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Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack
Houston Astros
The Houston Astros have dealt with a plethora of injuries this season, and they have seen plenty of offensive ups and downs. Through 88 games, they rank 13th in the MLB in runs scored, ninth in home runs, fifth in team batting average, and third in OPS. Surprisingly, Houston has been better at home, where they are hitting .271 with a .462 slugging percentage and a .810 OPS through 45 home games. They are averaging 5.0 runs and 3.3 extra-base hits per game in those contests, as well. The Astros are -223 favorites in a game set at 9 runs, giving them the highest implied run total on this slate at 5.5 runs.
Houston quietly gets a plus matchup against Andrew Heaney tonight. He has struggled through seven starts, posting a 1-2 record with a 5.40 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP. He has also posted a 4.82 xFIP and a 4.20 SIERA in those games. Heaney has struggled with home runs, allowing 53.3% fly ball and 18.4% HR/FB rates in 2019. He has also allowed his opponents to hit for a 50% hard hit rate to go along with a 12% soft hit rate. Heaney has performed well with 28.8% strikeout and 14.1% swinging strike rates, though. Surprisingly, he has been a reverse splits pitcher this season, allowing left-handed batters to hit for a .263 average with a .526 slugging percentage and a .350 wOBA. He has also given up a .204/.449/.319 line to right-handed batters. Heaney has held his opponents to a .196/.411/.297 line on the road this season, but Houston features one of the best offenses in the MLB against left-handed pitching. They come with tremendous upside because of Heaney’s fly ball struggles, making them the top stacking option on this slate.
Important Odds: Vegas Stack
Oakland A’s
The Oakland A’s have found plenty of offensive success this season, ranking 10th in the MLB in runs scored, sixth in home runs, 17th in team batting average, and 15th in OPS. The A’s have been at their best on the road, where they boast a .252 average with a .451 slugging percentage and a .774 OPS through 44 road games. They are also averaging 5.6 runs and 3.7 extra-base hits per game in those contests. Oakland is currently a -138 favorite in a game set at 9.5 runs tonight, and they feature one of the highest implied run totals on this slate at 5.2 runs.
The A’s get a plus matchup against Marco Gonzales, who has recorded a 9-7 record with a 4.39 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP through 19 starts this season. He has struggled with a 5.30 xFIP and a 5.14 SIERA this season, as well. Gonzales has held his opponents to an 8% HR/FB rate, although he has given up a 39.3% fly ball rate. He has allowed his opponents to post a 38% hard hit rate in 2019, while recording only a 14.7% soft hit rate. Gonzales has also struggled with 16.4% strikeout and 7.1% swinging strike rates. He has struggled against the majority of his opponents in 2019. He has allowed right-handed batters to hit for a .270 average with a .444 slugging percentage and a .324 wOBA, while lefties have posted a .306/.432/.326 line against him this season. Gonzales has also struggled at home, where he has given up a .303/.434/.328 line in 2019. Oakland comes with quite a bit of power against left-handed pitching, and they can be stacked in all leagues tonight.
Hidden Gem: Value Pitcher
Kenta Maeda
Maeda has found success this season, posting a 7-4 record with a 3.78 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP through 16 starts. He has also recorded a 4.41 xFIP and a 4.37 SIERA in those games. Maeda has allowed a 40.8% fly ball rate, while holding his opponents to a 12.6% HR/FB rate. He has held his opponents to a 30% hard hit rate to go along with a 24.1% soft hit rate in 2019. Maeda boasts 24.7% strikeout and 14% swinging strike rates, as well. He is currently a -160 favorite in a game set at 8.5 runs, giving his opponents an implied run total of 3.8 runs.
Maeda gets a great matchup against the San Diego Padres, who rank as an average team on this slate in strikeouts per at-bat, while also ranking fifth last in team wOBA. Maeda has been at his best against right-handed batters, holding them to a .145 average with a .270 slugging percentage and a .197 wOBA. He has also held his opponents to a .167/.295/.227 line at home this season. Maeda is cheap enough to be considered in all leagues on this slate.
Hidden Gems: Value Hitters
Khris Davis
Davis has been struggling recently, posting a .235 average with a .265 slugging percentage and a .580 OPS over his last 10 games. He only owns one extra-base hit with two RBIs over that span. With that being said, he could be in line for a breakout, as he owns a 48% hard hit rate with a 95 MPH exit velocity in those games. He also enters this game with 0.053 wOBA and 0.062 ISO differentials against left-handed pitching.
Davis gets a plus matchup against Marco Gonzales, who has already been outlined above. He’s expected to hit fourth in the Oakland A’s lineup, and he has been consistent even in his recent struggles. Davis makes a strong option in all leagues tonight.
Follow Justin Bales on Twitter (@BalesSJustin)
