Pitcher
Justin’s Pick: Dustin May
Dustin May is coming off of a terrible start against the Atlanta Braves, moving his record to 1-2 with a 4.26 ERA and 1.21 WHIP. He enters this game with a 3.99 xFIP and 4.31 SIERA. May has also posted a 4.08 xFIP or lower in each of his first three MLB games before posting a 7.21 xFIP in Atlanta. He has seen mixed strikeout results throughout his MiLB career, and he owns 19% strikeout and 9.7% swinging strike rates through four MLB games (three starts). May gets a great matchup against the San Diego Padres, who rank third on the slate in strikeouts per at-bat. They have also struggled with their team wOBA. May is currently a -146 favorite in a game set at 8.5 runs, giving the Padres an implied run total of only 3.9 runs. May is a solid option on DraftKings, and he is far too cheap on FanDuel. He can be used in all leagues on both sites.
Jason’s Reaction: May makes a lot of sense on a slate that has few solid pitching options to choose from.
Jason’s Pick: Pablo Lopez
Sonny Gray is scheduled to take the mound for the Cincinnati Reds tonight, and he is the best pitching option on DraftKings in cash games. However, in tournaments, value is much more important. Pablo Lopez was recently activated from the 10-day DL, and he will make his first start since the middle of June. In his last 10 games, which were admittedly a long time ago, Lopez averaged over 15 fantasy points per game. It is likely that the Marlins will limit the 23-year-old’s pitch count tonight, but he should see enough work to hit value at his lower price tag. His strikeout prediction is higher than any other pitcher on tonight’s slate, and Vegas has this game set at 7.5 total runs. Lopez is a +143 betting underdog, but the Reds’ implied run total is only 4.2. Lopez has plenty of upside tonight, and he is worth consideration in tournaments.
Justin’s Reaction: Lopez is the top option for his price on DraftKings tonight.
Infielder
Justin’s Pick: Paul Goldschmidt
Paul Goldschmidt has caught fire recently, posting a .333 average with a .641 slugging percentage and a 1.022 OPS over his last 10 games. He boasts six extra-base hits (three home runs) with eight RBIs over that span, as well. He enters this game with 56% hard hit and 36% line drive rates to go along with a 96 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days. Goldschmidt gets a plus matchup against Gio Gonzalez, and he brings 0.035 wOBA and 0.093 ISO differentials against left-handed pitching into this game. He’s expected to hit third in the St. Louis Cardinals’ lineup, and he’s cheap enough to safely be used in all leagues tonight.
Jason’s Reaction: I was wondering when Goldschmidt was going to start acting like Goldschmidt again. The time is now.
Jason’s Pick: Justin Turner
Justin Turner is expected to hit second tonight for the Los Angeles Dodgers, and the San Diego Padres are scheduled to start Eric Lauer. Vegas has this game set at 9 total runs, and the Dodgers are -141 betting favorites, giving them an implied run total of 4.9. Turner will enter tonight’s game with a 0.065 ISO differential against the left-handed Lauer, and on the season, he is hitting 0.048 HR/AB. In his last 10 games, he is hitting over .300 with 3 home runs and 4 RBIs. His advanced metrics back up his performance level. In the last 15 days, he has an average exit velocity on batted balls of 97 MPH, a fly ball rate of 50%, and a hard hit rate over 60%. Justin has been recommending Turner all season long, but I got to him first today.
Justin’s Reaction: Turner is always a great option, especially against left-handed pitching, and he can be used in all leagues on this slate.
Outfielder
Justin’s Pick: A.J. Pollock
The Los Angeles Dodgers generally turn to A.J. Pollock as their leadoff option against left-handed pitching. He gets a plus matchup against Eric Lauer, and he enters this game with a 0.046 wOBA differential against lefties. Pollock has recorded a .259 average with a .407 slugging percentage and .782 OPS over his last 10 games. In those contests, he owns two extra-base hits (one home run), two RBI, and one stolen base. Most importantly, Pollock boasts 71% hard hit and 38% fly ball rates with a 96 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days. He’s a strong option in all leagues on this smaller slate.
Jason’s Reaction: It’s funny – Justin and I were just discussing how much I hate the Dodgers. Sometimes fantasy owners have to shove that hate deep down and roster the most effective fantasy players. Pollock is a solid option.
Jason’s Pick: Robbie Grossman
Robbie Grossman is expected to hit second tonight for the Oakland Athletics, and he has been overlooked by fantasy owners for awhile now. The Kansas City Royals are scheduled to start Brad Keller, and Vegas has this game set at 9 total runs. The Athletics are -153 betting favorites, giving them an implied run total of 5.0. Grossman has very little power, but he is hitting at the top of a lineup that is expected to score frequently. In the last 15 days, he has an average exit velocity on batted balls of 94 MPH, a fly ball rate over 30%, and a hard hit rate over 45%. That has translated to a batting average over .300, 1 home run, and 4 RBIs over his last 10 games. Grossman is also hitting significantly better away from home, so being outside of Oakland could actually help his cause tonight.
Justin’s Reaction: You are on fire tonight. Grossman was going to be my pick here, and I love him for his price tag.
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