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Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack
Minnesota Twins
The Minnesota Twins have found plenty of offensive success in 2019, leading the league in home runs and OPS, while also ranking third in runs scored and fourth in team batting average through 128 games. Minnesota has been better on the road, but they still boast a .267 average with a .485 slugging percentage and a .822 OPS through 66 home games. They are averaging 5.5 runs and 3.9 extra-base hits per game in those contests, as well. The Twins are -303 favorites in a game set at 10 runs, giving them the highest implied run total on the slate at 6.5 runs.
Minnesota gets an elite matchup against Edwin Jackson, who has struggled through 11 games (8 starts) this season. In those games, he has posted a 3-6 record with an 8.46 ERA and a 1.88 WHIP. He has also recorded a 5.76 xFIP and a 5.49 SIERA this season. Jackson has allowed his opponents to post 36.3% fly ball and 26.3% HR/FB rates against him this season. He has also given up a 44.9% hard hit rate, while recording only a 13.3% soft hit rate. He brings 15.5% strikeout and 9.1% swinging strike rates into this game, as well. Jackson has been at his worst against right-handed batters, allowing them to record a .396 average with a .774 slugging percentage and a .493 wOBA this season. He has also given up a .262/.560/.374 line to left-handed batters in 2019. Furthermore, Jackson has struggled on the road, where his opponents boast a .349/.605/.425 line against him. Minnesota features one of the best offenses in the MLB this season, and there’s very little reason to believe they won’t find success in this matchup.
Wildcard GPP: Low Owned Stack
St. Louis Cardinals
The St. Louis Cardinals have struggled offensively this season, ranking 22nd in the MLB in runs scored and team batting average and 24th in home runs and OPS through 127 games. They have found more success in St. Louis, where they are hitting for a .251 average with a .393 slugging percentage and a .720 OPS. They are also averaging 4.6 runs and 2.5 extra-base hits per game through 62 home games. The Cardinals are currently -186 favorites in a game set at 9 runs, and they own an implied run total of 5.3 runs on this slate tonight.
Chi Chi Gonzalez will be taking the mound for the Colorado Rockies. He has struggled through seven games (six starts), posting an 0-4 record with a 5.87 ERA and a 1.57 WHIP. He also owns a 5.49 xFIP and a 5.91 SIERA in those games. Gonzalez has held his opponents to a 28.4% fly ball rate, although he has given up a 24.1% HR/FB rate this season. He also owns 13% strikeout and 7.3% swinging strike rates in 2019. Gonzalez has struggled most against left-handed batters, allowing them to hit for a .283 average with a .604 slugging percentage and a .414 wOBA. He has given up a .269/.463/.324 line to right-handed batters, as well, though. Gonzalez has been slightly worse on the road, where his opponents have recorded a .274/.536/.368 line against him this season. St. Louis has quietly found offensive success over the last week of play, as they are averaging 5.0 runs per game over that span. That success is likely to continue tonight in this matchup.
Hidden Gem: Value Pitcher
Felix Hernandez
Hernandez has only thrown in eight starts this season, posting a 1-4 record with a 6.52 ERA and a 1.50 WHIP. He is due for position regression, though, as he owns a 4.60 xFIP and a 4.39 SIERA. Hernandez has held his opponents to a 34.1% fly ball rate, although he has given up a 20.9% HR/FB rate. He also enters this game with 45.3% hard hit and 14.1% soft hit rates. Hernandez brings 19.5% strikeout and 9.1% swinging strike rates into this game, as well. He’s a -118 favorite in a game set at 9.5 runs, giving his opponents an implied run total of 4.6 runs.
Hernandez gets a plus matchup against the Toronto Blue Jays, who have been ice cold recently. They also rank fifth on the slate in strikeouts per at-bat. Hernandez has been significantly better against right-handed batters, holding them to a .278 average with a .481 slugging percentage and a .337 wOBA. He has also held his opponents to a .292/.500/.352 line at home this season. Hernandez isn’t safe enough for cash games, but he’s a solid tournament option.
Hidden Gem: Value Hitter
Jake Cave
Cave has caught fire recently, as he’s hitting for ra .484 average with a .806 slugging percentage and a 1.349 OPS over his last 10 games. He boasts six extra-base hits (two home runs) and four RBIs over that span, as well. Cave also possesses 82% hard hit and 52% line drive rates to go along with a 102 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days. Furthermore, he brings 0.012 wOBA and 0.012 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching into this game.
Cave gets a great matchup against Edwin Jackson, who has already been outlined above. Cave is expected to hit ninth in the Minnesota Twins lineup, which will likely keep his ownership low, but he makes an outstanding option in all leagues for his price tag tonight.
Follow Justin Bales on Twitter (@BalesSJustin)
