Pitchers
Matt Boyd- We have pretty limited pitching options on either slate today, which leads us to Matt Boyd as the top overall option. There’s a reason that Boyd is one of the most coveted assets on the trade market this season, he owns a 3.33 SIERA with 31% strikeouts this season, the best marks in each category on this slate. The White Sox can be pesky against left-handed pitchers, but they have crept inside the top-ten in strikeout rate as a team, and there’s just nobody else in the realm of safety as Boyd on this slate. He is my top overall option on any slate for the entire day, and is a lock in cash games for me on Independence Day.
Reynaldo Lopez- Lopez is gifted the same matchup as on Tuesday, and I will simply copy my analysis as it remains the same today:
Lopez’s advanced metrics leave a lot to b desired, a 5.12 SIERA and 20% strikeouts don’t jump off the board whatsoever, but if you isolate the numbers to starts against the Tigers, his strikeout rate rises to 45%! Sure, that’s a really small sample size, but it might not be the wrong sample size given that the Tigers are first in the league in strikeout rate against right-handed pitching and their 73 wRC+ is last as well. Lopez is an extreme fly ball pitcher, and the Tigers second-to-last team ISO against right-handed pitching won’t play well here either. It’s not a stretch to think that Lopez is capable of big starts in matchups made for him, and tonight looks to be one of those nights.
At his price, Lopez is playable in all formats, and seeing as he was 50% owned on a massive Tuesday slate, he will be no secret today either.
Brandon Woodruff- If you’re looking for a pivot off of the chalky Boyd/Lopez, look no further than Brandon Woodruff against the Cincinnati Reds. Woodruff is similarly priced to both Luis Castillo and Jose Berrios — two guys who have much more name brand equity than him — but neither of them have really been better than him this season. Woodruff continues to fully breakout for the Brewers posting a 3.55 SIERA with 29% strikeouts and only 6% walks through the first half of 2019. The Reds are a much more beatable offense than the Brewers in my opinion, and Berrios strikeouts haven’t been high enough got me to consider him an upside option in DFS tournaments.
Building Blocks
DK Cash Game Core: Paul Goldschmidt, Yairo Munoz (If leading off), Kyle Schwarber, Christian Yelich (This is the 2PM Slate)
Value Options: All Cardinals (LOL), Kyle Schwarber, Jung-Ho Kang
HR Pick: Paul Goldschmidt (Yes, he’s been bad *by his standards* but the batted ball data is there over the last few weeks)
Note: In case you haven’t seen — MonkeyKnifeFight is offering up a cool $4,000 to anyone who can pick four homeruns today in their homerun derby prop contests. If you haven’t played before, you simply select three batters from one game — so in this case, yes, you need four bombs from three players, but with a minimum bet of only $2 per contest. I will be taking a few shots at this $4K today, and I’m listing my favorite four builds below. Let’s go (and count $4K together)!
MIL/CIN — Christian Yelich/Mike Moustakas/Yasmani Grandal OVER 0.5 HRs
LAD/SD — Joc Pederson/Cody Bellinger/Max Muncy OVER 0.5 HRs
CLE/KC — Francisco Lindor, Hunter Dozier, Jorge Soler OVER 0.5 HRs
STL/SEA — Paul Goldschmidt/Jose Martinez/Dan Vogelbach OVER 0.5 HRs
Written by Ben Hossler (Follow @BenHossler on Twitter)
