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Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack
Boston Red Sox
The Boston Red Sox have found plenty of offensive success this season, ranking fourth in the MLB in runs scored, 11th in home runs, third in team batting average, and fifth in OPS through 87 games. Boston has been better at home, but they still own a .264 average with a .447 slugging percentage and a .786 OPS through 45 road games. They are averaging 5.5 runs and 3.4 extra-base hits per game in those contests, as well. The Red Sox are -225 favorites in a game set at 11 runs, giving them the highest implied run total on the slate at 6.7 runs.
Boston get an elite matchup against Gregory Soto tonight. He has struggled through five starts this season, posting an 0-2 record with an 8.83 ERA and a 1.96 WHIP. He has also posted a 6.33 xFIP and a 6.03 SIERA in those games. Soto has given up 39.5% fly ball and 16.1% HR/FB rates in those games. He has also allowed his opponents to post a 41.6% hard hit rate, while recording only a 16.9% soft hit rate. His strikeout rate also sits at only 14.4% to go along with a 7.9% swinging strike rate in 2019. Soto has been at his worst against right-handed batters, allowing them to hit for a .333 average with a .653 slugging percentage and a .424 wOBA. He has also given up a .245/.415/.329 line at home this season. The Red Sox are a team that features a few of dominant right-handed batters, and I’m not overly worried about the success of their lefties in this particular matchup. Soto has proven time and time against that he simply isn’t an MLB pitcher, and there’s no reason to believe he’ll be able to slow down Boston’s offense tonight.
Important Odds: Vegas Stack
Atlanta Braves
The Atlanta Braves continue to feature a strong offense, ranking fifth in the MLB in runs scored, sixth in home runs and OPS, and eighth in team batting average through 88 games. The Braves have been at their best at home, where they boast a .277 average with a .502 slugging percentage and a .856 OPS through 44 games. They are also averaging 6.0 runs and 3.9 extra-base hits per game in those contests. Atlanta is currently a -184 favorite in a game set at 10 runs, and they feature an implied run total of 5.9 runs tonight.
The Braves get a matchup against Jordan Yamamoto, who has looked great through four starts. In those starts, he owns a 3-0 record with a 2.35 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP. With that being said, he’s due for major regression, as he has also posted a 5.12 xFIP and a 4.96 SIERA. Yamamoto has yet to allow a home run this season, but he has given up a 49.1% fly ball rate, suggesting he will see major regression on his HR/FB rate. He has also allowed a 43.4% hard hit rate to go along with a 28.3% soft hit rate in 2019. Yamamoto has found success with 25.8% strikeout and 8.4% swinging strike rates this season, though. With a lack of starts and clear success, his numbers against both left- and right-handed batters are overly impressive. With that being said, he owns a 5.29 xFIP against lefties and a 5.03 xFIP against righties. In other words, Yamamoto is due for regression across the board, and Atlanta should find plenty of success at home tonight.
Wildcard GPP: Low Owned Stack
Los Angeles Dodgers
The Los Angeles Dodgers are another offense that has found tremendous success in 2019. Through 89 games, they rank sixth in the MLB in runs scored and team batting average, fourth in home runs, and second in OPS. They have been significantly better in Los Angeles, where they are hitting for a .280 average with a .507 slugging percentage and a .863 OPS this season. They are also averaging 5.6 runs and 3.7 extra-base hits per game in those 46 home games. Los Angeles is a -192 favorite in a game set at 8.5 runs tonight, and they own an implied run total of 5.0 runs.
Eric Lauer will be taking the mound for the San Diego Padres. He has struggled through 16 starts, posting a 5-7 record with a 4.22 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP. He has struggled with a 4.70 xFIP and a 4.80 SIERA this season. Lauer has held his opponents to 34.3% fly ball and 9.9% HR/FB rates in 2019. He has also allowed them to post a 42.4% hard hit rate against him, while recording only a 17.3% soft hit rate. He enters this game with 18.1% strikeout and 7% swinging strike rates, as well. Lauer has struggled against everyone this season. He has allowed right-handed batters to hit for a .265 average with a .416 slugging percentage and a .311 wOBA, while he has given up a .286/.377/.316 line to lefties. Lauer has also struggled with a .293/.464/.344 line on the road this season. He’ll be throwing in Los Angeles tonight, where they Dodgers have featured elite upside. Lauer has thrown surprisingly well recently, outside of a pair of starts in Colorado, but I don’t expect him to find that success against the Dodgers. They will likely go overlooked because of their Vegas total, though.
Hidden Gem: Value Pitcher
Drew Pomeranz
Pomeranz has struggled quite a bit this season, posting a 2-8 record with a 6.25 ERA and a 1.72 WHIP through 15 starts. He due for positive regression, though, as he also owns a 4.43 xFIP and a 4.43 SIERA this season. He has also been outstanding at home, where his xFIP drops to 3.70. Furthermore, Pomeranz owns 35.1% fly ball and 12.1% HR/FB rates in San Francisco. He also owns a 29.2% hard hit rate with a 16.7% soft hit rate through eight home games. Most importantly, his strikeout rate jumps to 30.3% in those games. He’s a -106 favorite in a game set at 8.5 runs tonight, giving his opponents an implied run total of 4.3 runs.
Pomeranz gets a matchup against the St. Louis Cardinals, who rank second on the slate in strikeouts per at-bat, while also ranking second last in team wOBA. Pomeranz has been at his best against left-handed batters, holding them to a .274 average with a .438 slugging percentage and a .332 wOBA. He has also held his opponents to a .271/.389/.322 line at home. Pomeranz is cheap enough tonight to be considered in cash games because of the matchup in San Francisco.
Hidden Gems: Value Hitters
Justin Turner
Turner is only hitting .212 with a .424 slugging percentage and a .740 OPS over his last 10 games. He owns three extra-base hits (two home runs) and four RBI over that span. Turner could be in line for a breakout, though, as he has posted 50% hard hit and 43% fly ball rates with a 93 MPH exit velocity over that span. He also enters this game with a 0.091 ISO differential against left-handed pitching.
Turner gets a matchup against Lauer, who has been outlined above. He’s expected to hit third in the Los Angeles Dodgers lineup, as well. Turner is far too good of a hitter to be this cheap against a weak left-handed pitcher. He’s an elite option in all leagues on this slate tonight.
Follow Justin Bales on Twitter (@BalesSJustin)
