Pitcher
Justin’s Pick: Jason Vargas
There are a multitude of interesting pitching options tonight, and I’m not sure you have to spend down with some of the available bats. With that being said, Vargas is likely the cheapest I’m willing to go. He has thrown well through 19 games (18 starts), posting a 6-5 record with a 4.01 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP. He’s due for regression, as he owns a 5.22 xFIP and a 5.08 SIERA, but he has consistently avoided that regression in 2019. Instead, he has given up a 42.9% fly ball rate, while holding his opponents to a 12% HR/FB rate. He has also posted 38.4% hard hit and 20.4% soft hit rates in 2019. Vargas brings 20.3% strikeout and 9.5% swinging strike rates into this game, as well. He gets an elite matchup against the Chicago White Sox, who lead the slate in strikeouts per at-bat, while also ranking in the bottom-five of the slate in team wOBA. Vargas is a -180 favorite in a game set at 9.5 runs, and he’s expected to get more run support on a nightly basis from the Philadelphia Phillies than he got from the New York Mets. Vargas can be considered in all leagues tonight.
Jason’s Reaction: Vargas is a top option in all leagues. Great recommendation.
Jason’s Pick: Dustin May
The Los Angeles Dodgers get a good matchup tonight against the San Diego Padres, and Dustin May should be able to find some success, at least from a fantasy perspective. He has one of the higher strikeout predictions on the slate, and as a -160 betting favorite in a game set at only 9 total runs, he is expected to hold the Padres to just 4. Tonight will be May’s first major league start, as Ross Stripling is still out with a bicep injury. He has an incredible 2.30 ERA at the Triple-A level, and he is ready to show off in the majors. As far as statistics are concerned, this recommendation is basically a guess. However, his historical record in the minors, as well as his strikeout to walk ratio, makes May an interesting option in tournaments at the least.
Justin’s Reaction: May is one of my favorite options on this slate.
Infielder
Justin’s Pick: Scooter Gennett
DraftKings must have forgotten that Scooter Gennett was traded to the San Francisco Giants, and will be playing in Coors Field tonight. He comes with an absurdly low price tag for that situation, and he has been playing well recently. Over his last 10 games, he owns a .286 average with a .343 slugging percentage and a .621 OPS. He has posted two extra-base hits with three RBIs over that span, as well. Furthermore, Gennett owns 40% hard hit and 33% fly ball rates with a 95 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days. He gets a plus matchup against Peter Lambert, and he brings 0.033 wOBA and 0.082 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching into this game. Gennett is expected to hit fourth in the Giants lineup, and he’s arguably the easiest play on this slate.
Jason’s Reaction: Call it what it is: Gennett is a must-play tonight.
Jason’s Pick: Josh Donaldson
Alex Wood just recently returned to the mound after struggling through back issues for the entirety of the 2019 campaign. He allowed two earned runs in a little under five innings pitched, and if he would have pitched a third of an inning more, he would have picked up the win. Tonight, he gets a tough matchup against the Atlanta Braves in Atlanta. Wood is a left-handed pitcher, and Josh Donaldson has a decent 0.022 ISO differential against left-handed pitching. He is hitting 0.065 HR/AB, and over the last 15 days, he has an average exit velocity on batted balls of 98 MPH, a fly ball rate over 45%, and a hard hit rate over 50%. Donaldson is a serious home run threat in a game that is set just under 10 total runs via Vegas. The Braves are going to score, and Donaldson, who is hitting fourth tonight, should be a large part of the reason why.
Justin’s Reaction: Donaldson makes an outstanding option in all leagues on this slate.
Outfielder
Justin’s Pick: Aaron Judge
Aaron Judge is another one of the easiest plays on this slate, as he’s currently priced under $4.0K on DraftKings. He’s only hitting .214 with a .286 slugging percentage and a .584 OPS over his last 10 games. Over that span, he has posted three extra-base hits and two RBIs. Still, Judge boasts a 63% hard hit rate with a 95 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days, and he has simply gotten unlucky. He also gets a plus matchup against Eduardo Rodriguez in New York, and Judge brings 0.087 wOBA and 0.079 ISO differentials against left-handed pitching into this game. He’s hitting second in the New York Yankees’ lineup, and he should be the first batter inserted into all of your lineups tonight.
Jason’s Reaction: Lock and load, baby.
Jason’s Pick: Ronald Acuna
The Atlanta Braves are worth stacking tonight against the Cincinnati Reds and Alex Wood. Ronald Acuna has great 0.102 ISO And 0.090 wOBA differentials against left-handed pitching, and he should find plenty of success in the leadoff position. Over the last 15 days, he has an average exit velocity on batted balls of 94 MPH, a fly ball rate over 30%, and a hard hit rate over 50%. In his last 10 games, Acuna is hitting over .250 with 2 home runs and 9 RBIs. He has 5 walks and 4 stolen bases, as well, posting just under 12 fantasy points per game on average. With both home run and stolen base upside, his high price tag on DraftKings is well worth it in tournaments.
Justin’s Reaction: I agree here. Max Kepler is the same price as Acuna, as well, and both make outstanding options (Kepler in cash, Acuna in GPPs).
