What’s up, Karma Nation!? I have some great news for you! If you’re thinking about joining the Karma Nation, use Promo Code “TOUCHDOWN” to get 20% of ANY package for the lifetime of that subscription! Click here for our packages.
Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack
San Francisco Giants
The San Francisco Giants have struggled offensively in 2019, ranking 26th in the MLB in runs scored, 27th in home runs, and 28th in team batting average and OPS through 109 games. San Francisco has been better on the road, where they boast a .247 average with a .431 slugging percentage and a .745 OPS through 56 games. They are averaging 5.3 runs and 3.6 extra-base hits pre game in those contests, as well. The Giants are +123 underdogs in a game set at 13.5 runs, giving them one of the higher implied run totals on this slate at 6.4 runs.
San Francisco gets an elite matchup against Peter Lambert, who has posted a 2-2 record with a 5.67 ERA and a 1.46 WHIP through nine starts in 2019. He owns a 4.21 xFIP and a 4.52 SIERA, though. Still, Lambert has struggled with 27.3% fly ball and 23.8% HR/FB rates. He has given up a 39.2% hard hit rate to go along with a 14.6% soft hit rate this season, as well. He also brings 17.2% strikeout and 7.4% swinging strike rates into this game. Lambert has been at his worst against left-handed batters, allowing them to hit for a .333 average with a .643 slugging percentage and a .414 wOBA. He has also given up a .286/.495/.340 line to right-handed batters in 2019. He has allowed his opponents to hit for a .323/.657/.415 line at home, as well. His struggled in Colorado are the biggest concern, though, as he has posted a 5.25 xFIP with 31.4% fly ball and 29.6% HR/FB rates at home. The Giants are surprisingly cheap on DraftKings tonight, and they are likely to be the highest owned stack on this slate.
Important Odds: Vegas Stack
Colorado Rockies
The Colorado Rockies have featured a high upside offense through 109 games this season. They currently rank sixth in the MLB in runs scored and team batting average, 23rd in home runs, and seventh in OPS. The Rockies possess an elite offense at home, where they are hitting for a .304 average with a .520 slugging percentage and a .886 OPS through 53 games. They are also averaging 6.5 runs and 4.3 extra-base hits per game in those contests. Colorado is a -133 favorite in a game set at 13.5 runs tonight, and they feature the highest implied run total on the slate at 7.3 runs.
The Rockies get a great matchup against Shaun Anderson, who has struggled through 14 starts this season. In those starts, he owns a 3-3 record with a 5.06 ERA and a 1.49 WHIP. He has also posted a 4.66 xFIP and a 5.16 SIERA this season. Anderson has held his opponents to a 27.8% fly ball rate, although he has given up a 15.2% HR/FB rate. He has allowed his opponents to post a 41.9% hard hit rate against him, while recording an 18.1% soft hit rate. He also enters this game with 16.1% strikeout and 8.6% swinging strike rates. Anderson has struggled against everyone in 2019. He has allowed left-handed batters to hit for a .281 average with a .504 slugging percentage and a .354 wOBA, while righties boast a .292/.429/.331 line against him. He has also been at his worst on the road, where he has given up a .306/.518/.371 line in 2019. The Rockies are going to feature quite a bit of ownership, as they always do in Colorado. They feature one of the top offenses on this slate, but San Francisco makes the “Chalk Stack” because of their price tags.
Wildcard GPP: Low Owned Stack
Texas Rangers
The Texas Rangers have found plenty of offensive success this season. They rank seventh in the MLB in runs scored, 14th in home runs, and 13th in team batting average and OPS through 108 games. They have found significantly more success in Texas, where they have posted a .261 average with a .469 slugging percentage and a .801 OPS through 54 games. They are averaging 5.6 runs and 3.7 extra-base hits per game at home, as well. The Rangers are currently -249 favorites in a game set at 10 runs, and they own an implied run total of 6.3 runs tonight.
Tyler Alexander will be taking the mound for the Detroit Tigers tonight. He has seen mixed results through three starts, posting an 0-1 record with a 3.86 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP. He also owns a 4.34 xFIP and a 4.20 SIERA in those starts. Alexander has given up a 38.8% fly ball rate in 2019, while holding his opponents to a 10.5% HR/FB rate. He has also allowed them to post a 34.7% hard hit rate, while recording only a 2% soft hit rate. He brings 21.2% strikeout and 8.7% swinging strike rates into this game, as well. The sample size is limited, but Alexander is currently allowing left-handed batters to hit for a .313 average with a .313 slugging percentage and a .298 wOBA. He has also given up a .234/.447/.295 line to right-handed batters this season. Alexander has been at his worst on the road, where his opponents own a .325/.550/.378 wOBA against him in 2019. These numbers need to be taken with a grain of salt, but this is a tough matchup for a young pitcher, and I expect Texas to find plenty of success tonight.
Hidden Gem: Value Pitcher
Dustin May
May will be making his MLB debut at only 21 years old tonight. He is an elite prospect, who owns a 3-0 record with a 2.30 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP through five Triple-A starts this season. He owns a 21.1% strikeout rate in those games, as well, but there’s reasons to believe that will increase throughout his career [and potentially this season]. May has kept his opponents fly ball rates low, and he has allowed only 22 home runs through 403.2 career innings. He’s currently a -153 favorite in a game set at 8.5 runs, giving his opponents an implied run total of only 3.8 runs tonight.
May gets a great matchup against the San Diego Padres tonight. The Padres currently rank fourth on the slate in strikeouts per at-bat, while also ranking in the bottom-seven in team wOBA. As a right-handed pitcher, it can be expected that May will find more success against right-handed batters in the MLB. He can be considered in all leagues tonight, especially on FanDuel, where he comes with an absurdly low price tag.
Hidden Gems: Value Hitters
Scooter Gennett
Gennett and Aaron Judge are the two obvious salary relief options, and I’m going with the former here. He’s hitting .286 with a .343 slugging percentage and a .621 OPS over his last 10 games. He owns two extra-base hits with three RBIs over that span, as well. Gennett also boasts 40% hard hit and 33% fly ball rates with a 95 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days. He brings 0.033 wOBA and 0.082 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching into this game, as well.
Gennett gets a matchup against Peter Lambert, who has already been outlined above. He’s expected to hit fourth in the San Francisco Giants lineup tonight. Gennett could be one of the highest owned players on this slate, and it’s nearly impossible to avoid him in cash games tonight.
Follow Justin Bales on Twitter (@BalesSJustin)
