Pitcher
Justin’s Pick: Jon Gray
Jon Gray has performed well through 25 games (24 starts) in 2019, posting a 10-8 record with a 4.06 ERA and a 1.39 WHIP. He has also recorded a 3.97 xFIP and a 4.42 SIERA in those starts. Surprisingly, Gray has been slightly better at home in 2019. He brings 23.5% strikeout and 11.6% swinging strike rates into this game, as well. Gray gets an elite matchup against the Miami Marlins, who lead the slate in strikeouts per at-bat. They also rank in the bottom-five of the slate in team wOBA. Gray is currently a -196 favorite in a game set at 12 runs, giving his opponents an implied run total of 5.0. He’s likely to go a bit overlooked because of the game in Colorado, but he can be considered in all leagues on this slate.
Jason’s Reaction: I wouldn’t recommend Gray in cash games, but I love him as a contrarian tournament option.
Jason’s Pick: Vince Velasquez
The best pitching option on the board tonight is Charlie Morton, and in cash games, spend up for him. In tournaments, look toward Vince Velasquez, who has the highest upside of any pitcher on tonight’s slate due to his strikeout potential and low price tag. On the season, Velasquez has a 9.7 K/9, and the San Diego Padres strikeout 0.264 time per at-bat. The game tonight is set at 9 total runs via Vegas, and the Philadelphia Phillies are -124 betting favorites, giving the Padres an implied run total of 4.3. Over the last 15 days, Velasquez has struggled to keep batted balls on the ground, surrendering a fly ball rate over 50%, but his strike percentage is up. The Padres are not one of the most home-run-friendly offenses in the league, and Velasquez should be able to find success tonight.
Justin’s Reaction: I like Velasquez tonight, but I’ll never trust him in cash games.
Infielder
Justin’s Pick: Edwin Rios
Edwin Rios makes an interesting option for the Los Angeles Dodgers because of his low price tag. He has caught fire recently, posting a .438 average with a .938 slugging percentage and a 1.488 OPS over his last 10 games. He owns four extra-base hits (two home runs) and three RBI in those games. Furthermore, Rios enters this game with 71% hard hit and 42% fly ball rates to go along with a 100 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days. He gets a tough matchup against Mike Soroka, but he brings a 0.125 ISO differential against right-handed pitching into this game. Rios isn’t expected to hit high in the Dodgers’ lineup, but he makes a strong option for a low price tag.
Jason’s Reaction: Rios is definitely worth consideration tonight, and fantasy owners are continuously overlooking him. He should be owned at under five percent tonight.
Jason’s Pick: Brandon Belt
Over the last 15 days, Brandon Belt has been one of the unluckiest players in the MLB. Despite sporting an average exit velocity on batted balls of 96 MPH, a fly ball rate over 45%, and a hard hit rate over 50%, he has a batting average under .150 with 0 home runs over his last 10 games. That will change. Eventually the ball starts to find its way into the gaps, and Belt, based solely on advanced metrics, is underpriced tonight. He gets a good matchup against the right-handed Mike Leake, and he enters the game with a 0.023 ISO differential. Belt is expected to hit leadoff for the San Francisco Giants, and he has plenty of upside with both home run and stolen base potential. Belt can be rostered in all leagues.
Justin’s Reaction: I like Belt tonight. He’s a solid salary relief option.
Outfielder
Justin’s Pick: Juan Soto
Juan Soto continues to play at a high level, boasting a .314 average with a .714 slugging percentage and a 1.169 OPS over his last 10 games. He owns six extra-base hits (four home runs), eight RBIs, and three stolen bases over that span. Soto has also recorded 50% hard hit and 47% fly ball rates with a 95 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days. He has been at his best in Washington this season, where he possesses a .322/.585/1.001 line through 56 games. Soto gets a plus matchup against Adrian Houser, and he enters this game with 0.075 wOBA and 0.082 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching. He’s expected to hit fourth in the Washington Nationals’ lineup, and he’s safe enough to be considered in all leagues tonight.
Jason’s Reaction: Soto is expensive, but worth his high price tag.
Jason’s Pick: Mike Trout
Mike Trout has gone cold. In his last 10 games, he is hitting slightly over .300 with 4 home runs and 6 RBIs. Yes, that is cold for Mike Trout. He will look to turn that around tonight against the Chicago White Sox and Lucas Giolito. In his last game, Trout posted over 30 fantasy points with 4 hits, including a home run. He has both home run upside and stolen base potential, and he is still averaging over 13 fantasy points per game over his last 10 games. In the last 15 days, he has an average exit velocity on batted balls of 95 MPH, a fly ball rate just under 40%, and a hard hit rate of 50%. Whenever Trout is expected to be owned semi-low, take advantage in tournaments. He gets a pretty tough matchup tonight, and he has been cooling off, so he should be owned at under five percent. He is one of the few players in the league that have the upside to outscore all pitching options, so his $5.3K price tag actually isn’t that crazy.
Justin’s Reaction: I will never say no to Trout. He’s always an elite option.
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