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Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack
Minnesota Twins
The Minnesota Twins feature an elite offense, leading the league in home runs and OPS, while also ranking third in runs scored and fourth in team batting average through 127 games. Minnesota has been better on the road this season, but they are still hitting for a .267 average with a .483 slugging percentage and a .820 OPS through 65 home games. They are averaging 5.5 runs and 3.9 extra-base hits per game in those contests, as well. The Twins are -314 favorites in a game set at 9.5 runs, giving them the highest implied run total on the slate at 6.3 runs.
Minnesota gets an elite matchup against Drew VerHagen, who has struggled through 15 games (3 starts). In those games, he owns a 3-2 record with a 6.67 ERA and a 1.82 WHIP. He has also posted a 5.56 xFIP and a 5.34 SIERA in those games. VerHagen has held his opponents to a 31.3% fly ball rate, although he has given up a 16.1% HR/Fb rate this season. He has also allowed his opponents to post a 38.4% hard hit rate in 2019, while recording an 18.2% soft hit rate. He brings 16.4% strikeout and 8.9% swinging strike rates into this game, as well. VerHagen has been at his worst against left-handed batters this season, allowing them to hit for a .373 average with a .559 slugging percentage and a .424 wOBA. He has also given up a .254/.492/.354 line to right-handed batters, though. VerHagen has struggled on the road in 2019, as well, giving up a .338/.615/.438 line to his opponents away from home. The Twins were originally slated to face off against Matt Boyd, but they will be able to take advantage of the pitching change in this game.
Important Odds: Vegas Stack
Tampa Bay Rays
The Tampa Bay Rays have seen mixed results throughout the 2019 season, ranking 17th in the MLB in runs scored, 20th in home runs, 15th in team batting average, and 18th in OPS through 129 games. The Rays have found more success on the road, where they boast a .258 average with a .446 slugging percentage and a .775 OPS through 64 games. They are also averaging 5.0 runs and 3.5 extra-base hits per game in those contests. Tampa Bay is currently a -192 favorite in a game set at 10.5 runs, and they feature one of the highest implied run totals on the slate at 5.7 runs.
The Rays get arguably the best matchup on the slate against Ty Blach tonight. He has struggled through only four games (two starts) in 2019, posting an 0-1 record with a 12.06 ERA and a 2.30 WHIP. He has also struggled with a 6.52 xFIP and a 5.86 SIERA in those games. Blach has given up 41.4% fly ball and 16.7% HR/FB rates this season. He has also allowed his opponents to post a 51.7% hard hit rate in 2019 to go along with only a 12.1% soft hit rate. He enters this game with 16.1% strikeout and 7.1% swinging strike rates, as well. Blach has been a reverse splits pitcher, allowing left-handed batters to hit for a .409 average with a .682 slugging percentage and a .478 wOBA this season. He has also given up a .347/.612/.432 line to right-handed batters in 2019, though. Furthermore, Blach has struggled significantly more in Baltimore, where his opponents have posted a .438/.688/.493 line against him. Keep in mind, Blach has thrown limited innings in 2019, but there’s very little reason to believe he will find success in this matchup.
Wildcard GPP: Low Owned Stack
Milwaukee Brewers
The Milwaukee Brewers are another offense that has seen plenty of ups and downs this season. Through 127 games, they rank 16th in the MLB in runs scored, seventh in home runs, 18th in team batting average, and 11th in OPS. They have found more success in Milwaukee, where they possess a .257 average with a .455 slugging percentage and a .795 OPS. They are averaging 4.8 runs and 3.4 extra-base hits per game through 62 home games in 2019. Tonight, the Brewers are -148 favorites in a game set at 10 runs, and they own an implied run total of 5.6 runs tonight.
Merrill Kelly will be taking the mound for the Arizona Diamondbacks tonight. He has seen mixed results through 25 starts, recording a 9-12 record with a 4.63 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP. He has also posted a 4.68 xFIP and a 4.81 SIERA in those starts. Kelly has allowed his opponents to post 36.1% fly ball and 15% HR/FB rates against him this season. He has also given up a 42.4% hard hit rate to go along with a 13.1% soft hit rate in 2019. He brings 18.8% strikeout and 9.4% swinging strike rates into this game, as well. Kelly has been worse against left-handed batters, allowing them to hit for a .286 average with a .454 slugging percentage and a .332 wOBA. He has also given up a .252/.470/.316 line to right-handed batters in 2019. Furthermore, Kelly has struggled on the road, where his opponents boast a .270/.468/.338 line against him this season. The Brewers are likely to go overlooked on this slate, but they come with tremendous upside in this matchup.
Hidden Gem: Value Pitcher
Vince Velasquez
Velasquez has seen plenty of ups and downs through 26 games (16 starts) in 2019, posting a 5-7 record with a 4.35 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP. He has also recorded a 4.84 xFIP and a 4.44 SIERA. Velasquez has struggled with 46.7% fly ball and 17.9% HR/FB rates, though. He has also allowed his opponents to post a 46.7% hard hit rate against him to go along with a 14.2% soft hit rate. Velasquez brings 25.3% strikeout and 11.7% swinging strike rates into this game, as well. He’s currently a -173 favorite in a game set at 9 runs, giving his opponents an implied run total of only 3.9 runs tonight.
Velasquez gets a great matchup against the Miami Marlins, who lead the slate in strikeouts per at-bat, while also ranking second last in team wOBA. Velasquez has been similar against both left- and right-handed batters in 2019. He has given up a .240 average with a .495 slugging percentage and a .338 wOBA to right-handed batters, while lefties have posted a .254/.486/.332 line against him. Velasquez has also allowed his opponents to post a .253/.488/.342 line on the road this season, as well. With that being said, he’ll be throwing in one of the most pitcher friendly stadiums in the MLB, and this is purely a matchup based play.
Hidden Gem: Value Hitter
Victor Reyes
Reyes has found plenty of success recently, posting a .310 average with a .500 slugging percentage and a .841 OPS over his last 10 games. In those contests, he owns five extra-base hits (one home run) and four RBIs. Reyes also boasts 48% hard hit and 37% line drive rates with a 96 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days. He brings 0.079 wOBA and 0.118 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching into this game, as well.
Reyes gets a tough matchup against Jose Berrios, who enters this game with a 4.42 xFIP and a 4.31 SIERA through 25 starts. Berrios has been at his worst against left-handed batters, allowing them to hit for a .257 average with a .421 slugging percentage and a .308 wOBA this season. He has also given up a .261/.396/.301 line to his opponents on the road this season. Reyes is expected to lead off for the Detroit Tigers, and he’s far too cheap for his recent production.
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