Pitcher
Justin’s Pick: Jack Flaherty
Jack Flaherty has taken his game to the next level recently, as he’s averaging over 25 fantasy points per game over his last 8 starts. He has recorded a 3.94 xFIP and a 3.95 SIERA through 25 starts this season. Flaherty brings 28.3% strikeout and 12.9% swinging strike rates into this game, as well. He gets a great matchup against the Colorado Rockies, who have struggled offensively on the road this season. Flaherty has been at his best in St. Louis, and he’s a -209 favorite in a game set at 8.5 runs tonight. It’s unlikely, although not impossible, to use Flaherty with Jacob deGrom, but both make great options tonight.
Jason’s Reaction: Flaherty is the second best pitching option available tonight.
Jason’s Pick: Jacob deGrom
Jacob deGrom is the most expensive pitching option on tonight’s MLB slate, but for good reason. On the season, he is sporting a 11.4 K/9, and his strikeout prediction is at least 2 entire strikeouts higher than the next highest pitcher (Jack Flaherty). With Mike Foltynewicz on the mound for the Atlanta Braves, the New York Mets are -173 favorites in a game set at 7.5 total runs, giving the Braves an implied run total of only 3.3. Over his last 10 starts, deGrom is averaging over 25 fantasy points per game, and he can be used in both cash games and tournaments. Do not overthink this tonight.
Justin’s Reaction: deGrom makes the best option on this slate. Feel free to use him in all leagues.
Infielder
Justin’s Pick: Justin Turner
Justin Turner has caught fire recently, posting a .361 average with a .778 slugging percentage and a 1.255 OPS over his last 10 games. He owns five home runs and seven RBIs over that span, as well. In those contests, he has recorded 60% hard hit and 50% fly ball rates with a 95 MPH exit velocity. Turner gets a decent matchup against James Paxton, and he brings a 0.075 ISO differential against left-handed pitching into this game. Turner is expected to hit second in the Los Angeles Dodgers’ lineup, and he’ll benefit from playing in Los Angeles tonight. He’s reasonably priced on this slate, and he can safely be considered in all leagues.
Jason’s Reaction: It is tough to say no to Turner, but I don’t particularly like the matchup.
Jason’s Pick: Harold Castro
Harold Castro is expected to hit second in the Detroit Tigers’ lineup tonight. Jose Berrios is on the mound for the Minnesota Twins, and despite his successful 2019 campaign, Castro enters the game with 0.120 ISO and 0.108 wOBA differentials against right-handed pitching. In the last 15 days, he has an average exit velocity on batted balls of 96 MPH, a fly ball rate over 30%, and a hard hit rate just under 50%. That has translated to a .270 batting average over his last 10 games, which has resulted in just under 5 fantasy points per game. Against the Tampa Bay Rays, four games ago, Castro posted over 20 fantasy points, showing off an impressive amount of upside for his price tag. With pitchers like Jacob deGrom scheduled to take the mound tonight, finding value is important, and Castro provides just that.
Justin’s Reaction: This is interesting. I don’t like the matchup, but I do like the price tag. I’d likely strictly use Castro in GPPs, though.
Outfielder
Justin’s Pick: Victor Reyes
Similarly to Harold Castro, Victor Reyes gets a touch matchup against Jose Berrios tonight. With that being said, he enters this game with 0.067 wOBA and 0.097 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching. Reyes has also been playing well recently, recording a .326 average with a .512 slugging percentage and a .867 OPS over his last 10 games. He boasts five extra-base hits (one home run) and four RBIs over that span, as well. Reyes enters this game with 46% hard hit and 39% line drive rates to go along with a 96 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days. He is extremely cheap, but he’s expected to leadoff for the Detroit Tigers. He may be best suited for tournaments, but he can be considered in cash games in the right situation.
Jason’s Reaction: Did we just create a little mini-stack? I like it.
Jason’s Pick: Trent Grisham
Trent Grisham is worth his price tag based solely on his position in the Milwaukee Brewers’ lineup. He is expected to hit leadoff tonight, and with Merrill Kelly on the mound, he should see an advantage seeing as Kelly is a right-handed pitcher. Currently, Grisham has negative splits against right-handed pitching, but he has too few at-bats for that to matter. On the season, he is hitting 0.057 HR/AB, and over the last 15 days, his average exit velocity on batted balls is 96 MPH, his fly ball rate is over 50%, and his hard hit rate is the same as his fly ball rate. Grisham is only hitting .182 in his last 10 games, but he has 2 home runs and 3 RBIs, resulting in over 6 fantasy points per game on average. He is another solid value option in tournaments and cash games.
Justin’s Reaction: Grisham is far too cheap. I’m not going to go here in cash if I don’t have to, but I also don’t think he’s the worst option.
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