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Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack
Minnesota Twins
The Minnesota Twins have found elite offensive success this season, ranking third in the MLB in runs scored, first in home runs and OPS, and second in team batting average through 103 games. Minnesota has found significantly more success on the road, where they boast a .280 average with a .521 slugging percentage and a .858 OPS through 51 games. They are averaging 6.1 runs and 4.3 extra-base hits per game in those contests, as well. The Twins are -172 favorites in a game set at 11 runs, giving them the highest implied run total on the slate at 6.3 runs.
Minnesota gets a great matchup against Ivan Nova, who has struggled through 21 starts this season. In those starts, he has posted a 5-9 record with a 5.49 ERA and a 1.49 WHIP. He also owns a 4.77 xFIP and a 5.03 SIERA in 2019. Nova has held his opponents to a 29.6% fly ball rate, but he has given up a 19.5% HR/FB rate. He has also allowed his opponents to post a 36% hard hit rate against him, while recording only a 17.9% soft hit rate. He brings 14.9% strikeout and 9% swinging strike rates into this game, as well. Nova has struggled similarly against left- and right-handed batters in 2019. He is allowing lefties to hit for a .310 average with a .532 slugging percentage and a .367 wOBA, while righties have recorded a .310/.504/.365 line against him this season. Nova has also given up a .296/.526/.359 line to his opponents at home this season. Minnesota features one of the most powerful (and consistent) offenses in the MLB, and there’s very little reason to believe Nova will be able to slow them down tonight.
Important Odds: Vegas Stack
Cincinnati Reds
The Cincinnati Reds have struggled offensively this season, ranking only 24th in the MLB in runs scored, 17th in home runs, and 21st in team batting average and OPS through 101 games. The Reds have found more success at home, where they are hitting for a .251 average with a .436 slugging percentage and a .761 OPS through 50 games. They are also averaging 4.5 runs and 3.0 extra-base hits per game over that span. Cincinnati is a -164 favorite in a game set at 10.5 runs tonight, and they feature one of the highest implied run totals on the slate at 6.0 runs.
The Reds get a great matchup against Chi Chi Gonzalez tonight. He has only thrown in three games this season, recording an 0-2 record with a 5.14 ERA and a 1.79 WHIP. He has struggled with a 5.12 xFIP and a 5.92 SIERA, as well. Gonzalez has given up a 20% HR/FB rate in 2019, but he has also held his opponents to a 22.2% fly ball rate this season. He has allowed them to record a 39.1% hard hit rate to go along with a 15.2% soft hit rate, as well. Furthermore, he has struggled with 15.4% strikeout and 7.4% swinging strike rates since joining the Colorado Rockies. Gonzalez has been significantly worse against left-handed batters, allowing them to hit for a .357 average with a .679 slugging percentage and a .465 wOBA. He has also given up a .333/.389/.362 line on the road. Keep in mind, these numbers are in limited innings, and are subject to change, although he has historically been worse against left-handed batters. Regardless, I expect Cincinnati to find plenty of success in this matchup, as Gonzalez is far from an MLB-caliber pitcher.
Wildcard GPP: Low Owned Stack
Milwaukee Brewers
The Milwaukee Brewers have featured an above average offense through 105 games this season. They currently rank 14th in the MLB in runs scored, fourth in home runs, 18th in team batting average, and ninth in OPS. They have been better in Milwaukee, where they own a .259 average with a .463 slugging percentage and a .803 OPS. They are averaging 4.9 runs and 3.4 extra-base hits per game through 55 home games, as well. The Brewers are -114 favorites in a game set at 9.5 runs, and they own an implied run total of 4.9 runs tonight.
Jon Lester will be taking the mound for the Chicago Cubs tonight. He has thrown well through 19 starts, posting a 9-6 record with a 3.87 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP. He has also recorded a 4.10 xFIP and a 4.14 SIERA this season. Lester enters this game with 34.7% fly ball and 15.8% HR/FB rates. He has posted a 39.3% hard hit rate to go along with a 16.2% soft hit rate in 2019, as well. He also brings 22.6% strikeout and 8.4% swinging strike rates into this game. Lester has struggled more against right-handed batters, allowing them to hit for a .278 average with a .477 slugging percentage and a .332 wOBA. He has given up a .287/.426/.321 line to left-handed pitching this season, as well, though. He has also allowed his opponents to hit for a .269/.473/.339 line on the road in 2019. Milwaukee is a powerful offense, who comes with elite upside, and they’re likely going to feature low ownership because of Lester’s name value on this slate.
Hidden Gem: Value Pitcher
Steven Matz
Matz has seen plenty of ups and downs this season, as he owns a 5-6 record with a 4.75 ERA and a 1.46 WHIP through 20 games (18 starts). His ERA drops to only 2.54 at home, though. Matz has posted a 3.53 xFIP at home this season. He brings 29.5% fly ball and 10.7% HR/FB rates at home into this game. Furthermore, he has held his opponents to a 36.3% hard hit rate with a 17.7% soft hit rate in New York. Most importantly, Matz’s strikeout rate increases to 27.3% at home in 2019. He’s a -133 favorite in a game set at 9.5 runs, giving his opponents an implied run total of 4.5 runs tonight.
Matz gets a plus matchup against the Pittsburgh Pirates, who don’t strikeout at a high rate on the slate, but feature a below average team wOBA. Matz has been better against right-handed batters this season, holding them to a .270 average with a .493 slugging percentage and a .340 wOBA. He has also held his opponents to a .248/.369/.296 line at home this season. Matz can be considered in all leagues on this slate, but he may be best suited for tournaments.
Hidden Gems: Value Hitters
Brian McCann
McCann has been playing at a high level, posting a .316 average with a .553 slugging percentage and a .886 OPS over his last 10 games. He owns five extra-base hits (two home runs) and four RBIs over that span. McCann also boasts 65% hard hit and 42% fly ball rates to go along with a 99 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days. He brings 0.151 wOBA and 0.185 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching into this game.
McCann gets a plus matchup against Zach Eflin, who has been at his worst against left-handed batters. He’s allowing lefties to post a .274 average with a .538 slugging percentage and a .358 wOBA. He has also struggled with a 5.28 xFIP against lefties in 2019. Furthermore, Eflin has given up 44.1% fly ball and 17.9% HR/FB rates to left-handed batters this season, as well. McCann is expected to hit sixth in the Atlanta Braves lineup, and he’s a great salary relief option at catch tonight.
Follow Justin Bales on Twitter (@BalesSJustin)
