MLB DFS (8/17/18) – Bobby’s Batter Up

•  This PREMIUM article features top offensive batters per position
• This includes value plays, upside plays, and contrarian plays
• Strategic game theory on why we are selecting these batters
• Advice on the best “Game Stacks” of the day
• The same players in these articles are the same players you can find in the core of our lineups!

Top Stacks – One of the most important concepts to understand in DFS MLB.  Watch our daily YouTube live podcast for more information on this understanding/mindset.  Keep in mind it is ok to stack 4 guys or 3 from the same team.  This mathematically increases your chances of “cashing” in tournaments.  It isn’t as necessary to stack in cash games (double ups/heads up).  Below is our rankings starting from the best at number 1.

1. 1. Twins (-171) –  The Twins find themselves in an exact same scenario as yesterday (not as good obviously) but for the most part things are staying the same.  The Twins are going to destroy in this matchup with Matt Boyd. Boyd hasn’t been that bad this season in terms of his past production but judging off his xFIP and SIERA he is not going to sustain much success longer.  According to these advanced analytics, he is not a good pitcher.  Matt Boyd owns an xFIP of 4.68 which is really bad in addition to a below average SIERA. With an aHC% of 37+% and an FB% above his career average (46.6% – HIGH) I really like the Twins chances to pop off again for a big game (probably not 15 runs – LOL – but a big game none the less). We also have to keep in the back of our mind that this is a great hitter’s park and while the Twins may only see 8 inning’s of AB’s they play much better at home.  This might sound ridiculous but Ehire Adrianza is the top play here when you place splits on home/away and handiness of pitcher.  He owns an INSANE 206 wRC+/.478 wOBA/1.127 OPS but is batting 9th.  Albeit this is over a smaller sample size of AB’s but if he continues this production he is worth a shot at low-ownership.  He’s 2.8k, fills the SS position, and has a ton of upside with the numbers he has going into the matchup he is.  Max Kepler is the next guy I’m a major fan of and the numbers back it up.  Although he is a lefty, Kepler has major success against his fellow southpaws posting a team-high 116 wRC+/.345 wOBA/.216 ISO line.  Kepler is another guy who’s ownership will be depressed due to his 7th hole spot in the order.  He’s only 3.5k and makes for another great GPP play to use in a Twins stack.  I also want to consider Johnny Field batting 8th in the order who absolutely tore apart AAA at two different teams and then has matched that tear on MLB left-handers.  Another guy in this stack who will be extremely low-owned.  Joe Mauer leading off is someone I want to round this stack off with who contains a ton of value given his numbers and price point.  First of all he is only 3.3k on Draftkings ( a continuing trend that will allow us to get a lot of the hitters we want).  Second his numbers (outside of power #’s) are pretty good against left-handed pitchers with a 100 wRC+/.321 wOBA/.716 OPS line.  Include all of these guys in your stack and feel free to mix and match with Tyler Austin as well who is a great play from the Twins today.  The big question – is Miguel Sano back?  If you’re buying into it get exposure to him as well.

1. 1. 1. 1. 1. Favorite One-Off: Ehire Adrianza
            2. Best Bet for a home run: Max Kepler
   2. Astros (-146) – Edwin Jackson has been decent since the All-Star break no doubt about it.  But he is not a good pitcher and is not having some return to 2010 form after eight years of bad pitching.  His numbers are still #bad. Over 54 IP’s throughout the season Edwin Jackson has managed an impressive 2.48 ERA.  Looking deeper however his xFIP is a 4.46 and his SIERA is a 4.58.  He is not good, I don’t care what his ERA is.  His LOB% is 80% for the season! That is so unsustainable it’s not even funny.  The time is coming for Edwin Jackson to get lit up for 7 runs and I think tonight could be that night.  The Astros as a team have eight hitter’s with a wRC+ over 100 and we should see at least 5 of those guys in the lineup tonight.  Start off with Alex Bregman who is pretty underpriced at 4.2k on Draftkings.  Bregman is going to lead the Astros in wRC+ at 143 in which he follows up with a .376 wOBA, 18.3 wRAA, and a .217 ISO.  Elite play.  Follow him up with Carlos Correa, who when healthy and “in-form” is a 5k+ player and he’s currently priced at 4.3k.  He comes with a 114 wRC+/.333 wOBA/.220 ISO line over 251 PAs.  Also consider George Springer, Evan Gattis, Marwin Gonzalez, and Preston Tucker if you’re looking to fill in the stack with other players but LOCK in Bregman and Correa.
      1. 1. 1. Favorite One-Off: Alex Bregman
            2. Best Bet for a home-run: Carlos Correa

 

 

 

Written By: @DF_Advantage 

DISCLAIMER: This report has been prepared and issued by DFS Karma LLC for publication globally. All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however, we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report. DFS Karma LLC is not responsible for any losses sustained. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department at DFS Karma LLC at the time of publication.