Pitcher
Justin’s Pick: Miles Mikolas
Miles Mikolas has seen a plethora of ups and downs this season, but he has been at his best at home. Through 10 home starts, he owns a 5-4 record with a 2.15 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP. He has also posted a 4.04 xFIP in St. Louis. Mikolas has held his opponents to 28.6% fly ball and 8.9% HR/FB rates through 67 home innings, as well. His opponents have struggled with a 35.2% hard hit rate to go along with an 18.6% soft hit rate in those games. Mikolas also owns a 17.9% strikeout rate at home this season. He gets a high upside matchup against the Chicago Cubs, who rank second on the slate in strikeouts per at-bat. They also feature roughly an average team wOBA on this slate. This game is a pick ‘em that has been set at 8.5 runs. Mikolas is an option that is best suited for tournaments, even on this slate.
Jason’s Reaction: I like Mikolas’ upside in tournaments. He isn’t a pitcher I’m targeting, but I understand this recommendation.
Jason’s Pick: Jordan Lyles
Tonight is an odd slate. Jose Berrios and Jacob deGrom should be owned at around 40-50 percent, and both of them are great options in cash games. The Mets’ ace is the better of the two based on his strikeout upside. Jordan Lyles is expected to be owned at less than 10 percent, and he has great upside in tournaments for his price tag. His strikeout prediction is over 7, and Vegas has this game set at 9 total runs. The Milwaukee Brewers are slight betting underdogs, giving the Oakland Athletics an implied run total of 4.7. Typically, this is a bad number to target, but with only eight games tonight, it makes sense. Lyles should be able to hit value, and a lot of games are going to be high-scoring.
Justin’s Reaction: I don’t mind anyone using Lyles in tournaments tonight, but I likely won’t be heading this route.
Infielder
Justin’s Pick: Austin Nola
The entire Seattle Mariners’ team is too cheap tonight. They get a matchup against Mike Minor, who is due for regression, as his ERA (3.00) doesn’t match his xFIP (4.45) or SIERA (4.37). Austin Nola has been one of the top options for Seattle recently, posting a .343 average with a .600 slugging percentage and 1.010 OPS over his last 10 games. He owns six extra-base hits (one home run) and six RBIs in those games. He boasts 40% hard hit and 48% fly ball rates with a 94 MPH exit velocity over that span, as well. Nola has also been at his best against left-handed pitching, as he brings 0.119 wOBA and 0.233 ISO differentials into this game. He’s only expected to hit sixth in the Mariners’ lineup, but he can be considered in all leagues for a low price tag on this slate.
Jason’s Reaction: Nola is a good, versatile option on DraftKings tonight, as he is eligible at both the second base and first base positions.
Jason’s Pick: Stephen Vogt
Stephen Vogt is expected to start tonight for the San Francisco Giants after pinch hitting a home run last night. He has great splits against right-handed pitching, boasting 0.193 ISO and 0.168 wOBA differentials, and Vince Velasquez struggles at times with the fly ball. Vogt should hit fifth tonight, and over the last 15 days, he has an average exit velocity on batted balls of 98 MPH, a fly ball rate over 50%, and a hard hit rate over 65%. His advanced metrics are fantastic, and his price tag is not all that high. Due to a lack of name recognition, the Giants’ catcher should be owned at less than five percent. He is a great, high-upside tournament option tonight.
Justin’s Reaction: I like this as a high upside option, but I’d rather go with someone cheaper like Tom Murphy at catcher.
Outfielder
Justin’s Pick: Max Kepler
There are a few elite high-priced options in the outfield tonight, but Max Kepler tops the list. He has been on fire recently, posting a .300 average with a .725 slugging percentage and a 1.103 OPS over his last 10 games. He boasts 7 extra-base hits (5 home runs) and 12 RBIs in those games, as well. Kepler possesses 42% hard hit and 37% fly ball rates with a 92 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days. He’ll be playing in a pitcher-friendly stadium, but he gets an elite matchup against Sandy Alcantara, who has struggled throughout the 2019 season. Kepler also enters this game with 0.04 wOBA and 0.074 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching. He’s leading off for the Minnesota Twins, and he makes an elite option in all leagues tonight.
Jason’s Reaction: I agree that Max Kepler is a great option tonight, but he does not top the list.
Jason’s Pick: Mookie Betts
Mookie Betts tops the list tonight for high-priced outfielders. I strongly considered Mike Yastrzemski in this recommendation spot, so take note that the San Francisco Giants’ squad is a decent stack option, but Betts is far too good to ignore. In the last 15 days, he has an average exit velocity on batted balls of 94 MPH, a fly ball rate of 45%, and a hard hit rate over 40%. The Boston Red Sox are expected to score over six runs tonight against the Tampa Bay Rays, and Betts is leading off. He has plenty of upside for his price tag, and in his last 10 games, he is averaging over 13 fantasy points per game. The value is available at other positions, so do not pass on Betts tonight.
Justin’s Reaction: You can’t say no to Betts. He’s a great option tonight.
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