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Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack
Colorado Rockies
The Colorado Rockies will continue to make up the “Chalk Stack” tonight. They have found plenty of offensive success in 2019, ranking seventh in the MLB in runs scored and OPS, 21st in home runs, and fifth in team batting average through 122 games. Colorado has been elite at home, where they boast a .305 average with a .524 slugging percentage and a .890 OPS through 60 games.They are averaging 6.4 runs and 4.3 extra-base hits per game in those contests, as well. The Rockies are -261 favorites in a game set at 12 runs, giving them the highest implied run total on this slate at 7.6 runs.
Colorado gets the best matchup on the slate against Hector Noesi. He has struggled through only two starts this season, posting an 0-2 record with an 8.18 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP. He has also recorded a 5.57 xFIP and a 5.29 SIERA in those starts. Noesi has given up 51.7% fly ball and 26.7% HR/FB rates in 2019. He has also allowed his opponents to post a 37.9% hard hit rate, while recording only a 13.8% soft hit rate this season. He brings 23.9% strikeout and 14.3% swinging strike rates into this game, as well. Throughout his career, Noesi has been a reverse splits pitcher, allowing right-handed batters to hit for a .293 average with a .484 slugging percentage and a .364 wOBA. He has also given up a .268/.464/.343 line to left-handed batters this season. Noesi has struggled on the road, as well, where his opponents have posted a .291/.482/.361 line against him throughout his career. The Rockies are far and away the best “Chalk Stack” on this slate.
Important Odds: Vegas Stack
Minnesota Twins
The Minnesota Twins have featured one of the best offenses in the MLB this season, leading the league in home runs through 122 games. They also rank third in the MLB in runs scored, fourth in team batting average, and second in OPS in those games. The Twins have also found plenty of success on the road, where they are hitting for a .273 average with a .515 slugging percentage and a .850 OPS through 60 games. They are also averaging 6.1 runs and 4.3 extra-base hits per game in those contests. Minnesota is a -154 favorite in a game set at 11.5 runs, and they feature an elite implied run total of 6.5 runs on this slate tonight.
The Twins get a great matchup against Ariel Jurado, who has seen mixed results through 25 games (15 starts) this season. In those games, he owns a 6-8 record with a 5.31 ERA and a 1.45 WHIP. He has also posted a 4.81 xFIP and a 4.96 SIERA in those games. Jurado has allowed his opponents to record 31.1% fly ball and 15.3% HR/FB rates this season. He has also struggled with 45% hard hit and 15.7% soft hit rates in 2019. He enters this game with 17% strikeout and 7.3% swinging strike rates, as well. Jurado has been another reverse splits pitcher, allowing right-handed batters to hit for a .316 average with a .539 slugging percentage and a .370 wOBA. He has struggled against left-handed batters, as well, though, allowing them to post a .256/.432/.318 line against him this season. Jurado has been at his worst in Texas, as well, where his opponents own a .294/.503/.357 line in 2019. Minnesota could go a bit overlooked tonight because of their struggles last night, but they feature one of the highest upside offenses on the slate tonight.
Wildcard GPP: Low Owned Stack
Los Angeles Dodgers
The Los Angeles Dodgers are one of the better offenses in the MLB, ranking fourth in the league in runs scored, third in home runs, eighth in team batting average, and fifth in OPS through 124 games. They have been better in Los Angeles, but they have still posted a .252 average with a .470 slugging percentage and a .810 OPS through 60 road games. The Dodgers are averaging 5.7 runs and 3.9 extra-base hits per game away from home, as well. They are currently -150 favorites in a game set at 10 runs, and they own an implied run total of 5.6 runs.
Mike Foltynewicz will be taking the mound for the Atlanta Braves tonight. He has struggled with a 4-5 record, 6.24 ERA, and 1.43 WHIP through 13 starts in 2019. He brings a 5.05 xFIP and a 4.87 SIERA into this game. Foltynewicz has struggled with home runs, as well, allowing his opponents to record 42.3% fly ball and 20% HR/FB rates against him this season. He has also given up a 41.6% hard hit rate, while recording only an 18.1% soft hit rate in 2019. He enters this game with 20.6% strikeout and 10.9% swinging strike rates, as well. Foltynewicz has allowed right-handed batters to hit for a .292 average with a .558 slugging percentage and a .376 wOBA this season. He has also struggled against left-handed batters, allowing them to hit for a .256/.520/.340 line in 2019. Foltynewicz has also struggled at home, where he has given up a .270/.554/.361 line this season. The Dodgers come with tremendous upside, especially in this particular matchup.
Hidden Gem: Value Pitcher
Jose Suarez
Suarez has struggled through 11 stats in 2019, posting a 2-4 record with a 6.57 ERRA and a 1.64 WHIP. He has also struggled with a 5.46 xFIP and a 4.90 SIERA in those games. Suarez has struggled with 44.5% fly ball and 21.7% HR/FB rates. He also enters this game with 43% hard hit and 17.1% soft hit rates. Furthermore, Suarez brings 21% strikeout and 11.7% swinging strike rates into this game. He’s a -160 favorite in a game set at 10 runs tonight, giving his opponents an implied run total of 4.5 runs.
Suarez gets a great matchup against the Chicago White Sox, who rank sixth on the slate in strikeouts per at-bat. They also feature an average team wOBA on this slate. Suarez has been significantly better against left-handed batters, holding them to a .175 average with a .386 slugging percentage and a .270 wOBA. While he has struggled for the most part this season, Suarez is absurdly cheap, making him a solid tournament option on this slate.
Hidden Gem: Value Hitter
Brandon Belt
Belt has cooled off a bit recently, posting a .171 average with a .286 slugging percentage and a .561 OPS over his last 10 games. He owns two extra-base hits (one home run) and four RBIs in those games. With that being said, Belt could be in line for a breakout, as he owns 55% hard hit and 50% fly ball rates with a 96 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days. He also brings 0.045 wOBA and 0.029 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching.
Belt gets a great matchup against Taylor Clarke, who has struggled with a 5.57 xFIP and a 5.21 SIERA this season. He has given up a .246 average with a .515 slugging percentage and a .355 wOBA to left-handed batters this season. He’s due for major regression against lefties, though, as his xFIP balloons to 6.01 against them. Belt is only expected to hit seventh in the San Francisco Giants lineup, but he makes a solid option on this slate tonight.
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