Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack
Houston Astros
The Houston Astros are one of the league’s best offenses, and Aaron Brooks is scheduled to take the mound for the Baltimore Orioles tonight. The Astros currently have 192 total team home runs (third in AL) and a team batting average over .270 (second in AL). Even against the league’s best pitchers, the Astros are worth consideration from a fantasy perspective. Tonight, they’ll square off against one of the league’s worst pitchers.
Brooks is currently sporting a 5.45 ERA and allowing almost 2 home runs per 9 innings pitched. He is walking almost three batters per nine innings pitched, as well, and his xFIP suggests that his numbers are not going to improve. Vegas has this game set at 10.5 total runs, and the Astros are -230 betting favorites, giving them an implied run total of 6.6, the highest on tonight’s slate. In the last 15 days, Brooks is allowing an average exit velocity on batted balls of 94 MPH, a fly ball rate just under 40%, and a hard hit rate over 40%. The Astros are going to take advantage of the great matchup tonight, but this recommendation is obvious, and the fantasy community will be targeting this game. The Astros are a great chalk stack, but in tournaments, look toward a one-off batter toward the bottom of the batting order for leverage.
Wildcard GPP: Low Owned Stack
Cincinnati Reds
The Cincinnati Reds are a risky stack tonight, but well worth it in tournaments due to their upside at home. This is a team that is currently sporting 157 total team home runs despite a terrible team batting average of .247. Cincinnati is a very hitter-friendly ballpark, and it makes sense to target them in tournaments because of that. Tonight, however, the Chicago Cubs are scheduled to start one of the league’s better pitchers, so fantasy owners will likely be fading this game.
Kyle Hendricks rarely makes mistakes, but his 3.06 ERA is slightly inflated compared to his less promising 4.31 xFIP. His ground ball rate is currently about seven percent lower than his career average, as well, which suggests a minor negative regression. Most importantly, however, Hendricks is much better in Chicago, and tonight, he will have to play in Cincinnati. At home, his ERA sits at 1.98, while on the road, he struggles with a 4.32. His batting average allowed increases from under .200 to .275, and his slugging is just as bad. Vegas has this game set at 8.5 total runs, and the Cubs are -103 betting favorites, but the Reds have upside and Hendricks has concerns. This could be a sneaky way to finish atop the tournament ranks tonight.
Hidden Gem: Value Pitcher
Aaron Sanchez
Aaron Sanchez has struggled all season, but he looks much better in Houston. Rather than relying on his four-seam fastball, Sanchez is starting to utilize his curveball more frequently, and in his last start against the Seattle Mariners, he pitched six innings and allowed zero hits. He posted over 25 fantasy points in that game, and he has similar upside tonight against the Baltimore Orioles. The Orioles are not a team known for their offense, and Sanchez is definitely going to be provided some run support, so he should be able to pick up the win, as long as he pitches at least five innings. His ERA, which is currently 5.76, is slightly higher than his 5.07 xFIP, so he should see some minor positive regression in that regard, as well. Until his new curveball strategy proves to be disastrous, Sanchez will continue to make for a great, low-priced tournament flier.
Hidden Gems: Value Hitters
Joe Panik
Joe Panik is now a part of the New York Mets, and the New York Mets are dominating opposing pitchers. Tonight, Panik is expected to hit sixth for the hottest team in baseball, and he actually has positive splits against left-handed pitching. Patrick Corbin is expected to only allow 3.9 total runs, but Panik only needs a hit and an RBI to reach value at his low price tag. In the last 15 days, he has an average exit velocity on batted balls of 90 MPH, a fly ball rate over 40%, and a hard hit rate over 35%. Those advanced metrics should help him more in New York’s hitter-friendly stadium than they did in the San Francisco Giants’ pitcher-friendly stadium. Panik has been streaky most of his career, and a change of scenery could be exactly what he needs to pick up the pace again.
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