Pitchers
Chris Sale- Sale comes in as the top overall option on this slate, and pretty much every slate he pitches on. After a rough April, Sale has rebounded and all of his advanced metrics are on par with the last few seasons. His matchup is strong tonight as well with the Toronto Blue Jays, who rank 21st in the league in wRC+ against southpaws with a 24% strikeout rate. Many will remember his most recent start against the Blue Jays in which he was chalk and labored through five innings, but I’m not worried seeing as he posted a .429 BABIP in that start despite just 13% hard hits allowed. Starts like those will happen, especially with how teams have been hitting this season, but this Blue Jays offense is not a good one and it’s a spot that easily makes Sale the top option in all formats.
Sonny Gray- Many will avoid Gray at his price in this matchup, but I think he fits in nicely (see below) with Buehler/Clevinger as a leverage play in tournaments on this slate. Gray is someone that I have been on since Spring Training, and he has surprised many pitching to a 4.03 SIERA with 26.5% strikeouts. People will be worried about the matchup, and while I rarely attack the Brewers with an opposing pitcher, in Gray’s case it makes sense. The most fearsome hitters in this Brewers lineup right now — Christian Yelich, Mike Moustakas, Eric Thames, Yasmani Grandal — are all left-handed, and Gray has been lights out against lefties this season posting a 2.90 xFIP with 31% strikeouts and 51% ground balls. He isn’t quite as strong against righties, but he counteracts that with 56% ground balls, making it really tough to beat him unless he beats himself with walks. Similar to Tyler Mahle on Monday, I don’t see him garnering much more than 5-7% ownership in what looks to be a better matchup for him than the public thinks.
Austin Pruitt- With the Rays optioning Ryan Yarbrough back to the minors for Austin Pruitt, the slate gets a whole new dynamic. We know have a true minimum priced pitcher, that *should* realistically thrown between 4-5 innings. Pruitt’s advanced metrics don’t stick out as, well, very good, but once upon a time (2018) this was a pitcher with a 30% strikeout rate in the minors. Even without the strikeouts, he doesn’t walk many batters and is able to get ground balls, which is why I think we can definitely expect the 4 innings out of him, and at his price, I will gladly take 4 innings against the Baltimore Orioles. I don’t think you need to go here on FanDuel, but on multi-pitcher sites, he may end up as a must play for me in cash games.
Note: With Sale being very clearly the top play in cash game builds, I will use that as an opportunity to get leverage with both Walker Buehler and Mike Clevinger in GPPs. Buehler had been absolutely on fire before a start in Coors Field, which I’m not worried about, and its only a matter of time before Clevinger knocks the rust off and posts a huge outing. He has had real trouble hitting the zone in his first two starts back, but his pitches/velocity look fine and I think it’s more of a case of rust than anything wrong with him.
Tournament Pool: Add Walker Buehler, Mike Clevinger, Danny Duffy
Building Blocks
DK Cash Game Core: Kyle Schwarber, Nolan Arenado, Trevor Story, JD Martinez
Value Options: Matt Beaty, Tyler O’Neill, Tyler White (if in lineup), Joey Votto
HR Pick: Kyle Schwarber (off the lead-off variety)
Favorite Tournament Stacks: Reds, Cubs, Dodgers
Written by Ben Hossler (Follow @BenHossler on Twitter)
