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Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack
Minnesota Twins
The Minnesota Twins possess an elite offense in 2019, leading the league in home runs through 120 games. They also rank third in the MLB in runs scored, fourth in team batting average, and second in OPS. Minnesota has found more success on the road, where they are hitting for a .272 average with a .514 slugging percentage and a .848 OPS through 58 games. They are averaging 6.0 runs and 4.3 extra-base hits per game in those contests, as well. The Twins are -151 favorites in a game set at 12 runs, giving them the highest implied run total on the slate at 6.7 runs.
Minnesota gets a matchup against Pedro Payano, who has thrown surprisingly well this season. Through five games (there starts), he boasts a 1-1 record with a 3.86 ERA and a 1.71 WHIP. With that being said, he’s due for regression, as he also owns a 5.73 xFIP and a 5.97 SIERA this season. Payano has performed well with 32.7% fly ball and 11.1% HR/FB rates in 2019, but he could see regression on each of those numbers. He brings 35.7% hard hit and 19.6% soft hit rates into this game, as well. Furthermore, he enters this game with 16.9% strikeout and 10.5% swinging strikes. Payano has been significantly worse against right-handed batters in limited innings, allowing them to hit for a .371 average with a .571 slugging percentage and a .455 wOBA this season. He has also struggled more at home this season, where his opponents have posted a .353/.412/.382 line against him. As Payano gets more innings in the MLB, I’m expecting left-handed batters to find more success against him, and that could start tonight.
Wildcard GPP: Low Owned Stack
Chicago Cubs
The Chicago Cubs have seen mixed results this season, ranking 13th in the MLB in runs scored, 11th in home runs, 14th in team batting average, and eighth in OPS through 120 games. They have found more success in Chicago, but they still boast a .245 average with a .440 slugging percentage and a .761 OPS through 60 road games. They are also averaging 4.9 runs and 3.4 extra-base hits per game in those contests. The Cubs are currently -143 favorites in a game set at 9.5 runs, and they own one of the higher implied run totals on the slate at 5.2 runs.
Drew Smyly will be taking the mound for the Philadelphia Phillies tonight. He has struggled through 17 games (13 starts) this season. In those games, he has posted a 2-6 record with a 6.96 ERA and a 1.65 WHIP. He has also struggled with a 5.58 xFIP and a 5.17 SIERA. Smyly has also allowed his opponents to post 45.5% fly ball and 22.5% HR/FB rates in 2019. He has also given up a 46.2% hard hit rate this season, while recording only a 12.9% soft hit rate. He brings 22.2% strikeout and 10% swinging strike rates into this game, as well. Smyly has been at his worst against left-handed batters, allowing them to hit for a .323 average with a .769 slugging percentage and a .463 wOBA. He has also given up a .265/.509/.362 line to right-handed batters in 2019. Smyly has thrown surprisingly well for the Phillies, but his pitch mix hasn’t changed suggesting he could be due for a bit of regression. Chicago will also benefit from playing in one of the most hitter friendly stadiums in the MLB.
Hidden Gem: Value Pitcher
Reynaldo Lopez
Lopez has struggled a bit through 24 starts, recording a 7-9 record with a 5.16 ERA and a 1.48 WHIP. He has also posted a 5.38 xFIP and a 5.00 SIERA in those starts. He has given up a 44.1% fly ball rate, while holding his opponents to a 13% HR/FB rate this season. Lopez also enters this game with 35.4% hard hit and 20.3% soft hit rates. He brings 20.5% strikeout and 10.5% swinging strike rates into this game, as well. He’s a +145 underdog in a game set at 9 runs tonight, giving his opponents an implied run total of 5.1 runs.
Lopez gets a matchup against the Los Angeles Angels, who rank sixth on the slate in strikeouts per at-bat. They also feature a below average team wOBA on this slate. Lopez has been better against right-handed batters, holding them to a .260 average with a .460 slugging percentage and a .323 wOBA. This is a rough slate for salary relief pitchers, but Lopez can be considered in tournaments tonight.
Hidden Gem: Value Hitter
Joey Rickard
Rickard has seen mixed results recently, posting a .227 average with a .455 slugging percentage and a .825 OPS over his last 10 games. He owns three extra-base hits (one home run) and one RBI over that span. Rickard owns 28% hard hit and 42% fly ball rates with a 94 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days, although those are in limited games. He brings 0.074 wOBA and 0.087 ISO differentials against left-handed pitching into this game, as well.
Rickard gets a plus matchup against Alex Young, who enters this game with a 4.92 xFIP and a 4.85 SIERA. He has struggled more against right-handed batters, allowing them to hit for a .218 average with a .333 slugging percentage and a .265 wOBA. Rickard is expected to hit second in the San Francisco Giants lineup, and he makes a strong option for a low price tag on this slate.
Follow Justin Bales on Twitter (@BalesSJustin)
