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Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack
Houston Astros
The Houston Astros have dealt with a plethora of injuries this season, but they still rank 11th in the MLB in runs scored, seventh in home runs, fourth in team batting average, and third in OPS. Houston has been better on the road, where they own a .264 average with a .478 slugging percentage and a .813 OPS through 42 games. They are averaging 5.1 runs and 3.9 extra-base hits per game on the road, as well. The Astros are currently -133 favorites in a game set at 14.5 runs, giving them the highest implied run total on the slate at 7.8 runs.
Houston gets an elite matchup against Peter Lambert, who has struggled through five starts this season. He owns a 2-0 record with a 6.57 ERA and a 1.46 WHIP in those starts. He has also posted a 4.61 xFIP and a 4.70 SIERA this season. Lambert has held his opponents to a 31.8% fly ball rate, although he has given up a 25.9% HR/FB rate, as well. His opponents have posted a 44.8% hard hit rate to go along with only a 10.3% soft hit rate. Lambert has also struggled with strikeouts in 2019, posting 16.2% strikeout and 7.3% swinging strike rates. He has struggled more against left-handed batters, allowing them to hit for a .348 average with a .804 slugging percentage and a .469 wOBA. He has also given up a .286/.464/.333 line to left-handed batters this season. Furthermore, Lambert has allowed his opponents to post a .368/.789/.478 line in Colorado this season, although he has thrown limited innings. The Astros feature a high upside offense, and that should be on full display tonight.
Important Odds: Vegas Stack
Colorado Rockies
The Colorado Rockies have found plenty of success this season, specifically at home. Overall, they lead the MLB in runs scored and team batting average, while also ranking 19th in the league in home runs and seventh in OPS. The Rockies have been elite at home, where they are hitting .316 with a .541 slugging percentage and a .921 OPS through 42 games. They are also averaging 7.0 runs and 4.5 extra-base hits per game in those contests. Colorado is a +123 underdog in a game set at 14.5 runs, but they still feature an implied run total of 6.8 runs.
The Rockies get a matchup against Wade Miley tonight. He has posted a 6-4 record with a 3.39 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP through 17 starts this season. He’s due for regression, though, as he also owns a 4.30 xFIP and a 4.52 SIERA. Miley has found success with 30.8% fly ball and 16.5% HR/FB rates in 2019. He has also allowed only a 36.7% hard hit rate, while posting a 17.3% soft hit rate this season. He brings 20.5% strikeout and 9.6% swinging strike rates into this game, as well. Miley has been at his worst against right-handed batters, allowing them to hit for a .240 average with a .407 slugging percentage and a .307 wOBA. He has also struggled on the road, where his opponents have hit for a .254/.422/.318 line on the season. Miley’s xFIP increases to 4.95 on the road, and Colorado is the perfect stadium for him to find that regression. The Rockies are likely the second “Chalk Stack” on this slate, as this game should be featured heavily in cash games.
Wildcard GPP: Low Owned Stack
Atlanta Braves
The Atlanta Braves are coming off of a shutout, but they still rank seventh in the MLB in runs scored, eighth in home runs and team batting average, and sixth in OPS through 86 games. They have been elite in Atlanta, where they boast a .275 average with a .488 slugging percentage and a .841 OPS. The Braves are averaging 5.7 runs and 3.7 extra-base hits per game through 42 home games, as well. They are currently -124 favorites in a game set at 11 runs, and they own one of the higher implied run totals on the slate at 5.8 runs tonight.
Nick Pivetta will be taking the mound for the Philadelphia Phillies tonight. He has struggled quite a bit through 10 starts in 2019, posting a 4-2 record with a 5.63 ERA and a 1.52 WHIP. He has recorded a 4.55 xFIP and a 4.77 SIERA this season, as well. Pivetta’s opponents only own a 32.4% fly ball rate against him, although they have also posted a 24.6% HR/FB rate. He has also struggled with a 43.9% hard hit rate to go along with a 16.7% soft hit rate. Pivetta enters this game with 19.4% strikeout and 10% swinging strike rates, as well. He has been a reverse splits pitcher, allowing right-handed batters to hit for a .336 average with a .598 slugging percentage and a .405 wOBA. He has allowed lefties to hit for a .267/.534/.359 line this season, as well. Pivetta has also given up a .269/.567/.365 line on the road in 2019. Atlanta is a team that has found tremendous success at home this season, and there is nothing to suggest that Pivetta won’t continue to struggle on the road. If this were a smaller slate, Atlanta would likely feature plenty of ownership, giving us a slight edge with them in tournaments tonight.
Hidden Gem: Value Pitcher
Chris Archer
Archer has seen plenty of ups and downs this season, posting a 3-6 record with a 5.50 ERA and a 1.47 WHIP through 14 starts. He has also recorded a 4.72 xFIP and a 4.77 SIERA in those games. Archer has struggled with 40.1% fly ball and 22.8% HR/FB rates. He has also given up a 44.4% hard hit rate to go along with a 17.1% soft hit rate. Archer also boasts 24.7% strikeout and 12.2% swinging strike rates. Unfortunately, he’s a +122 underdog in a game set at 9.5 runs, giving his opponents an implied run total 5.1 runs tonight.
Archer gets a matchup against the Chicago Cubs, who rank eighth on the slate in strikeouts per at-bat, while also ranking as a below average offense in team wOBA. Archer has been slightly better against left-handed batters, holding them to a .233 average, although they own a .504 slugging percentage and a .346 wOBA against him. He has also been at his best at home, where he has held his opponents to a .230/.430/319 line. Archer is averaging 16.2 fantasy points per game over his last six starts, and he’s a strong tournament option tonight.
Hidden Gems: Value Hitters
Trevor Story
Is Story under the $4K baseline I use for my Hidden Gems? No, but he is far and away the best “value” on this slate. He’s currently the 13th most expensive shortstop on the slate, although a few players ahead of him are injured. Throughout his career, Story is hitting .318 with a .731 slugging percentage and a 1.127 OPS at home against left-handed pitching. He also owns a .412 ISO and a .457 wOBA in that situation.
Story gets a plus matchup against Wade Miley, who has been outlined above. Story is expected to hit second in the Colorado Rockies lineup, as well. He’s entirely too cheap, and he’ll likely be the highest owned player on this slate. Still, it’s difficult to avoid him in this situation at his current price tag.
Follow Justin Bales on Twitter (@BalesSJustin)
