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Pitcher
Justin’s Pick: Drew Pomeranz
Drew Pomeranz has struggled quite a bit this season, posting a 2-8 record with a 6.25 ERA and a 1.72 WHIP through 15 starts. With that being said, he’s due for positive regression, as he owns a 4.42 xFIP and a 4.42 SIERA. He has also posted elite numbers at home, where he owns a 3.70 xFIP. Pomeranz’s fly ball and HR/FB rates drop to 35.1% and 12.1%, respectively. He also owns a 29.2% hard hit rate in San Francisco, while also posting a 16.7% soft hit rate in those games. Furthermore, Pomeranz’s strikeout rate increases to 30.3% in San Francisco this season. He gets a plus matchup against the St. Louis Cardinals at home tonight. The Cardinals rank second on the slate in strikeouts per at-bat, while also ranking second last in team wOBA. Pomeranz is a +105 underdog in a game set at 8 runs, but he’s cheap enough to be considered in all leagues tonight.
Jason’s Reaction: I don’t think I’m going to recommend Pomeranz in cash games, even as a San Francisco Giants’ fan, but he makes for a great tournament option.
Jason’s Pick: Jacob deGrom
There is no other pitcher on the slate tonight with as much strikeout potential as Jacob deGrom, and it actually isn’t even that close. His strikeout prediction is on the north end of the eight and nine divide, and the only other pitching option over eight is Justin Verlander. There are only five pitchers north of seven. The Mets’ ace is also a -180 betting favorite to win tonight in a game set at 8.5 total runs, giving the Philadelphia Phillies an implied run total of 3.7, the third lowest on the slate. Yes, deGrom is expensive, but he is worth it tonight, and there are plenty of value options at other positions, making it rather easy to fit him into most lineups.
Justin’s Reaction: deGrom makes an elite option tonight. The only issue is that he has been worse at home, but he should still find plenty of success.
Infielder
Justin’s Pick: Justin Turner
Any time Justin Turner is less than $4K and gets a matchup against a weak left-handed pitcher, he can be locked into all leagues. He’s only hitting .226 with a .452 slugging percentage and a .785 OPS over his last 10 games. He owns three extra-base hits (two home runs) and four RBIs in those games. Turner has also posted 53% hard hit and 39% fly ball rates with a 94 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days. He has found significantly more power against left-handed pitching, as he enters this game with a 0.089 ISO differential against lefties. He’s expected to hit third in the Los Angeles Dodgers’ lineup, and he gets a plus matchup against Eric Lauer in Los Angeles. The Dodgers have been significantly better at home, meaning Turner could see plenty of opportunities for fantasy points tonight. He’s an elite option on this slate.
Jason’s Reaction: Last time Justin recommended Turner when he was struggling, he went on to hit something like .450 with 5 home runs over his next 10 games. I’m not saying the Justin-to-Justin connection is some sort of weird telepathic superpower booster, but I’m also not saying it isn’t. Lock in Turner.
Jason’s Pick: Tim Federowicz
Wait, who? Tim Federowicz, and put some ‘respek’ on it. He is expected to hit last for the Texas Rangers tonight, and as long as Isiah Kiner-Falefa is on the IL with a finger injury, he will serve as the primary backup catcher. In his last 10 games, Federowicz is hitting .217, but he has 2 home runs and 2 RBIs. He gets a good matchup tonight against the Minnesota Twins and Martin Perez. Hitting 0.053 HR/AB, Federowicz possesses power beyond his price tag. In the last 15 days, he has a fly ball rate of 37% and a hard hit rate of 50%. Most importantly, his average exit velocity on batted balls is 103 MPH. Anything over 96 MPH turns a fly out into an extra-base hit, and over 100 MPH is almost always a long ball. Federowicz, assuming he actually does start for the Rangers tonight, will go overlooked, and he has quite a bit of tournament upside.
Justin’s Reaction: He’s a decent option, but I like using the terrible Texas catchers at home more than on the road. I could see using him, but I’d probably just save a bit of money and go cheaper here with a punt.
Outfielder
Justin’s Pick: Max Kepler
Max Kepler is no longer a cheap plug-and-play, but he still makes sense tonight. He’s only hitting .205 over his last 10 games, but he owns a .409 slugging percentage and a .648 OPS over that span. He has posted five extra-base hits and two RBIs in those contests, as well. Kepler brings 39% hard hit and 41% fly ball rates with a 93 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days into this game. He gets a plus matchup against Adrian Sampson, and Kepler has posted 0.078 wOBA and 0.136 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching. The Minnesota Twins have been at their best at home, and Kepler is expected to lead off for them tonight. He’s a solid option in all leagues, although he may be best suited for tournaments on this slate.
Jason’s Reaction: Yes … so much yes.
Jason’s Pick: Alex Dickerson
Alex Dickerson can be rostered in all leagues tonight. Yes, he has less than 100 at-bats in 2019. That said, he has been great when given the opportunity, and it looks like he found himself a platoon situation. If he keeps up the power (8 extra-base hits in his last 10 games), Bruce Bochy is going to be forced to find a spot for him in the lineup permanently. Dickerson is expected to hit fifth tonight for the San Francisco Giants, and in his last 10 games, he is hitting over .300 with 2 home runs and 4 RBIs. His advanced metrics support his impressive slash line. In his last 11 games, he has an average batted ball distance of 235 feet, an average exit velocity on those batted balls of 95 MPH, a fly ball rate over 40%, and a hard hit rate just under 60%. Dickerson’s price tag will be over $4.0K by next game (probably), so take advantage of the value now.
Justin’s Reaction: Dickerson has been so good against right-handed pitching. I love him for his price tag tonight.
Be sure to follow Justin (@BalesSJustin) and Jason (@BalesTJason) on Twitter!
