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Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack
Boston Red Sox
The Boston Red Sox continue to feature one of the best offenses in the MLB. Through 127 games, they lead the league in team batting average, while also ranking third in the MLB in runs scored, eighth in home runs, and fourth in OPS. Boston has been significantly better at home, where they boast a .286 average with a .507 slugging percentage and a .862 OPS through 67 games. They are averaging 6.0 runs and 4.5 extra-base hits per game in those contests, as well. The Red Sox are -161 favorites in a game set at 12 runs, giving them the highest implied run total on the slate at 6.8 runs.
Boston gets an elite matchup against Drew Smyly, who has struggled through 18 games (14 starts) this season. In those games, he owns a 2-6 record with a 7.09 ERA and a 1.66 WHIP. He has also recorded a 5.62 xFIP and a 5.14 SIERA this season. Smyly enters this game with 46.3% fly ball and 22.5% HR/FB rates, as well. He has allowed his opponents to post a 47.3% hard hit rate against him, while he has recorded only a 12.9% soft hit rate. He brings 22.3% strikeout and 10.1% swinging strike rates into this game, as well. Smyly has been at his worst against left-handed batters, allowing them to hit for a .338 average with a .831 slugging percentage and a .487 wOBA. He has also given up a .264/.508/.362 line to right-handed batters in 2019. Furthermore, Smyly has struggled away from home, where his opponents possesses a .270/.569/.386 line against him this season. The Red Sox always feature an elite offense at home, and they should have no problems finding success in this particular matchup.
Important Odds: Vegas Stack
Houston Astros
The Houston Astros continue to make up the “Vegas Stack.” They currently lead the league in OPS, while also ranking fifth in the MLB in runs scored, fourth in home runs, second in team batting average through 127 games. The Astros have found more success at home this season, where they are hitting for a .279 average with a .491 slugging percentage and a .846 OPS through 60 games. They are also averaging 5.5 runs and 3.6 extra-base hits per game in those contests. They are currently a -510 favorite in a game set at 8.5 runs, and they feature an implied run total of 6.1 runs tonight.
The Astros get a plus matchup against Daniel Norris, who has seen plenty of ups and downs through 25 games (22 starts) this season. He owns a 3-10 record with a 4.82 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP in those games. He has also posted a 4.67 xFIP and a 4.70 SIERA in 2019. Norris has given up 36% fly ball and 16.7% HR/FB rates this season. He has also struggled with 38.9% hard hit and 13.7% soft hit rates. He enters this game with a 19.8% strikeout rate to go along with a 9.6% swinging strike rate. Norris has struggled more against right-handed batters this season, allowing them to post a .292 average with a .495 slugging percentage and a .349 wOBA. He has also given up a .258/.495/.340 line to left-handed batters, though. Furthermore, Norris has struggled away from home this season, where his opponents own a .285/.468/.339 line against him. Houston will likely feature some ownership tonight, and they make up the second “Chalk Stack” on this slate.
Wildcard GPP: Low Owned Stack
Washington Nationals
The Washington Nationals have featured the best offense in the MLB recently, and they have found success throughout the 2019 season, as well. They rank ninth in the league in runs scored and team batting average, 16th in home runs, and seventh in OPS through 125 games. The Nationals have been better in Washington, but they are still hitting for a .251 average with a .415 slugging percentage and a .740 OPS through 63 road games. They are averaging 5.0 runs and 3.0 extra-base hits per game away from home. The Nationals are -146 favorites in a game set at 9 runs, and they own an implied run total of 5.0 runs on this slate.
Joe Musgrove will be taking the mound for the Pittsburgh Pirates. He has seen mixed results in 2019, recording an 8-11 record with a 4.59 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP through 26 games (25 starts). He has also posted a 4.42 xFIP and a 4.39 SIERA this season. Musgrove has allowed his opponents to record a 35.6% fly ball rate against him, although he has held them to a 12.2% HR/FB rate. He has also given up a 37.6% hard hit rate to go along with a 17.8% soft hit rate in 2019. He brings 21.4% strikeout and 11.5% swinging strike rates into this game, as well. Musgrove has struggled significantly more against left-handed batters, allowing them to hit for a .280 average with a .496 slugging percentage and a .339 wOBA. He has also given up a .232/.404/.292 line to right-handed batters. Musgrove has been worse at home, as well, where his opponents are hitting for a .258/.512/.330 line against him this season. The Nationals are coming off of a bad game, but they have caught fire recently, and they come with elite upside on this slate.
Hidden Gem: Value Pitcher
Adrian Houser
Houser has quietly thrown well this season, posting a 5-5 record with a 3.76 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP through 27 games (10 starts). He has also thrown well with a 3.71 xFIP and a 3.91 SIERA. Houser has held his opponents to a 25.5% fly ball rate, while giving up a 20.8% HR/FB rate. He has also recorded a solid 35.5% hard hit rate to go along with a 20.4% soft hit rate in 2019. Houser boasts 24.7% strikeout and 10.4% swinging strike rates this season. He’s a -104 “favorite” in a game set at 8.5 runs, giving his opponents an implied run total of 4.3 runs tonight.
Houser gets a plus matchup against the St. Louis Cardinals, who strikeout around an average rate on this slate. They also rank third last on the slate in team wOBA. Houser has been significantly better against right-handed batters, holding them to a .212 average with a .321 slugging percentage and a .255 wOBA. He has been better at home this season, but Houser is cheap enough to be considered in all leagues tonight.
Hidden Gem: Value Hitter
Khris Davis
Davis has been ice cold recently, posting a .074 average with a .074 slugging percentage and a .268 OPS over his last 10 games. Over that span, he has failed to record any extra-base hits or RBIs. With that being said, Davis could be in line for a breakout, as he owns 55% hard hit and 50% fly ball rates to go along with a 95 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days. He also brings 0.051 wOBA and 0.073 ISO differentials against left-handed pitching into this game.
Davis gets a solid matchup against J.A. Happ, who enters this game with a 4.90 xFIP and a 4.85 SIERA through 24 starts. Happ has struggled against right-handed batters, as well, allowing them to hit for a .276 average with a .512 slugging percentage and a .347 wOBA. Davis is expected to hit sixth in the Oakland A’s lineup, and he makes a strong tournament option on this slate.
Follow Justin Bales on Twitter (@BalesSJustin)
