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Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack
Boston Red Sox
The Boston Red Sox have found plenty of offensive success in 2019. They lead the league in runs scored and team batting average, while also ranking 10th in the MLB in home runs and second in OPS through 108 games. Boston has been at their best at home, where they are hitting for a .288 average with a .500 slugging percentage and a .859 OPS through 54 games. They are averaging 6.0 runs and 4.4 extra-base hits per game in those contests, as well. Tonight, the Red Sox are -144 favorites in a game set at 11 runs, giving them the highest implied run total on the slate at 6.1 runs.
Andrew Kittredge will draw the start for the Tampa Bay Rays, but Boston will play the majority of the game against Ryan Yarbrough. The latter owns a 9-3 record with a 3.78 ERA and a 0.93 WHIP through 17 games (5 starts). He has also posted a 4.19 xFIP and a 4.11 SIERA this season. Yarbrough has allowed a 33.2% fly ball rate, while holding his opponents to a 7.8% HR/FB rate. He has also held his opponents to a 30.5% hard hit rate in 2019, although he only owns a 17.8% soft hit rate. He brings 19.7% strikeout and 9.7% swinging strike rates into this game, as well. Yarbrough has been worse against left-handed batters in 2019, allowing them to hit for a .225 average with a .451 slugging percentage and a .299 wOBA. Surprisingly, he has been better on the road, where he has held his opponents to a .167/.244/.182 line this season. Still, he’ll be throwing in a hitter friendly stadium against one of the best offenses in the MLB. While the matchup is less than elite, Boston makes the top “Chalk Stack” tonight.
Important Odds: Vegas Stack
Texas Rangers
The Texas Rangers have featured a boom or bust offense this season, ranking seventh in the MLB in runs scored, 14th in home runs and OPS, and 15th in team batting average through 107 games. The Rangers have found more success at home in 2019, where they boast a .258 average with a .465 slugging percentage and a .794 OPS through 53 games. They are also averaging 5.6 runs and 3.6 extra-base hits per game in those contests. Texas is currently a -164 favorite in a game set at 10.5 runs, and they feature an implied run total of 6.0 runs tonight.
The Rangers get a matchup against Wade LeBlanc, who will throw the bulk of the innings in this game after Matt Wisler serves as the opener. LeBlanc has posted a 6-3 record with a 4.79 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP through 16 games (7 starts). He has also struggled with a 5.00 xFIP and a 4.69 SIERA. LeBlanc has struggled with 38.6% fly ball and 16.2% HR/FB rates in 2019, as well. He has given up a 34.1% hard hit rate, while posting only a 12.5% soft hit this season. He also brings 17.6% strikeout and 9.6% swinging strike rates into this game. LeBlanc has been at his worst against right-handed batters, allowing them to hit for a .281 average with a .485 slugging percentage and a .339 wOBA. He has also given up a .240/.507/.318 line to left-handed batters in 2019. Most importantly, LeBlanc has been at his worst on the road, where his opponents own a .325/.603/.388 line against him this season. He’ll be throwing in one of the more hitter friendly stadiums in the MLB tonight, and Texas features a high upside offense. They can be considered in both cash games and tournaments on this slate.
Wildcard GPP: Low Owned Stack
Seattle Mariners
The Seattle Mariners have seen plenty of ups and downs throughout 110 games this season. They currently rank 11th in the MLB in runs scored, fifth in home runs, 23rd in team batting average, and 13th in OPS. They have found more success on the road, where they have posted a .246 average with a .462 slugging percentage and a .781 OPS through 52 games. The Mariners are averaging 5.0 runs and 3.8 extra-base hits per game outside of Seattle this season, as well. They are +151 underdogs in a game set at 10.5 runs, and they own an implied run total of 4.6 runs.
Mike Minor will be taking the mound for the Texas Rangers tonight. He has looked outstanding through 21 starts, recording an 8-6 record with a 3.00 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP. He’s due for regression, though, as he has posted a 4.45 xFIP and a 4.36 SIERA this season. Minor has struggled with a 40.1% fly ball rate, while allowing a 13.3% HR/FB rate. He has given up a 36.3% hard hit rate, while recording a 19.9% soft hit rate in 2019. He also boasts 24.8% strikeout and 11.8% swinging strike rates this season. Minor has found similar success against both left- and right-handed batters. He’s allowing lefties to hit for a .235 average with a .391 slugging percentage and a .292 wOBA, while righties have posted a .230/.374/.293 line against him. Minor could feature some ownership tonight, and Seattle is far too cheap of a stack for this slate.
Hidden Gem: Value Pitcher
Vince Velasquez
Velasquez has seen mixed results through 22 games (12 starts) this season. He owns a 3-5 record with a 4.46 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP in those games. He has also posted a 4.55 xFIP and a 4.15 SIERA in 2019. He has struggled most with home runs, giving up 45.3% fly ball and 21% HR/FB rates this season. He has allowed a 46.4% hard hit rate, while recording a 16% soft hit rate, as well. Velasquez brings 27.3% strikeout and 12.1% swinging strike rates into this game, though. He’s a -134 favorite in a game set at 9.5 runs, giving his opponents an implied run total of 4.5 runs.
Velasquez gets a matchup against the San Francisco Giants, who strikeout at a relatively high price, while ranking last on the slate in team wOBA. Velasquez has been better against right-handed batters, holding them to a .240 average with a .500 slugging percentage and a .342 wOBA. He has also held his opponents to a .226/.524/.324 line at home in 2019. Velasquez can be considered in cash games on this slate, but he may be best suited for tournaments tonight.
Hidden Gems: Value Hitters
Tom Murphy
Murrphy has been playing well recently, posting a .297 average with a .541 slugging percentage and a .874 OPS over his last 10 games. He boasts five extra-base hits (two home runs) and seven RBIs over that span. Murphy owns 44% hard hit and fly ball rates to go along with a 92 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days. He also brings 0.124 wOBA and 0.09 ISO differentials against left-handed pitching into this game.
Murphy gets a matchup against Mike Minor, who has already been outlined above. He’s expected to hit fifth in the Seattle Mariners lineup tonight, and he makes an elite option in all leagues for his current price tag.
Follow Justin Bales on Twitter (@BalesSJustin)
