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Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack
Boston Red Sox
The Boston Red Sox will make up the “Chalk Stack” once again tonight. They have found tremendous offensive success in 2019, leading the league in runs scored and team batting average, while also ranking ninth in the MLB in home runs and second in OPS through 109 games. Boston has found more success at home, where they boast a .288 average with a .500 slugging percentage and a .858 OPS through 55 games. They are averaging 6.0 runs and 4.3 extra-base hits per game in those contests, as well. The Red Sox are -125 favorites in a game set at 10.5 runs tonight, giving them the highest implied run total on the slate at 5.6 runs.
Boston gets a matchup against Brendan McKay tonight. He has only started four games this season, posting a 1-1 record with a 3.72 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP. He owns a 3.86 xFIP and a 3.88 SIERA in those starts. McKay has struggled with a 39.7% fly ball rate, although he has held his opponents to an 8.7% HR/FB rate. He has also held his opponents to a 33.9% hard hit rate in 2019, while recording a 23.7% soft hit rate. He brings 23.1% strikeout and 12.6% swinging strike rates into this game, as well. McKay has struggled significantly more against right-handed batters, allowing them to hit for a .258 average with a .435 slugging percentage and a .287 wOBA. McKay has yet to face an elite offense on the road, as his only road start this season has come against the Baltimore Orioles. He’s also coming off of his worst game of the season, and he could struggle with an elite Boston offense. There are limited games on this slate, and I’m fine stacking the top offense in cash games.
Wildcard GPP: Low Owned Stack
Baltimore Orioles
The Baltimore Orioles have struggled offensively this season, ranking 26th in the MLB in runs scored, 24th in home runs and team batting average, and 25th in OPS through 107 games. They have been better in Baltimore, where they own a .249 average with a .431 slugging percentage and a .741 OPS through 51 games. They are also averaging 4.4 runs and 3.2 extra-base hits per game in those contests. They are +101 underdogs in a game set at 10.5 runs tonight, but they still own an implied run total of 5.2 runs.
Trent Thornton will be taking the mound for the Toronto Blue Jays tonight. He has struggled with a 3-7 record, 5.46 ERA, and 1.54 WHIP through 21 starts in 2019. He has posted a 4.94 xFIP and a 4.92 SIERA in those starts, as well. Thornton has given up 39.9% fly ball and 13.6% HR/FB rates in 2019. He has also allowed his opponents to post a 36.9% hard hit rate against him this season, while recording an 18.8% soft hit rate. He enters this game with 22.5% strikeout and 10.2% swinging strike rates. Thornton has struggled against both left- and right-handed batters this season. He has allowed lefties to hit for a .260 average with a .500 slugging percentage and a .348 wOBA, while righties have posted a .280/.420/.334 line against him in 2019. He has given up a .255/.411/.323 line on the road this season, as well, and Thornton is likely to struggle in one of the more hitter friendly stadiums in the MLB tonight.
Hidden Gem: Value Pitcher
Asher Wojciechowski
Wojciechowski has thrown in six games (five starts) this season, finding various levels of success. Overall, he owns a 2-3 record with a 3.60 ERA and a 0.93 WHIP. He has also posted a 4.31 xFIP and a 3.66 SIERA in those games. Wojciechowski has given up 54.2% fly ball and 12.8% HR/FB rates in 2019. He has also allowed 40.3% hard hit and 15.3% soft hit rates this season. Most importantly, Wojciechowski brings 31.1% strikeout and 16.3% swinging strike rates into this game. He’s a +101 underdog in a game set at 10.5 runs, giving his opponents an implied run total of 5.4 runs tonight.
Wojciechowski gets a matchup against the Toronto Blue Jays, who strikeout at a slightly above average rate on this slate, while also featuring an average team wOBA. Wojciechowski has been at his best against right-handed batters, holding them to a .136 average with a .271 slugging percentage and a .183 wOBA. He has also held his opponents to a .170/.362/.254 line at home this season. Wojciechowski is a player that can be considered in all leagues because of the size of this slate.
Hidden Gems: Value Hitters
Jace Peterson
Peterson has only played in six games this season, posting a .240 average with a .240 slugging percentage and a .509 OPS. He has yet to record an extra-base hits, but he owns three RBIs and three stolen bases in those games. Peterson also boasts 47% hard hit and 63% line drive rates with a 95 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days. He brings 0.148 wOBA and 0.059 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching into this game, as well.
Peterson gets a matchup against Trent Thornton, who has already been outlined above. He’s expected to hit sixth in the Baltimore Orioles lineup, which could cause him to go overlooked on this slate. Peterson makes a strong option in all leagues for a low price tag tonight.
Follow Justin Bales on Twitter (@BalesSJustin)
