Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack
Colorado Rockies
The Colorado Rockies continue to make up the “Chalk Stack.” They rank 10th in the MLB in runs scored, while ranking eighth in team batting average and OPS through 128 games. They have also posted a .279 average with a .470 slugging percentage and an .811 OPS in Colorado. The Rockies are also averaging 5.0 runs and 3.5 extra-base hits per game at home this season. Tonight, they are -151 favorites in a game set at 11 runs, giving them the highest implied run total on the slate at 6.1 runs.
The Rockies get a good matchup against John Gant, who owns a 5-5 record with a 3.76 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP through 19 games (12 starts). He has also posted a 0.7 HR/9 with a 7.5 K/9 through 79 innings. He has struggled a bit against left-handed batters, allowing them to hit for a .229 average with a .422 slugging percentage and a .312 wOBA. He’s also allowing his opponents to hit for a .241/.355/.296 line on the road this season. Gant could see regression throughout the season, though, as he owns a 4.47 xFIP and a 4.57 SIERA this season, as well. Colorado features an elite offense, and they’re an outstanding stacking option tonight.
Wildcard GPP: Low Owned Stack
Arizona Diamondbacks
The Arizona Diamondbacks have featured a below average offense this season, ranking 14th in the MLB in runs scored, 25th in team batting average, and 19th in OPS. They have found success at home, though, where they are hitting .246 with a .403 slugging percentage and a .729 OPS. They are averaging 4.6 runs and 2.9 extra-base hits in Arizona, as well. The Diamondbacks are currently -159 favorites in a game set at 8.5 runs, and they feature an implied run total of 4.8 runs.
Wade LeBlanc will be taking the mound for the Seattle Mariners tonight. He has been struggling over his last 10 games, recording a 4-3 record with a 4.95 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP. He has also allowed a 1.9 HR/9, while posting a 7.0 K/9 over that span. LeBlanc has been a reverse splits pitcher this season, allowing left-handed batters to hit for a .276 average with a .480 slugging percentage and a .337 wOBA. He’s also allowing righties to hit for a .237/.411/.298 line this season. Arizona has found more success against left-handed pitching this season, and they’re a high upside stacking option tonight.
Bales’ Bombs: HR Predictor
Khris Davis
Davis continues to play at a high level, posting a .256 average with five home runs over his last 10 games. He has also recorded 43% hard-hit and 60% fly ball rates with a 95 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days. Davis also owns a .517 slugging percentage and a .275 ISO against left-handed pitching this season.
Travis Shaw
Shaw has looked outstanding at home this season, where he owns a .255 average with a .505 slugging percentage and an .861 OPS this season. He features 0.086 wOBA and 0.158 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching, as well. Shaw has also been playing well recently, possessing 39% hard-hit and 60% fly ball rates over his last 10 games.
Paul Goldschmidt
Goldschmidt has dominated left-handed pitching this season, posting a .612 slugging percentage with a .299 ISO against them. He has also been on fire recently, recording a .487 average with a .949 slugging percentage and a 1.504 OPS over his last 10 games. He also owns five home runs in those games.
Hidden Gem: Value Pitcher
Wei-Yin Chen
Chen has been an elite pitcher at home this season. Through 10 starts in Miami, he owns a 3-3 record with a 2.05 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP. He has also held his opponents to a 0.8 HR/9, while posting a 7.7 K/9 through 57 home innings. Chen is also averaging 19.9 DK points per game over his last six home starts. Tonight, he’s a sizeable underdog, but this was to be expected.
Chen gets a matchup against the Atlanta Braves, who rank fifth on the slate in strikeouts per at-bat, while also ranking below average in team wOBA. Chen is holding left-handed batters to a .211 average with a .386 slugging percentage and a .252 wOBA this season. He has also held his opponents to a .188/.308/.251 line in Miami. He has been playing well enough to be used in all leagues when he is starting at home.
Hidden Gems: Value Hitters
Marwin Gonzalez
Gonzalez continues to play at a high level, posting a .308 average with a .615 slugging percentage and a .957 OPS over his last 10 games. He also owns 43% hard-hit and 34% fly ball rates with a 92 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days. Gonzalez has hit right-handed pitching well, as well, recording 0.051 wOBA and 0.009 ISO differentials against righties.
He gets a great matchup against Jaime Barria, who has thrown surprisingly well against left-handed batters. He’s currently allowing lefties to hit for a .218 average with a .330 slugging percentage and a .258 wOBA. Gonzalez is expected to hit fourth in a healthy Astros offense, meaning he will see plenty of RBI and run opportunities. He can be used in all leagues.
Ryan O’Hearn
O’Hearn has been on a phenomenal hot streak recently. Over his last 10 games, he’s hitting .303 with an .818 slugging percentage and a 1.142 OPS. He owns seven extra-base hits (five home runs) and nine RBIs over that span. He has also posted 46% hard-hit and fly ball rates with a 96 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days. He also features elite 0.377 wOBA and 0.301 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching.
O’Hearn gets a tough matchup against Corey Kluber, who is allowing left-handed batters to hit for a .213 average with a .373 slugging percentage and a .267 wOBA. O’Hearn is hitting sixth in the Royals lineup, and he comes with tremendous upside. He is not safe enough for cash games, but he makes an elite leverage play in tournaments if you’re avoiding Kluber.
By: Justin Bales (Twitter)
