MLB DFS (8/18/18) – Bobby’s Batter Up

•  This PREMIUM article features top offensive batters per position
• This includes value plays, upside plays, and contrarian plays
• Strategic game theory on why we are selecting these batters
• Advice on the best “Game Stacks” of the day
• The same players in these articles are the same players you can find in the core of our lineups!

Top Stacks – One of the most important concepts to understand in DFS MLB.  Watch our daily YouTube live podcast for more information on this understanding/mindset.  Keep in mind it is ok to stack 4 guys or 3 from the same team.  This mathematically increases your chances of “cashing” in tournaments.  It isn’t as necessary to stack in cash games (double ups/heads up).  Below is our rankings starting from the best at number 1.

1. 1. Giants (-150) –  The Giants are in a prime spot here in the Great American “Small” Park against the Dark Knight, Matt Harvey.  People think Harvey has turned his career around to what he used to be but I hate to break it to those Harvey truthers, he is no longer good.  Over 111 IP this season, Harvey has an xFIP of 4.58 and a SIERA of 4.47.  Not close to the numbers you would expect of the former 7th overall pick if he was indeed “back”.  His aHC% is at 38% (nearing that 40% mark I love to target) and although his velocity has increased over last year (.2 MPH) it is still 2.5 MPH off his career best which is a substantial difference.  The Giants are not the best team by any means in terms of hitter’s but they do bat well against RHP with 7 batters posting a wRC+ over 100.  The elite play here is Brandon Belt who leads the team in wRC+ (149) and leads with an impressive ISO of .239.  Follow Belt up with Alen Hanson who is 2nd on the team in wRC+ and ISO (127/.224 respectively).  To round out the stack surround the hitters with Andrew McCutchen, Joe Panik, Brandon Crawford, and Buster Posey (Posey is the worst play of the stack and fading him in a 5-man really would differentiate yourself from the field of Giants stacks.

1. 1. 1. 1. 1. Favorite One-Off: Joe Panik
            2. Best Bet for a home run: Brandon Belt
   2. Cardinals (-140) – Happy Wade Miley day! Wade Miley is someone I consistently target in MLB DFS as his numbers have been ridiculously bad this season.  His xFIP is worse than Harvey’s at 4.82 and his SIERA is the worst part where it is the worst of his career at 5.41.  His aHC% is above 45% which is something that really catches my eye and one that I want to target.  I truly don’t understand the 4.3 run implied total for the Cardinals (I assume Brewer’s bullpen strength) because Miley is going to get obliterated and I believe there is a lot of value in the -140 line the Cardinals are at right now.  Start off with Jed Gyroko who is consistently under-owned and has a team-best 168 wRC+ against lefties which he follows up with an impressive .257 ISO (second on the team only to Matt Carpenter).  Harrison Bader is a legit stud, although he hits towards the bottom of the order, he should mash again tonight due to his 158 wRC+/.229 ISO/.406 wOBA line.  Follow him up with Matt Carpenter (it’s fine if you can’t fit him at 5.2k), Marcell Ozuna, Jose Martinez, and Yadier Molina.
      1. 1. 1. Favorite One-Off: Jedd Gyroko
            2. Best Bet for a home-run: Matt Carpenter

 

 

 

Written By: @DF_Advantage 

DISCLAIMER: This report has been prepared and issued by DFS Karma LLC for publication globally. All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however, we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report. DFS Karma LLC is not responsible for any losses sustained. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department at DFS Karma LLC at the time of publication.