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Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack
Atlanta Braves
The Atlanta Braves have found plenty of offensive success in 2019, ranking sixth in the MLB in runs scored, team batting average and OPS, while also ranking seventh in home runs through 126 games. Atlanta has found significantly more success at home this season, where they boast a .271 average with a .482 slugging percentage and a .831 OPS through 63 games. They are averaging 5.4 runs and 3.7 extra-base hits per game in those contests, as well. The Braves are -257 favorites in a game set at 9.5 runs, giving them one of the higher implied run totals on the slate at 6.0 runs.
Atlanta gets an elite matchup against Elieser Hernandez tonight. He has struggled through 15 games (9 starts), posting a 2-5 record with a 5.40 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP. He has also recorded a 5.26 xFIP and a 4.53 SIERA in those games. Hernandez has given up 48.6% fly ball and 20.8% HR/FB rates this season, as well. He has allowed his opponents to record a 40.4% hard hit rate, while posting only a 17.2% soft hit rate in 2019. He brings 23.8% strikeout and 11.9% swinging strike rates into this game, as well. Hernandez has been at his worst against left-handed batters, allowing them to hit for a .286 average with a .659 slugging percentage and a .416 wOBA. He has given up a .212/.416/.300 line to right-handed batters, as well. Hernandez has also been worse on the road, where his opponents have posted a .268/.610/.397 line this season. Atlanta features a dominant option at home, and they should find plenty of success in this particular matchup.
Important Odds: Vegas Stack
Houston Astros
The Houston Astros continue to feature one of the best offenses in the MLB, ranking fifth in the league in runs scored, fourth in home runs, and second in team batting average and OPS through 126 games. The Astros have been more success at home, where they are hitting for a .279 average with a .489 slugging percentage and a .843 OPS through 59 games. They are also averaging 5.5 runs and 3.6 extra-base hits per game in those contests. Houston is currently a -262 favorite in a game set at 9 runs, and they feature one of the higher implied run totals on the slate at 5.7 runs tonight.
The Astros get an interesting matchup against Spencer Turnbull, who has thrown well through 22 starts this season. In those starts, he has posted a 3-11 record with a 3.75 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP. He’s due for regression, though, as he owns a 4.67 xFIP and a 4.70 SIERA this season. Turnbull has held his opponents to 33.1% fly ball and 9.3% HR/FB rates in 2019. He has given up a 38.8% hard hit rate, though, while recording a 14.4% soft hit rate in those games. He also enters this game with 21.8% strikeout and 10.1% swinging strike rates. Turnbull has been significantly worse against left-handed batters, allowing them to hit for a .283 average with a .443 slugging percentage and a .346 wOBA. He has held right-handed batters to a .214/.329/.271 line this season. He has also held his opponents to a .230/.340/.297 line on the road in 2019. With that being said, he is due for quite a bit of regression on the road, where his xFIP balloons to 5.12. The Astros feature an offense that can find success against anyone, and it’s likely that Turnbull hits that regression in Houston tonight.
Wildcard GPP: Low Owned Stack
Los Angeles Dodgers
The Los Angeles Dodgers are another great offense on this slate. They currently rank fourth in the MLB in runs scored, third in home runs, ninth in team batting average, and fifth in OPS through 126 games. They have found significant more success in Los Angeles, where they have recorded a .269 average with a .482 slugging percentage and a .826 OPS through 64 games. They are also averaging 5.4 runs and 3.5 extra-base hits per game at home this season. The Dodgers are -310 favorites in a game set at 8.5 runs tonight, and they own an implied run total of 5.6 runs.
Sean Reid-Foley will be taking the mound for the Toronto Blue Jays tonight. He has performed relatively well through eight games (six starts) in 2019, recording a 2-3 record with a 3.00 ERA and a 1.57 WHIP. With that being said, he owns a 6.18 xFIP and a 5.75 SIERA, meaning he’s due for massive regression. Reid-Foley has given up a 42.4% fly ball rate this season, although he has held his opponents to a 7.7% HR/FB rates. He has posted 43.5% hard hit and 15.2% soft hit rates this season, as well. He also possesses 18.7% strikeout and 10% swinging strike rates this season. Reid-Foley has struggled more against left-handed batters, allowing them to hit for a .263 average with a .456 slugging percentage and a .366 wOBA. He has held his opponents to a .233/.302/.321 line on the road this season, but he owns an 8.03 xFIP in those innings. Reid-Foley is another pitcher that could struggle with regression tonight.
Hidden Gem: Value Pitcher
Dallas Keuchel
Keuchel has seen mixed results through 11 starts this season, posting a 3-5 record with a 4.39 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP. He has also recorded a 3.95 xFIP and a 4.39 SIERA in those starts. Keuchel has held his opponents to a 19.2% fly ball rate, although he has given up a 28.9% HR/FB rate, as well. He has also posted 38.1% hard hit and 19.8% soft hit rates in 2019. Keuchel brings 18.9% strikeout and 8.7% swinging strike rates into this game, as well. He’s currently a -257 favorite in a game set at 9.5 runs, giving his opponents an implied run total of 3.6 runs.
Keuchel gets an elite matchup against the Miami Marlins, who rank third on the slate in strikeouts per at-bat. They also rank third last on this slate in team wOBA. Keuchel has found significant more success against left-handed batters, holding them to a .159 average with a .409 slugging percentage and a .255 wOBA. He has also held his opponents to a .183/.267/.224 line at home this season. Keuchel boasts a 3.12 xFIP in Atlanta, as well, and he’s an option that can be considered in all leagues tonight.
Hidden Gem: Value Hitter
Joc Pederson
Pederson is hitting .269 with a .308 slugging percentage and a .674 OPS over his last 10 games. He owns only one extra-base hit with two RBIs over that span. With that being said, Pederson could be in line for a breakout, as he owns 42% hard hit and 38% fly ball rates with a 92 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days. He also brings 0.098 wOBA and 0.179 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching into this game.
Pederson gets a great matchup against Sean Reid-Foley, who has already been outlined above. Pederson is expected to lead off for the Los Angeles Dodgers, and his price tag is far too cheap for his upside. He’s a player that can be considered in all leagues tonight.
Follow Justin Bales on Twitter (@BalesSJustin)
