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Pitcher
Justin’s Pick: Walker Buehler
Walker Buehler has looked outstanding this season, posting an 8-1 record with a 3.43 ERA and a 0.97 WHIP through 16 starts. He also owns a 3.35 xFIP and a 3.52 SIERA in those games. Buehler is coming off of a tough start in Colorado in his last game, but he was playing at an elite level prior to that. In his four starts before throwing in Coors Field, Buehler averaged 38.5 fantasy points per game. He has been at his best at home, where his xFIP drops to 3.20, and his strikeout rate increases to 30.7%. Buehler gets a matchup against the Arizona Diamondbacks, who rank eighth on the slate in strikeouts per at-bat, while also ranking in the bottom-six in team wOBA. He’s a -255 favorite in a game set at 8 runs, and he’s an elite option for his price tag tonight.
Jason’s Reaction: Buehler is one of the best pitching options available tonight, but I’m opting to spend a little bit more of my salary to roster Chris Sale tonight.
Jason’s Pick: Chris Sale
Chris Sale is the best pitching option scheduled to take the mound tonight, and he will do so against the Toronto Blue Jays. His elite 13.9 K/9 is second highest on the slate, behind Jose Leclerc at 14.3, but Leclerc has only pitched 10 innings in his last 10 games. During that time span, he obviously has 15 strikeouts. Sale, on the other hand, has 106 strikeouts in 65.1 innings over his last 10 games. His strikeout prediction is approaching double-digits, and Vegas has this game set at 9.5 total runs. The Boston Red Sox are -300 favorites, giving the Blue Jays an implied run total of 3.6. Sale will be highly owned, but less so than usual with Walker Buehler available for a lower price tag. That makes him especially valuable in tournaments, but he can be rostered in all leagues.
Justin’s Reaction: I have no problems with Sale tonight, and he’s likely the better cash game option. I prefer Buehler in GPPs, though, as he’ll likely feature significantly less ownership than Sale.
Infielder
Justin’s Pick: Joey Votto
Joey Votto has somewhat quietly caught fire, as he’s hitting .342 with a .526 slugging percentage and a .958 OPS over his last 10 games. He owns three extra-base hits (two home runs), five RBIs, and one stolen base in those contests. He has also posted 42% hard hit and 45% fly ball rates with a 97 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days. Votto gets a plus matchup against Jhoulys Chacin in Cincinnati, and he enters this game with a 0.62 ISO differential against right-handed pitching. Votto’s expected to hit second in the Cincinnati Reds’ lineup, and he’s still reasonably priced on this slate. He can be considered in all leagues, as you’ll be looking to spend up on at least one pitcher tonight.
Jason’s Reaction: I recommended Votto yesterday on the podcast, and he makes for a great option again tonight. DraftKings will be forced to raise his price tag soon. Well, maybe (see Kyle Schwarber).
Jason’s Pick: Eric Thames
Eric Thames is in a great situation tonight. Sonny Gray is scheduled to take the mound for the Cincinnati Reds, and the Milwaukee Brewers are travelling to Cinci. The Reds’ stadium is notorious for how hitter-friendly it is, especially for power hitters. Thames is exactly that. He is hitting 0.056 HR/AB, and he enters tonight’s game with positive 0.170 ISO and 0.083 wOBA differentials. Thames, surprisingly, is also stealing 0.023 bases per game, so that is a little bit of added upside. In the last 15 days, he has an average batted ball distance of 256 feet, an average exit velocity on those batted balls of 98 MPH, a fly ball rate over 40%, and a hard hit rate over 55%. Does anyone else hear that? It sounds sort of like … a home run alert.
Justin’s Reaction: I agree that Thames is a great option, but I’m a bit worried about the matchup. Gray has allowed lefties to hit for only a .193 average with a .321 slugging percentage and a .243 wOBA. Those numbers have to regress, though, right?
Outfielder
Justin’s Pick: Aaron Judge
Aaron Judge has been playing at an elite level recently, posting a .343 average with a .629 slugging percentage and a 1.081 OPS over his last 10 games. He has also recorded four extra-base hits (three home runs) and seven RBI over that span. Furthermore, Judge owns 41% hard hit and 35% fly ball rates with a 95 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days. He gets an elite matchup against Jason Vargas tonight, and he brings 0.213 wOBA and 0.193 ISO differentials against left-handed pitching into this game. Vargas somehow continues to avoid regression, but he’s due for it at some point, and with Judge hitting second in the New York Yankees’ lineup, my bet is that it’s coming sooner rather than later. Judge isn’t particularly cheap, but he can be considered in all leagues.
Jason’s Reaction: The home run upside here is very real. There are very few scenarios in which I’ll bet against Judge; tonight is not one of them.
Jason’s Pick: Max Kepler
Max Kepler has actually struggled over his last 10 games. He is hitting just over .200 with 2 home runs and 3 RBIs. However, he has a ton of power, and tonight, the circumstances are in his favor. Kepler gets a semi-tough matchup against the Oakland Athletics and Mike Fiers, but he enters tonight’s game with positive 0.136 ISO and 0.076 wOBA differentials. He is hitting 0.06 HR/AB, and the Minnesota Twins are expected to score over 5 runs. In the last 15 days, Kepler has an average batted ball distance of 226 feet, an average exit velocity on those batted balls of 95 MPH, a fly ball rate over 45%, and a hard hit rate of 48%. He has been experiencing some bad luck at the plate of recent, which has brought his price tag down significantly. Get Kepler at value, especially considering he is a leadoff hitter in a very high-upside lineup.
Justin’s Reaction: Kepler is due to breakout soon, and I’m willing to take the chance on him tonight. He makes a great option.
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