Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack
Minnesota Twins
The Minnesota Twins have struggled at times this season, ranking 17th in the MLB in runs scored, 19th in team batting average, and 20th in OPS. They have been a better offense at home, though, where they are hitting .260 with a .437 slugging percentage and a .767 OPS. The Twins are also averaging 4.8 runs and 3.4 extra-base hits per game at home this season. Minnesota is a -159 favorite in a game set at 9.5 runs, and they feature the highest implied run total on the slate at 5.4 runs.
The Twins get a great matchup against Lucas Giolito tonight. He has struggled through 24 starts, posting an 8-9 record with a 6.15 ERA and 1.50 WHIP. He has also allowed a 1.4 HR/9, while recording a 6.2 K/9 through 131.2 innings. He has struggled against left-handed batters, allowing them to hit for a .273 average with a .476 slugging percentage and a .374 wOBA. Minnesota has performed well since the All Star Break, even though they traded two of their best offensive weapons. Still, the Twins get an elite matchup tonight, and they make an outstanding stacking option.
Important Odds: Vegas Stack
Milwaukee Brewers
The Milwaukee Brewers have also featured an up and down offense this season, ranking 18th in the MLB in runs scored, 16th in team batting average, and 17th in OPS. They have also found quite a bit of success at home, where they are hitting .243 with a .420 slugging percentage and a .738 OPS. They are averaging 4.5 runs and 2.9 extra-base hits per game in Milwaukee, as well. They are currently -210 favorites in a game set at 9 runs, and they feature an implied run total of 5.4 runs.
Milwaukee gets an elite matchup against Homer Bailey, who has been struggling over his last 10 starts. In those games, he owns a 1-7 record with a 7.77 ERA and a 1.90 WHIP. He has also allowed a 2.1 HR/9, while posting a 6.7 K/9 over his last 51 innings. He has struggled against everyone this season. He’s allowing right-handed batters to hit for a .312 average with a .530 slugging percentage and a .375 wOBA, while allowing lefties to hit for a .291/.540/.371 line through 16 starts. The Brewers could feature low ownership tonight because of their recent struggles, but they make up one of the best stacking options on the slate.
Wildcard GPP: Low Owned Stack
St. Louis Cardinals
The St. Louis Cardinals have found success throughout the season, ranking 13th in the MLB in runs scored, 12th in team batting average, and 16th in OPS. They have found more success on the road this season, as they feature a .254 average with a .433 slugging percentage and a .763 OPS away from home. St. Louis is also averaging 4.9 runs and 3.3 extra-base hits per game on the road. The Cardinals are sizeable underdogs in a game set at only 8 runs, featuring an implied run total of only 3.5 runs.
Alex Wood will draw the start for the Los Angeles Dodgers tonight. He has thrown well this season, posting a 7-6 record with a 3.51 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP through 23 starts. He has also recorded a 0.8 HR/9 with a 7.9 K/9 through 128.1 innings. He has allowed right-handed batters to hit for a .230 average with a .378 slugging percentage and a .291 wOBA this season. He has also allowed his opponents to hit for a .243/.397/.294 line at home this season. St. Louis has been playing extremely well, and this matchup will keep their ownership low tonight.
Bales’ Bombs: HR Predictor
Matt Davidson
Davidson has been playing well recently, hitting .290 with a .548 slugging percentage and an .882 OPS over his last 10 games. He owns a 62% fly ball rate with a 96 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days, as well. Davidson has been a better option against left-handed pitching, featuring 0.075 wOBA and 0.08 ISO differentials against lefties.
Teoscar Hernandez
Hernandez has been playing well recently, posting 47% hard-hit and 64% fly ball rates with a 92 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days. He also owns a .480 slugging percentage and a .232 ISO against right-handed pitching throughout his career. Furthermore, Hernandez has been a more powerful option at home this season.
Matt Chapman
Chapman has caught fire recently, hitting .325 with a .625 slugging percentage and a 1.003 OPS over his last 10 games. He has posted 51% hard-hit and 56% fly ball rates with a 96 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days. Chapman owns a .518 slugging percentage and a .248 ISO against right-handed pitching in 2018, as well.
Khris Davis
Davis has dominated right-handed pitching this season, recording a .594 slugging percentage and a .325 ISO against righties. He has also been on fire recently, hitting .289 with four home runs over his last 10 games. Davis has posted 47% hard-hit and 55% fly ball rates with a 95 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days.
Jedd Gyorko
Gyorko has looked solid recently, recording a .273 average with a .455 slugging percentage and an .839 OPS over his last 10 games. He has posted 32% hard-hit and 51% fly ball rates with a 93 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days, as well. Gyorko has also recorded a .558 slugging percentage with a .247 ISO against left-handed pitching this season.
Hidden Gem: Value Pitcher
Stephen Gonsalves
Gonsalves will be making his MLB debut tonight after dominating the minor leagues for seasons. In six seasons, he owns a 53-20 record with a 2.46 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP through 113 games (108 starts). He has also held his opponents to a 0.4 HR/9, while recording a 9.5 K/9 through 599 innings. Gonsalves is also a -159 favorite in a game set at 9.5 runs tonight, giving his opponents an implied run total of only 4.2 runs.
He gets a great matchup against the Chicago White Sox, who rank fourth on the slate in strikeouts per at-bat, while also ranking as a below average team on the slate in team wOBA. Gonsalves does not have MLB splits, but as a left-handed pitcher, he should be feared by left-handed batters. He’s entirely too cheap for his talent level, and he makes an outstanding option tonight.
Hidden Gems: Value Hitters
Joey Rickard
Rickard has found success over his last 10 games, posting a .333 average with a .611 slugging percentage and a .944 OPS over that span. He owns 47% hard-hit and fly ball rates with a 94 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days, as well. Rickard also owns 0.019 wOBA and 0.031 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching.
He gets a great matchup against Marco Estrada, who has been a reverse splits pitcher this season. He’s allowing right-handed batters to hit for a .274 average with a .532 slugging percentage and a .362 wOBA. Rickard is hitting eighth in the Orioles lineup, but he makes an outstanding tournament option tonight.
Yandy Diaz
Diaz has only played in 10 games this season, but he owns a .419 average with a .548 slugging percentage and a 1.003 wOBA. He has also posted a 53% hard-hit hit rate with a 92 mph exit velocity over his last five games.
Diaz gets a matchup against Rick Porcello, who is allowing right-handed batters to hit for a .247 average with a .374 slugging percentage and a .298 wOBA this season. Diaz has been hitting fourth in one of the best offenses in the MLB, as well. He’s a low risk, high upside option for a low price tag at the moment.
By: Justin Bales (Twitter)
