS through 130 games. They have been at their best in Philadelphia, where they have posted a .249 average with a .447 slugging percentage and a .776 OPS. They are also averaging 5.1 runs and 3.5 extra-base hits per game through 67 home contests. The Phillies are -140 favorites in a game set at 10 runs, and they own an implied run total of 5.5 runs tonight.
Steven Brault will be taking the mound for the Pittsburgh Pirates. He has thrown relatively well through 19 games (13 starts), recording a 3-3 record with a 3.98 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP. He’s due for regression, though, as he enters this game with a 5.05 xFIP and a 5.03 SIERA. Brault has given up a 36.4% fly ball rate in 2019, although he has held his opponents to a 9.2% HR/FB rate. Brault has also allowed his opponents to record a 36.6% hard hit rate to go along with a 19.5% soft hit rate. He enters this game with 20.3% strikeout and 9.6% swinging strike rates, as well. Brault has been at his worst against right-handed batters, allowing them to hit for a .276 average with a .432 slugging percentage and a .345 wOBA this season. He has given up a .286/.435/.344 line on the road in 2019, as well. The Phillies are likely to utilize a right-handed heavy offense in this game tonight, making them an extremely high upside stack on this slate.
Hidden Gem: Value Pitcher
Adrian Houser
Houser has been performing well this season, posting a 6-5 record with a 3.62 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP through 28 games (11 starts). He has also recorded a 3.64 xFIP and a 3.90 SIERA this season. Houser has held his opponents to a 24.6% fly ball rate, although he has given up a 20% HR/FB rate. He also enters this game with 35.7% hard hit and 19.4% soft hit rates. Houser brings 24.7% strikeout and 10.1% swinging strike rates into this game, as well. He’s a -134 favorite in a game set at 9 runs, giving his opponents an implied run total of 4.9 runs.
Houser gets a great matchup against the St. Louis Cardinals, who strikeout at an above average rate on this slate. They also feature a below average team wOBA. Houser has been at his best against right-handed batters, holding them to a .216 average with a .322 slugging percentage and a .257 wOBA. He has also held his opponents to a .202/.330/.268 line in Milwaukee in 2019. Houser has been throwing 90+ pitches on a consistent basis, and he’s far too cheap on this slate.
Hidden Gem: Value Hitter
Harold Castro
Castro has been playing well recently, posting a .300 average with a .425 slugging percentage and a .718 OPS over his last 10 games. He owns three extra-base hits (one home run), six RBIs, and one stolen base over that span, as well. Castro also possesses a 56% hard hit rate with a 98 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days. He brings 0.108 wOBA and 0.119 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching into this game, as well.
Castro gets a great matchup against Adam Plutko, who enters this game with a 5.74 xFIP and a 5.38 SIERA. He has been at his worst against left-handed batters, allowing them to hit for a .286 average with a .529 slugging percentage and a .353 wOBA this season. He has also struggled on the road, where he has given up a .296/.516/.349 line in 2019. Castro is hitting fourth in the Detroit Tigers lineup, and he’s cheap enough to be considered in all leagues.
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