Pitchers
Noah Syndergaard- Thor is coming off of three straight strong starts (with increased strikeouts) and has arguably the best matchup on this slate against the White Sox. It’s also noteworthy that the increase in strikeouts could have to do with his increased slider usage, which has remained the same in each of his starts after the Mets fired their pitching coach. This is a huge pitch for him, and it would make sense that he’s able to generate more swings and misses, and strikeouts, when properly implementing it. This is a slate loaded with aces who are all in tough matchups, making Syndergaard, someone I typically don’t spend up on in DFS, my top play in the upper pricing tier. I will note that I could see myself going for a double spend down on a loaded offensive slate, especially when it is increasingly riskier that Syndergaard gets traded before the deadline.
Griffin Canning- Canning is arguably my favorite option on this slate when factoring in his price on both sites, and matchup with the Detroit Tigers. Canning has had a pretty solid debut season for the Halos, striking out 25% of batters faced with almost 14% swinging strikes. I’m not going to count his appearance out of the bullpen, which was his last outing, overall he’s been up-and-down over the last month or so but that’s nothing a matchup with the Tigers can’t fix. The Tigers remain the highest strikeout team in the majors against right-handed pitching, and this price just seems to low for the matchup — especially when he has good strikeout ability. Hopefully his recent form keeps people away, but I will end up overweight to the field at his price tag on both DK and FanDuel tonight.
With the top options on this slate in tough matchups, and Thor’s trade chances increasing, I’m likely to pull off a double spend down and pair Canning with one of Drew Smyly or Joe Musgrove. Both have positive matchups against the Giants and Reds respectively, and find themselves at $6,000 and $5,100 on DraftKings. The Giants come into tonight dead-last in wRC+ against lefties with a 24% strikeout rate, while the Reds are trotting out six righties for Musgrove to combat.
Note: Jake Odorizzi enters the cash game pool on FanDuel at his price of $7,300.
Building Blocks
Freddie Freeman- With Coors Field dominating the attention again tonight, that presents us an opportunity to get leverage when it comes to equally high-priced bats such as Freddie Freeman. Freeman continues to post the best numbers on this Braves team against right-handed pitchers, boasting a .462 xwOBA and a .270 ISO. He also matches up extremely well with Erick Fedde’s pitch mix, Fedde throws his sinker 40% of the time to left-handed batters — a pitch that Freeman owns over a .260 ISO against dating back to last season.
Bryce Harper- The benefit of potentially saving more than we are accustomed to at pitcher on a big slate like this, is the amount of bats we will be able to spend on. Bryce Harper has been heating up since the All-Star break, and he’s posted a 134 wRC+ with 41% hard-hits since the start of July. His .366 wOBA comes with a .460 xwOBA, and like Freeman, he matches up well with Tyler Beede’s pitch mix. Beede throws either a fastball or changeup over 75% of the time to left-handed batters — both pitches that Harper owns over a .200 ISO against over the last two seasons.
Potential Value Plays: Robel Garcia, Justin Upton, Juan Soto, Michael Conforto
Written by Ben Hossler (Follow @BenHossler on Twitter)
