Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack
Atlanta Braves
The Atlanta Braves have found plenty of offensive success this season, ranking sixth in the MLB in runs scored, third in team batting average, and eighth in OPS. They have featured a better offense on the road this season, where they are hitting .262 with a .440 slugging percentage and a .765 OPS. The Braves are averaging 4.8 runs and 3.6 extra-base hits per game away from home, as well. Tonight, the Braves are -175 favorites in a game set at 8.5 runs, giving them an implied run total of 4.9 runs.
The Braves get a great matchup against Elieser Hernandez, who owns a 2-6 record with a 5.08 ERA and a 1.43 WHIP through 26 games (five starts). He has also allowed a 1.3 HR/9 with a 6.2 K/9 through 56.2 innings. Hernandez has struggled against left-handed batters this season, allowing them to hit for a .300 average with a .528 slugging percentage and a .389 wOBA. The Braves have five dominant left-handed bats that they are expected to utilize throughout their lineup tonight. They will feature a ton of ownership because of the small slate, but it could be unwise to avoid them in cash games.
Wildcard GPP: Low Owned Stack
Miami Marlins
The Miami Marlins feature one of the worst offenses in the MLB this season. Through 128 games, they rank 29th in the Majors in runs scored, 23rd in team batting average, and 30th in OPS. They have also struggled a bit at home this season, posting a .240 average with a .343 slugging percentage and a .649 OPS. They’re averaging 3.5 runs and 2.1 extra-base hits per game in Miami, as well. They are underdogs in this game, and feature an implied run total of only 3.7 runs.
Sean Newcomb will be taking the mound for the Atlanta Braves tonight. He has struggled a bit over his last 10 starts, recording a 2-4 record with a 5.24 ERA and a 1.51 WHIP over that span. He has also allowed a 1.5 HR/9 with a 6.9 K/9 over his last 55 innings. He has also allowed 12 earned runs in his last two games. Newcomb has struggled more against right-handed batters, allowing them to hit for a .236 average with a .344 slugging percentage and a .299 wOBA. There are only four games tonight, and Miami is the only team that is likely to feature extremely low ownership.
Bales’ Bombs: HR Predictor
Khris Davis
Davis has been playing at a high level over his last 10 games, posting a .306 average with a .722 slugging percentage and a 1.131 OPS over that span. He owns 46% hard-hit and 61% fly ball rates with a 96 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days. Davis has also recorded a .596 slugging percentage and a .327 ISO against right-handed pitching in 2018.
Ronald Acuna
Acuna continues to perform well, possessing 62% hard-hit and 43% fly ball rates with a 98 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days. He owns a .361 average with a .750 slugging percentage and a 1.215 OPs over his last 10 games, as well. Acuna has also hit right-handed pitching well, recording a .580 slugging percentage and a .280 ISO against them this season.
Nick Markakis
Markakis has been struggling on paper recently, but he has posted 38% hard-hit and 40% fly ball rates with a 93 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days. Markakis also gets an elite matchup tonight, and owns a .483 slugging percentage and a .167 ISO against right-handed pitching this season.
Hidden Gem: Value Pitcher
Tyler Glasnow
Glasnow has struggled at times this season, but he has performed well in four starts for the Tampa Bay Rays. In those games, he has allowed seven earned runs over 18.2 innings, struggling in only one game. He has also flashed tremendous strikeout potential, posting an 11.6 K/9 in those games. Glasnow is a -172 favorite in a game set at only 7 runs, giving his opponents an implied run total of 3.0 runs.
He gets an elite matchup against the Kansas City Royals, who have featured one of the worst offenses in the MLB this season. Glasnow has dominated right-handed batters this season, holding them to a .203 average with a .331 slugging percentage and a .279 wOBA. Glasnow is a relatively safe option that also comes with plenty of upside. He can be considered in all leagues tonight.
Hidden Gems: Value Hitters
Mitch Garver
Garver has been playing well recently, hitting .273 with a .455 slugging percentage and a .760 OPS over his last 10 games. He also owns 43% hard-hit and 56% fly ball rates with a 95 mph exit velocity over that span. Garver also features 0.09 wOBA and 0.062 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching.
He gets a matchup against Trevor Cahill tonight. While Cahill has looked great against right-handed batters at home, he’s allowing righties to hit for a .292 average with a .536 slugging percentage and a .394 wOBA on the road. Garver is only hitting eighth in the Twins lineup, but he has been playing well enough to be used in all leagues.
Isaac Galloway
Galloway has found success over his last 10 games, recording a .333 average with a .611 slugging percentage and a 1.066 OPS over that span. He has also dominated left-handed pitching early in his career. He currently owns a 1.143 slugging percentage and a .571 ISO against lefties through limited games.
I have already outlined Sean Newcomb above, so I will not do that again. Galloway is hitting seventh in the Marlins lineup, and he makes an extremely high upside option. He has been playing well enough to be considered in all leagues for his current price tag, but he’s best suited for tournaments.
By: Justin Bales (Twitter)
