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Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack
Atlanta Braves
The Atlanta Braves have found plenty of offensive success throughout the 2019 season, ranking sixth in the MLB in runs scored, home runs, team batting average, and OPS through 128 games. Atlanta has found more success at home this season, where they are hitting for a .269 average with a .482 slugging percentage and a .830 OPS through 65 games. They are averaging 5.4 runs and 3.7 extra-base hits per game in those contests, as well. The Braves are -264 favorites in a game set at s9.5 runs, giving them the highest implied run total on the slate at 6.0 runs.
Atlanta gets an elite matchup against Sandy Alcantara, who has struggled through 24 starts this season. In those starts, he has posted a 4-11 record with a 4.35 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP. He’s due for quite a bit of regression, though, as he also owns a 5.64 xFIP and a 5.72 SIERA this season. Alcantara has given up a 37.5% fly ball rate, while holding his opponents to a 10.5% HR/FB rate in 2019. He also enters this game with 35.5% hard hit and 19.6% soft hit rates this season. He brings 16.4% strikeout and 10.9% swinging strike rates into this game, as well. Alcantara has struggled against both left- and right-handed batters. He has allowed right-handed batters to hit for a .254 average with a .414 slugging percentage and a .324 wOBA, while lefties have posted a .244/.416/.321 line against him in 2019. He has also given up a .245/.415/.333 line to his opponents on the road. Atlanta is surprisingly reasonably priced on this slate, making it relatively easy to get a Braves stack in cash games on this slate.
Important Odds: Vegas Stack
Houston Astros
The Houston Astros make up the “Vegas Stack” once again tonight. They rank fifth in the MLB in runs scored, fourth in home runs, and second in team batting average and OPS through 128 games this season. The Astros have found a bit more success at home, where they boast a .277 average with a .489 slugging percentage and a .843 OPS through 61 games. They are also averaging 5.5 runs and 3.6 extra-base hits per game in those contests. Houston is a -490 favorite in a game set at 8 runs, and they feature one of the highest implied run totals on the slate at 5.7 runs.
The Astros get a great matchup against Jordan Zimmermann, who has looked awful this season. He owns a 1-8 record with a 6.66 ERA and a 1.51 WHIP through 16 starts in 2019. He has also struggled with a 5.17 xFIP and a 5.10 SIERA in those starts. Zimmermann has given up a 37% fly ball rates this season, while holding his opponents to an 11.6% HR/FB rate. He has also allowed his opponents to post a 41.1% hard hit rate against him to go along with a 13.3% soft hit rate. He enters this game with 16.5% strikeout and 8.7% swinging strike rates, as well. Zimmermann has been at his worst against left-handed batters, allowing them to hit for a .322 average with a .526 slugging percentage and a .386 wOBA. He has given up a .284/.469/.319 line to right-handed batters this season, as well. Zimmermann has also been worse at home, but he has allowed his opponents to post a .257/.427/.300 line on the road in 2019, as well.
Wildcard GPP: Low Owned Stack
Washington Nationals
The Washington Nationals have been the best offense in the MLB recently, and they have found plenty of success throughout the entire season. Through 126 games, they rank eighth in the MLB in runs scored, 15th in home runs, and seventh in team batting average and OPS. They have been better in Washington this season, but they still own a .251 average with a .417 slugging percentage and a .743 OPS through 64 road games. They are also averaging 5.1 runs and 3.1 extra-base hits per game away from home. The Nationals are currently -217 favorites in a game set at 8.5 runs, and they own an implied run total of 5.2 runs tonight.
Steven Brault will be taking the mound for the Pittsburgh Pirates tonight. He has seen mixed results through 18 games (12 starts), posting a 3-2 record with a 4.06 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP. He has also recorded a 5.11 xFIP and a 5.06 SIERA this season. Brault has allowed a 36.8% fly ball rate in 2019, while recording a 9.9% HR/FB rate. He also owns 36.9% hard hit and 18.2% soft hit rates this season. He brings 20.7% strikeout and 9.5% swinging strike rates into this game, as well. Brault has been at his worst against right-handed batters, allowing them to hit for a .274 average with a .426 slugging percentage and a .346 wOBA this season. He has held his opponents to a .210/.355/.294 line at home, but he’s due for major regression, as he also owns a 5.20 xFIP in Pittsburgh this season. The Nationals are likely to use a plethora of right-handed batters tonight, making them an elite stacking option.
Hidden Gem: Value Pitcher
Aaron Civale
Civale has only thrown in four starts this season, but he has performed well in those games. Overall, he owns a 1-2 record with a 1.50 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP. He is due for regression, though, as he also owns a 4.21 xFIP and a 4.30 SIERA in those games. Civale has allowed a 38.5% fly ball rate in 2019, although he has yet to allow a home run this season. He has also given up a 41.5% hard hit rate, while recording a 23.1% soft hit rate. Civale brings 23.7% strikeout and 8.6% swinging strike rates into this game. He’s a +117 underdog in a game set at 8.5 runs, giving his opponents an implied run total of 4.5 runs tonight.
Civale gets a matchup against the New York Mets, who rank third on the slate in strikeouts per at-bat. They also feature an average team wOBA on this slate. Civale has been surprisingly good against left-handed batters, holding them to a .111 average with a .194 slugging percentage and a .133 wOBA. He has also held his opponents to a .261/.348/.269 line on the road this season. Civale is cheap enough to be considered in all leagues on this slate.
Hidden Gem: Value Hitter
Robbie Grossman
Grossman has been playing well recently, posting a .314 average with a .457 slugging percentage and a .842 OPS over his last 10 games. He owns there extra-base hits (one home run) and four RBIs over that span, as well. Grossman also enters this game with 51% hard hit and 40% fly ball rates to go along with a 93 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days. He has flashed more power against right-handed pitching, as well, bringing a 0.03 ISO differential against righties into this game.
Grossman gets an interesting matchup against Masahiro Tanaka, who has posted a 5.25 xFIP on the road this season. He has also allowed left-handed batters to hit for a .277 average with .511 slugging percentage and a .346 wOBA. Tanaka has also given up a .280/.539/.358 line to his opponents on the road this season. Grossman is expected to hit second in the Oakland A’s lineup tonight, and he makes a solid option in all leagues.
Follow Justin Bales on Twitter (@BalesSJustin)
