Pitchers
Zack Greinke- On a slate headlined by Hyun-Jin Ryu, Lance Lynn and Grienke himself at the top, Greinke sets up to be the chalky cash game option in a matchup with the Miami Marlins. Greinke has shown the true example of “knowing how to pitch” with his velocity decreasing yearly but the overall results remaining pretty much the same. It’s hard to accurately describe just how bad this Marlins offense has been, but they have five 20%+ strikeout rates in the lineup tonight, with only TWO batters featuring a wOBA above .330 against right-handed pitching. I definitely can see spending down at both pitcher slots in tournaments tonight, but for cash games, Greinke seems like the safest option in this matchup with it taking place in arguably the most pitcher-friendly ballpark in the league.
Jack Flaherty- While I think the move in cash games tonight is Greinke and our next guest, I don’t think we should be overlooking Jack Flaherty at his sub-$8,000 price tag. Sure, he has one of the toughest matchups on the slate against a very patient Houston Astros offense, but there are reasons to believe Flaherty can find success against them. For starters, this game is at home for him in St. Louis, where he has pitched much better this season. His xFIP improves by over a run at home, with the strikeouts rising by 3% to 28% overall. Secondly, he has been lights out against right-handed batters this season and he projects to see six-seven of them tonight for Houston. With over a 30% strikeout rate to righties, something has to give, and there is reason to believe that he can have a good start against them — especially at this price tag.
Jose Urquidy- Urquidy came out in his last start and dropped 34 DK points against the Texas Rangers…and got a price DECREASE! While the St. Louis Cardinals offense has finally awoken from its multi-month slumber, these results from Urquidy are not surprising given how good he looked in the minors this season for the Astros. I’m not expecting another 30+ DK points from him, but at the price of only $5,000 — he doesn’t need that. We can take these savings in cash games while still playing Greinke and whatever bats we want and simply hope for around 14-15 fantasy points. I do expect him to be high-owned, so stacking against him in GPPs could be a fruitful move.
Building Blocks
Freddie Freeman- With the opportunity to spend down at pitching tonight, roster options become much more flexible than normal and that has me focused on Freddie Freeman as my top play in all formats. Jake Arrieta has continued to struggle with left-handed batters this season, pitching to a 5.38 xFIP with 14.5% strikeouts in the split compared to a 3.87 mark with 20% K’s to righties. We know that Freeman has the best raw numbers on the Braves against right-handed pitchers on this Braves team — but he also matches up well with Arrieta’s pitch mix. Arrieta throws over 50% sinkers to both sides of the plate, a pitch that Freeman owns a .265 ISO against over the last two seasons.
Michael Conforto- Conforto finds himself in a similar matchup to Freeman tonight, against Dario Agrazal. I absolutely love the Mets in tournaments tonight, as Agrazal has greatly outperformed his actual pitching ability. Through 28 IP this season, Agrazal boasts a 2.25 ERA compared to a 6.19 SIERA with only 10% strikeouts. He has 0 swing and miss ability, and is due to get rocked. Against lefties he allows 47% fly balls, and Conforto comes into tonight with a .451 xwOBA against right-handed pitching. Like Arrieta, Agrazal’s most-used pitch to left-handed batters is his sinker, a pitch that Conforto has destroyed to the tune of a .508 xwOBA and a .374 ISO!
Yoan Moncada- With those expected savings at pitcher, I’ve focused on two mid-tier bats rather than a value bat as I don’t anticipate it being hard to build around these three players in a single lineup tonight. Moncada has been seeing the ball extremely well since the All-Star break with 39% hard hits and 45% fly balls over the last 14 days. His opponent, Michael Pineda, allows 44% fly balls and hard hits to right-handed batters, and of the 17 long balls he’s surrendered this season — 12 have been to righties. This plays into Moncada’s strength, as he owns a .247 ISO vs right-handed pitching this season…the highest mark on this White Sox team.
Written by Ben Hossler (Follow @BenHossler on Twitter)
