Pitchers
Lance Lynn- Spending all the way up on Lance Lynn doesn’t seem like something I would normally do, but he is in the best spot on this slate against the Detroit Tigers. Over the last 30 days, Lynn has been in great form pitching to a 3.34 SIERA with 30% strikeouts. We know that this is a high-strikeout lineup with eight of nine projected batters owning 20% or higher strikeout rates — and they just lost their best hitter in Nick Castellanos. I’m not sure if spending up is a must tonight, but if you do, it should be on Lynn.
Wade Miley- The reason I say that spending up may not be a necessity is given the presence of Wade Miley, who is in a spectacular spot at home against the Seattle Mariners. This Mariners team is an equally high strikeout opponent to the Tigers, as they own a 26.1% strikeout rate as a team over the last month, just 0.1% behind Detroit. Being at home is a big factor for Miley, who sports a 3.66 xFIP with 24% striekouts at home compared to 4.89/18% marks on the road. He doesn’t come at huge discount, but I think that the matchup is deserving of this price tag and I have Miley as playable in all formats tonight.
Dustin May- Happy Dustin May day! One of the best pitching prospects in baseball is set to make his debut for the Dodgers tonight against a strikeout-prone Padres lineup. He has flashed strikeout upside in the minors with strong control, and this is one of the top matchups for a righty to make his debut in, with the Padres striking out 26% of the time this season. You never truly know what a guy will do in his first big league start, but he’s cheap enough — especially on FanDuel — that I will take the risk and roster him in cash games on Friday night.
Building Blocks
Aaron Judge- For some reason that we will never know, Aaron Judge sits at $3,900 on DraftKings tonight — which is sure to make him one of the highest-owned players on the slate. This is a classic “don’t over-think it” spot as Judge owns a huge .539 xwOBA with a .224 ISO against left-handed pitching this season. His opponent, Eduardo Rodriguez, has been good against right-handed batters this season, but a player of Judge’s caliber should never be this cheap, regardless of matchup.
JD Martinez- Sticking in the same game, I can see getting some nice ownership on JD Martinez tonight in a matchup with James Paxton, someone people don’t typically target in DFS. Martinez has a “down” first half in terms of power, but he’s still been his normal self this season against left-handed pitching with a monster .500 ISO! Paxton throws fast balls over 65% of the time to right-handed batters, obviously a pitch that Martinez excels against and he is my home run pick for tonight’s slate.
Alex Bregman- Given that Judge is so cheap on DraftKings, he takes the title of “value play” for this slate and that allows me to hopefully spend up on Alex Bregman at third base or shortstop. Bregman is having another monster season for the Astros, and he matches up with a very beatable pitcher in Yusei Kikuchi tonight. Kikuchi has allowed 18 homers to right-handed batters this season, which matches up well with Bregman’s .333 ISO. He’s one of my top plays on this slate, and seems under-priced in the mid-$4K tier.
Written by Ben Hossler (Follow @BenHossler on Twitter)
