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Pitcher
Justin’s Pick: Caleb Smith
This is off brand, but I absolutely hate the majority of the pitching options on this slate, so I’m taking the best overall arm. Caleb Smith has been an elite arm at home, where he boasts a 4-1 record with a 2.23 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP through seven starts. He also brings a 3.47 xFIP at home into this game. Smith has given up a 40% fly ball rate in Miami, but he has held his opponents to an 8.8% HR/FB rate in those games. He has also posted 36.3% hard hit and 16.5% soft hit rates through 40.1 home innings this season. Most importantly, Smith enters this game with a 32.5% strikeout rate in Marlins Park in 2019. He gets a tough matchup against the Arizona Diamondbacks, but this game is currently a pick ‘em set at only 7.5 runs. The Diamondbacks feature an implied run total of only 3.8 runs, and Smith can be used in all leagues tonight.
Jason’s Reaction: I love paying up for pitching, and Smith is the top option this evening.
Jason’s Pick: Merrill Kelly
If this article is going to be off brand, let’s go off brand, shall we? Merrill Kelly is scheduled to take the mound for the Arizona Diamondbacks tonight, the team that faces off against Caleb Smith and the Miami Marlins. He is the cheaper option, but it is worthwhile to stack this game. The 30-year-old right-hander is averaring a little over 7 strikeouts per 9 innings pitched, and the Marlins have a horrible offense. As Justin mentioned above, this game is set at very close to even right now via Vegas, which gives the Marlins an implied run total of only 3.9. With only 7 games on tonight’s MLB slate, and only one game under 9.5 total runs, stacking is not necessarily a bad thing, even though one pitcher will not acquire a win.
Justin’s Reaction: I don’t mind Kelly because of the slate tonight, but I do worry about his road struggles.
Infielder
Justin’s Pick: Anthony Rendon
Anthony Rendon is close to a lock on this slate. He has been on fire recently, posting a .324 average with a .568 slugging percentage and a 1.012 OPS over his last 10 games. He boasts 5 extra-base hits (2 home runs) and 11 RBIs in those games, as well. He brings 48% hard hit and 51% fly ball rates to go along with a 95 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days into this game. Rendon gets a plus matchup against Dallas Keuchel, and he has looked elite against left-handed pitching this season. Through 89 at-bats against lefties, Rendon owns a .315 average with a .629 slugging percentage, 1.064 OPS, .315 ISO, and .427 wOBA. He’s expected to hit third in the Washington Nationals’ lineup, and he makes an elite option in all leagues on this smaller slate.
Jason’s Reaction: Rendon has been absurd of recent. He can be rostered in all leagues.
Jason’s Pick: Joc Pederson
Is anyone sick of the Joc Pederson recommendation yet? Well, even if you are, too bad. Pederson’s price tag is on the rise tonight, but only because the Los Angeles Dodgers are travelling to Colorado. Jon Gray is on the mound for the Rockies, and Pederson will enter the game with 0.206 ISO and 0.120 wOBA differentials. In the last 15 days, he has an average exit velocity on batted balls of 95 MPH, a fly ball rate over 40%, and a hard hit rate over 50%. It would be surprising if Pederson did not hit a home run tonight. There is no reason to avoid him, especially since his price tag should be closer to $6.0K. Pederson will remain the Dodgers’ leadoff man, and he needs to be rostered in all leagues.
Justin’s Reaction: Joc Pederson was going to be my recommendation, and he makes an elite option in Coors tonight.
Outfielder
Justin’s Pick: Jesse Winker
Jesse Winker continues to play well, as he owns a .310 average with a .517 slugging percentage and a .946 OPS over his last 10 games. He has also posted four extra-base hits (one home run) and four RBIs in those games. Over the last 15 days, he has recorded a 39% hard hit rate with a 91 MPH exit velocity, as well. Winker has also been better at home, where he boasts a .297/.535/.898 line this season. He gets a plus matchup against Jordan Lyles, and Winker brings .162 wOBA and .23 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching into this game. He’s leading off for the Cincinnati Reds, and with limited salary relief options on this slate, he makes a great play for a reasonable price tag.
Jason’s Reaction: As long as Winker is in the lineup tonight, he can be paired with Josh VanMeter (see below).
Jason’s Pick: Josh VanMeter
Since Joc Pederson is such an obvious recommendation, I’ll spare the Karma readership from another Shohei Ohtani write-up, but just know, he is a great option. Instead, Josh VanMeter makes the ‘Battle of the Bales’ list for the first time this season. VanMeter only has 69 at-bats this season, but he has made the most of them, hitting .319 with 4 home runs and 10 RBIs. In his last 10 games, he is hitting .500 with 4 home runs and 6 RBIs. Tonight, he gets a good matchup against the Pittsburgh Pirates and Jordan Lyles. This game is in Cincinnati, which is a very hitter-friendly ballpark, and VanMeter is too cheap on DraftKings right now, especially considering he is hitting fifth in the batting order. Roster him in all leagues, as his price tag adjusts to his production level.
Justin’s Reaction: You’re going to need to find some value on this slate, and VanMeter is that. If he’s starting (and hitting fifth), he’ll make a great option.
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