What’s up, Karma Nation!? I have some great news for you! If you’re thinking about joining the Karma Nation, use Promo Code “TOUCHDOWN” to get 20% of ANY package for the lifetime of that subscription! Click here for our packages.
Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack
New York Yankees
The New York Yankees possess arguably the best offense in the MLB, leading the league in runs scored through 132 games. They also rank second in the MLB in home runs, and third in team batting average and OPS. Surprisingly, New York has been better on the road, where they are hitting for a .275 average with a .502 slugging percentage and a .848 OPS through 63 games. They are averaging 6.3 runs and 4.2 extra-base hits per game in those contests, as well. The Yankees are -205 favorites in a game set at 9.5 runs, giving them the highest implied run total on the slate at 5.7 runs.
New York gets a matchup against Tommy Milone, who will be playing the role of the long reliever for the Seattle Mariners. Through 17 games (5 starts) in 2019, he has posted a 3-7 record with a 4.84 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP. He has also recorded a 4.47 xFIP and a 4.08 SIERA in those games. Milone has struggled with 42.4% fly ball and 18.3% HR/FB rates this season. He has also given up a 35.3% hard hit rate to go along with a 15.7% soft hit rate in 2019. He brings 22.1% strikeout and 10.5% swinging strike rates into this game, as well. Milone has been as his worst against left-handed batters, allowing them to hit for a .264 average with a .549 slugging percentage and a .345 wOBA. He has also given up a .246/.487/.308 line to right-handed batters in 2019. Furthermore, Milone has struggled at home, where his opponents own a .268/.552/.344 line against him in 2019. Normally, the chalk stack wouldn’t be playing in such a hitter friendly stadium, but this is a small slate and it’s difficult to avoid the Yankees in this matchup.
Important Odds: Vegas Stack
Philadelphia Phillies
The Philadelphia Phillies have seen plenty of offensive ups and downs throughout the 2019 season, ranking 17th in the MLB in runs scored, 24th in home runs, 22nd in team batting average, and 20th in OPS through 129 games. The Phillies have been better at home, where they boast a .249 average with a .444 slugging percentage and a .773 OPS through 66 games. They are also averaging 5.1 runs and 3.4 extra-base hits per game in those contests. Philadelphia is a -138 favorite in a game set at 9 runs tonight, and they feature an implied run total of 4.9 runs.
The Phillies get a great matchup against Joe Musgrove, who has recorded an 8-12 record with a 4.74 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP through 27 games (26 starts). He has also posted a 4.51 xFIP and a 4.48 SIERA this season. Musgrove has held his opponents to 35.9% fly ball and 12.3% HR/FB rates in 2019. He has given up a 37.8% hard hit rate, though, while recording an 18.5% soft hit rate. He enters this game with 20.7% strikeout and 11.2% swinging strike rates, as well. Musgrove has struggled significantly more against left-handed batters, allowing them to hit for a .278 average with a .498 slugging percentage and a .339 wOBA. He has also given up a .237/.407/.296 line to right-handed batters. Musgrove has held his opponents to a .250/.371/.296 line on the road this season, but his 4.65 road xFIP suggests he’s due for regression outside of Pittsburgh. The Phillies play in one of the most hitter friendly stadiums in the MLB, and there’s very little reason to believe they won’t find success in this particular matchup.
Hidden Gem: Value Pitcher
Pablo Lopez
Lopez has only thrown in 14 starts this season, posting a 5-5 record with a 4.23 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP. He has also posted a 3.97 xFIP and a 4.09 SIERA in those games. Lopez has held his opponents to 31.3% fly ball and 11.8% HR/FB rates in 2019. He has also held them to a 35.3% hard hit rate, while recording an 18.3% soft hit rate. Lopez also boasts a 23.3% strikeout rate to go along with a 10.8% swinging strike rate this season. He’s a +142 underdog in a game set at 7.5 runs tonight, giving his opponents an implied run total of 4.2 runs.
Lopez gets a solid matchup against the Cincinnati Reds, who don’t strikeout at the highest rate on this slate, but also don’t feature a high team wOBA. Lopez has found significantly more success against right-handed batters, holding them to a .186 average with a .336 slugging percentage and a .246 wOBA. He has also held his opponents to a .193/.293/.224 line at home this season. Lopez is expected to throw around 80-85 pitches tonight, and he can be considered in all leagues tonight.
Hidden Gem: Value Hitter
Robbie Grossman
Grossman has been playing well recently, posting a .306 average with a .500 slugging percentage and a .875 OPS over his last 10 games. He owns four extra-base hits (one home run) and four RBIs in those games, as well. Grossman also enters this game with 46% hard hit and 34% fly ball rates to go along with a 94 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days. He has been more powerful against right-handed pitching, bringing a 0.024 ISO differential against righties into this game.
Grossman gets a plus matchup against Brad Keller, who has posted a 4.87 xFIP and a 5.17 SIERA through 27 starts. He has struggled against left-handed batters, allowing them to hit for a .250 average with a .370 slugging percentage and a .313 wOBA. Grossman is expected to hit second in the Oakland A’s lineup, and he makes a strong play in all leagues tonight.
Follow Justin Bales on Twitter (@BalesSJustin)
